[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 11 October 22 issued 2330 UT on 11 Oct 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Oct 12 10:30:53 EST 2022
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/11 OCTOBER 2022
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 12 OCTOBER - 14 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Oct: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M3.9 0842UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
M1.5 1052UT possible lower European
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Oct: 150/105
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
12 Oct 13 Oct 14 Oct
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 150/105 150/105 146/100
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 11-Oct was at the R1 level,
due to a M3.9 flare at 11/0842UT and a M1.5 flare at 11/1052UT.
Both flares originated from AR3112 (N22W56, beta-gamma) and had
accompanying type II radio bursts. There are currently five numbered
sunspot regions visible on the solar disk. AR3112 is the most
magnetically complex region and has shown decay in its trailer
spots. AR3119 (N29W17, beta) has exhibited growth in its intermediate
spots. All other sunspot regions are either stable or in decay.
Solar activity is expected to be at R0-R1 levels over 12-14 Oct.
A low velocity west-directed CME was observed, visible in LASCO
C2 and STEREO-A coronagraph imagery from 11/0924UT. This CME
is likely associated with the M3.9 flare from AR3112. Model runs
indicate there is a slight chance this CME contains an Earth-directed
component, with a glancing blow possible on 15-Oct. An additional
west-directed CME was observed, visible in LASCO C2 imagery from
11/1136UT, likely associated with the M1.5 flare from AR3112.
Modelling suggests this CME is not geoeffective. No other Earth-directed
CMEs were observed. The solar wind speed on UT day 11-Oct was
elevated with a declining trend, ranging from 370 to 535 km/s,
and is currently near 370 km/s. The peak total interplanetary
field strength (IMF, Bt) was 5 nT, and the north-south IMF component
(Bz) range was +2 to -4. The solar wind speed is expected to
continue to decline to background levels over 12-14 Oct.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Oct: G0
Estimated Indices 11 Oct : A K
Australian Region 3 11101122
Cocos Island 2 10001121
Darwin 3 11101112
Townsville 4 21102122
Learmonth 3 20001122
Alice Springs 3 11101112
Gingin 3 20001122
Canberra 1 10001111
Hobart 2 11101111
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 11 Oct :
Macquarie Island 2 12110000
Casey 9 33322122
Mawson 25 53223246
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8 2313 1122
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
12 Oct 8 G0
13 Oct 6 G0
14 Oct 6 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 11-Oct. Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions were
observed in the Antarctic region, with isolated periods of G1
and G2 at Mawson. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected over
12-14 Oct.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Oct Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
13 Oct Normal Normal Normal
14 Oct Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions are expected over 12-14
Oct.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
11 Oct 104
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 35% during local day.
Enhanced by 60% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 55% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 74
Oct 69
Nov 69
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
12 Oct 100 10 to 15% above predicted monthly values
13 Oct 100 10 to 15% above predicted monthly values
14 Oct 100 10 to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 11-Oct were
mostly near predicted monthly values to 15-25% enhanced. Spread
F was observed during local night hours at Hobart. MUFs are expected
to be near predicted monthly values to 10-15% enhanced over 12-14
Oct. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 10 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.5E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 3.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:13%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B7.1
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Oct
Speed: 495 km/sec Density: 6.9 p/cc Temp: 271000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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