[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 10 October 22 issued 2330 UT on 10 Oct 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Oct 11 10:30:55 EST 2022
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/10 OCTOBER 2022
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 11 OCTOBER - 13 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Oct: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.0 0047UT possible lower West Pacific
M2.4 1628UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Oct: 163/117
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
11 Oct 12 Oct 13 Oct
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 162/116 159/113 155/109
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 10-Oct was at the R1 level,
due to a long duration M2.4 flare at 10/1628UT and a M1.0 flare
at 10/0047UT. Both flares originated from AR3112 (N22W42, beta-gamma).
There are currently five numbered sunspot regions visible on
the solar disk. AR3112 is the most magnetically complex region
and has exhibited growth in its trailer spots. AR3119 (N29W03,
beta) has also shown growth in its trailer spots. All other sunspot
regions are either stable or in decay. Solar activity is expected
to be at R0-R1 levels over 11-13 Oct. A prominence eruption off
the northeast limb was observed, visible in GOES SUVI imagery
from 10/0310UT. A subsequent northeast-directed CME was observed
in LASCO C2 and STEREO-A coronagraph imagery from 10/0836UT.
This CME is not considered geoeffective. Several other CMEs were
observed, but none are considered geoeffective. The solar wind
speed on UT day 10-Oct was elevated with a declining trend, ranging
from 475 to 595 km/s, and is currently near 480 km/s. The peak
total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 6 nT, and the
north-south IMF component (Bz) range was +4 to -5. The solar
wind speed is expected to continue to decline over 11-13 Oct.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Oct: G0
Estimated Indices 10 Oct : A K
Australian Region 6 22131212
Cocos Island 5 22131210
Darwin 5 22121212
Townsville 6 22131212
Learmonth 7 32130212
Alice Springs 6 22131212
Gingin 6 32120222
Canberra 4 22120211
Hobart 7 23230221
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 10 Oct :
Macquarie Island 6 23230210
Casey 18 55331222
Mawson 26 34243455
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 21 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 58 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 14
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 18
Planetary 22 4444 3433
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
11 Oct 10 G0
12 Oct 8 G0
13 Oct 6 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 10-Oct. Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions were
observed in the Antarctic region, with periods of G1 at Casey
and Mawson. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected over 11-13
Oct.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Oct Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
12 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
13 Oct Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions are expected over 11-13
Oct.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
10 Oct 88
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 35% during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Enhanced by 40% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 50% during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 74
Oct 69
Nov 69
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
11 Oct 90 10 to 15% above predicted monthly values
12 Oct 90 10 to 15% above predicted monthly values
13 Oct 90 10 to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 10-Oct were
mostly near predicted monthly values. Enhancements were observed
during local night in Northern Australia. Spread F was observed
during local night hours at Hobart. MUFs are expected to be near
predicted monthly values to 10-15% enhanced over 11-13 Oct.
Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 09 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 3.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:11%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B9.9
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Oct
Speed: 557 km/sec Density: 11.3 p/cc Temp: 599000 K Bz: -3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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