[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 09 October 22 issued 2330 UT on 09 Oct 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Oct 10 10:30:55 EST 2022
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/09 OCTOBER 2022
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 10 OCTOBER - 12 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Oct: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Oct: 161/115
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
10 Oct 11 Oct 12 Oct
Activity R0,chance of R1 R0,chance of R1 R0,chance of R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 160/114 160/114 160/114
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 09-Oct was at the R0 level.
Solar region AR3112(N22W28, beta) produced low level C class
flare activity. This region generally showed decline over the
UT day, though with some minor spot redevelopment late in the
UT day. Solar region AR3119(N29E11, beta) continued to show growth.
Small solar region AR3118(N09E23, beta) has shown slight growth.
Two solar regions are about to rotate off disk, and there are currently
7 numbered solar regions on the solar disk. Solar flare activity
is expected to be R0, with a chance of isolated R1 flare activity.
Two small solar filament eruptions were observed at S25E40 and
S40W10. The southeast filament eruption was associated with a
southeast directed CME observed in LASCO and STEREO-A coronagraph
images, from around 09/0324UT in LASCO C2. Event modelling shows
that this CME is not Earth directed. The solar wind speed on
UT day 09-Oct unexpectedly steadily increased ranging from 497
to 605 km/s. The steady increase in speed without enhancement
in the other solar wind parameters implies a coronal hole wind
stream influence, rather than any possible CME induced activity,
perhaps originating from a patchy group of elongated thin coronal
holes and weak solar magnetic field structures visible in the
southern solar hemisphere in SDO193 imagery. There is no 27 day
pattern evident for this solar wind speed increase. The peak
total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 7nT, and the
north-south IMF component (Bz) range was +5 to -6, with frequent
mild fluctuations southward.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Oct: G0
Estimated Indices 09 Oct : A K
Australian Region 14 22244323
Cocos Island 10 22233322
Darwin 12 22234323
Townsville 16 22344333
Learmonth 18 32245333
Alice Springs 12 22234323
Gingin 17 32244433
Canberra 11 22233323
Hobart 14 22344322
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 09 Oct :
Macquarie Island 34 34465533
Casey 22 45433333
Mawson 71 65444767
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 2 (Quiet)
Gingin 18 (Quiet)
Canberra 17 (Quiet)
Hobart 12 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 18
Planetary 25
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 10 1232 3322
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
10 Oct 16 G0, slight chance of G1
11 Oct 14 G0, slight chance of G1
12 Oct 8 G0
COMMENT: Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the
Australian region on UT day 09-Oct, with an isolated G1 period
observed at Learmonth, WA. G1 to G3 activity was observed at
times in the Antarctic region. This unexpected mild increase
in geomagnetic activity is associated with a steady increase
in solar wind speed possibly from a pattern of thin elongated
coronal holes in the southern solar hemisphere, rather than activity
induced by a CME. The mild increase in geomagnetic activity is
expected to continue today then decline. There is a slight chance
for a weak CME arrival on 11-Oct.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Oct Normal Normal-fair Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Oct Normal Fair-normal Fair
11 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
12 Oct Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF conditions at middle to high latitudes became degraded
during local night hours on 09-Oct. HF conditions are expected
to be fair to normal at middle latitudes and fair at high latitudes
for 10-Oct, then improving 11-12 Oct.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
09 Oct 101
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 20-45%.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15%.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15-20%.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 74
Oct 69
Nov 69
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
10 Oct 80 10 to 15% above predicted monthly values northern
Australian region. 15% depressed to near normal
southern Australian region.
11 Oct 95 10 to 20% above predicted monthly values
12 Oct 95 10 to 20% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 09-Oct were
mostly near predicted monthly values to 15-45% enhanced. Strong
daytime enhancements were observed at Cocos Island. Strong spread
F was observed during local night hours at Hobart 09/15-19UT.
Mild depressions of 15% were observed after local dawn at Hobart,
Canberra and Brisbane following mild overnight geomagnetic activity.
These depressions are not expected to continue and generally
enhanced MUFs are expected in the Australian region for today
with HF conditions improving for the southern Australian region.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 08 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 3.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:12%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B7.8
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 Oct
Speed: 499 km/sec Density: 7.5 p/cc Temp: 256000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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