[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 08 October 22 issued 2330 UT on 08 Oct 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Oct 9 10:30:50 EST 2022
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/08 OCTOBER 2022
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 09 OCTOBER - 11 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Oct: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Oct: 157/111
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
09 Oct 10 Oct 11 Oct
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 156/110 156/110 156/110
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 08-Oct was at the R0 level.
Solar region AR3112(N22W15, beta) produced most of the C class
flare activity, the largest was a C6 flare at 08/0040UT. Solar
region AR3112 remains the largest region on the solar disk, and
has slightly declined in area and number of reported spots. Nearby
AR3116(N31W10, beta) that produced yesterdays M1 flare has been
quiet and stable. Region AR3119(N27E22, beta) is a small region
which is currently showing growth and produced a single low level
C flare. There are currently 7 numbered solar regions on the
solar disk. Other regions are small and uninteresting. A faint
westward CME was observed in LASCO C2 imagery from 08/0642UT
and STEREO-A from 08/0623UT and is possibly associated with activity
just behind the NW limb in SDO094 imagery at N23, and is considered
to be not Earth directed. Solar activity is expected to be at
R0 levels, with the chance of an isolated low level R1 event.
The solar wind speed on UT day 08-Oct was moderately elevated
ranging from 480 to 550 km/s. The solar wind speed data appears
to be noisy so true peak wind speed may be lower. The peak total
interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 6nT, and the north-south
IMF component (Bz) range was +5 to -6, with frequent mild fluctuations
southward. The solar wind speed is expected to remain elevated
with an overall declining trend in coming days, though solar
wind parameters may become enhanced on 09-Oct due to a possible
weak CME impact.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Oct: G0
Estimated Indices 08 Oct : A K
Australian Region 9 23223222
Cocos Island 10 2-423221
Darwin 9 23223222
Townsville 9 23223222
Learmonth 11 23323322
Alice Springs 9 23223222
Gingin 9 22223322
Canberra 8 23213222
Hobart 9 13223322
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 08 Oct :
Macquarie Island 17 13345331
Casey 19 45423223
Mawson 34 34533465
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 6 (Quiet)
Canberra 8 (Quiet)
Hobart 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 14
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 14 4332 3411
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
09 Oct 20 G0, chance of G1
10 Oct 10 G0
11 Oct 14 G0, slight chance of G1
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 08-Oct. Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions were
observed in the Antarctic region, with isolated periods of G1
observed at Macquarie Island and Casey, and isolated G1 and G2
periods observed at Mawson. Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions
are expected on 09-Oct, with a chance of reaching G1 due to a
possible impact from a CME first observed on 05-Oct. There is
also a slight chance for a weak CME arrival on 11-Oct.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Oct Normal Normal Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Oct Normal Normal-fair Fair
10 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
11 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions are expected over 09-11-Oct,
with degraded conditions possible on 09-Oct for middle to high
latitudes, during local night hours.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
08 Oct 108
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 30-45%.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 25-30%.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 20-45%.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15-20%.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
No data available over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 74
Oct 69
Nov 69
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
09 Oct 95 10 to 20% above predicted monthly values
10 Oct 95 10 to 20% above predicted monthly values
11 Oct 95 10 to 20% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 08-Oct were
near predicted monthly values to 15-45% enhanced. Enhanced MUFs
expected for today with generally good HF conditions. Mildly
degraded HF conditions are possible during local night hours
09-Oct, southern Australian region only. MUFs are expected to
be 10-20% above predicted monthly values on 09-11-Oct. Isolated
minor shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 07 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.3E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 3.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:11%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B8.6
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 Oct
Speed: 499 km/sec Density: 9.4 p/cc Temp: 324000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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