[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 07 October 22 issued 2330 UT on 07 Oct 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Oct 8 10:30:59 EST 2022
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/07 OCTOBER 2022
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 08 OCTOBER - 10 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Oct: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.0 1445UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Oct: 160/114
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
08 Oct 09 Oct 10 Oct
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 160/114 158/112 156/110
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 07-Oct was at the R1 level
due to a single M1 flare from solar region AR3116 (N31E03, beta).
This region also produced several low level C class flares. Solar
region AR3112 (N22W02, beta), currently the largest region on
the solar disk has reduced in magnetic complexity, producing
only low level C class flare activity. AR3116 and AR3112 are
in close proximity and the relatively long duration M1 event
appeared to perhaps trigger a flare in AR3112, visible in SDO
094 imagery at 07/1224-1345UT, though it was not visible in US
GONG H-alpha imagery. All other sunspot regions are relatively
minor, with AR3119(N27E35, beta) showing growth. There are eight
numbered sunspot regions on the visible disk. No Earth-directed
CMEs have been observed. A faint narrow mostly north directed
CME was observed in LASCO C2 from 07/0848UT and in STEREO-A, but
could not be confidently correlated to on disk Earth side solar
activity, possibly from minor plasma motion east of AR3111(N28W51)
at around 07/0800UT. Assuming this location subsequent initial
modelling suggests a possible weak arrival on 11-Oct. Solar activity
is expected to be at R0-R1 levels over 08-10 Oct. The solar wind
speed on UT day 07-Oct was elevated, ranging from 443 to 518
km/s. The solar wind initially showed an overall declining trend,
with a weak discontinuity in solar wind speed, density and temperature
evident at 07/0955UT (though the total field parameter remained
enhanced and steady), the solar wind speed then subsequently
increased, and is currently near 520km/sec. This is probably
a very weak partial signature of a recently erupting solar filament.
The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 8
nT, and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was +6 to -7,
with brief mild fluctuations southward at times. The solar wind
speed is expected to remain elevated with an overall declining
trend in coming days, though solar wind parameters my become
enhanced on 09-Oct due to a possible CME impact.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Oct: G0
Estimated Indices 07 Oct : A K
Australian Region 10 33223312
Cocos Island 7 33222110
Darwin 10 33223311
Townsville 10 33223312
Learmonth 11 33223322
Alice Springs 10 23323312
Gingin 9 32223312
Canberra 11 23333311
Hobart 11 23333312
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 07 Oct :
Macquarie Island 26 23446511
Casey 19 45433222
Mawson 18 54333231
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 22 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 19 (Quiet)
Hobart 4 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 17
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 14
Planetary 15 2233 3343
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
08 Oct 12 G0
09 Oct 20 G0, chance G1
10 Oct 10 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 07-Oct. Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions were
observed in the Antarctic region, with isolated periods of G1
and G2 at Macquarie Island and a G1 period at Casey and Mawson.
G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected on 08-Oct. Mostly G0 geomagnetic
conditions are expected on 09-Oct, with a chance of G1 due to
a possible impact from a CME first observed on 05-Oct.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Oct Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
09 Oct Normal Normal-fair Fair
10 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions are expected over 08-10-Oct,
with degraded conditions possible on 09-Oct for middle to high
latitudes.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
07 Oct 90
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 20-50%.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15-20%.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
No data available over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 74
Oct 69
Nov 69
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
08 Oct 90 10 to 15% above predicted monthly values
09 Oct 90 10 to 15% above predicted monthly values
10 Oct 90 10 to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 07-Oct were
near predicted monthly values to 15-20% enhanced, with strongly
enhanced MUFs observed at Cocos Island. Spread F was observed
at Perth and Hobart during local night hours. Degraded HF conditions
are possible during local night hours 09-Oct, southern Australian
region only. Very mildly depressed MUFs were observed after local
dawn at Hobart but are not expected to persist. MUFs are expected
to be 10-15% above predicted monthly values on 08-10-Oct. Shortwave
fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 06 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.9E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 3.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.20E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 8%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B8.4
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Oct
Speed: 502 km/sec Density: 9.6 p/cc Temp: 288000 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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