[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 06 October 22 issued 2331 UT on 06 Oct 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Oct 7 10:31:04 EST 2022
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/06 OCTOBER 2022
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 07 OCTOBER - 09 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Oct: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Oct: 156/110
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
07 Oct 08 Oct 09 Oct
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 156/110 154/109 154/109
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 06-Oct was at the R0 level,
with several C-class flares. There are currently six numbered
sunspot regions visible on the solar disk and one unnumbered
region. AR3112 (N22E10, beta-gamma-delta) is the most magnetically
complex region and has shown decay in its trailer spots. AR3116
(N31E14, beta) has shown growth in its trailer spots. AR3118
(N09E57, beta) recently appeared in the northeast quadrant and
has exhibited spot development. A new unnumbered region has appeared
near N28E48 and appears stable. All other sunspot regions are
either stable or in decay. Solar activity is expected to be at
R0-R1 levels over 07-09 Oct. No Earth-directed CMEs have been
observed. The solar wind speed on UT day 06-Oct was elevated,
ranging from 450 to 540 km/s, and is currently near 500 km/s.
The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 7
nT, and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was +6 to -7.
Two sustained periods of southward IMF conditions were observed
from 06/0648UT to 06/0841UT and 06/1109UT to 06/1151UT. The solar
wind speed is expected to remain elevated over 07-09 Oct due
to possible CME impacts on 07-Oct and 09-Oct.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Oct: G0
Estimated Indices 06 Oct : A K
Australian Region 10 22223323
Cocos Island 9 22213332
Darwin 10 22223323
Townsville 10 22223323
Learmonth 11 31223333
Alice Springs 10 22223323
Gingin 13 32223433
Canberra 10 22223323
Hobart 11 22323323
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 06 Oct :
Macquarie Island 22 22454442
Casey 18 45322333
Mawson 47 33333477
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 18 (Quiet)
Canberra 24 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 23 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 13
Planetary 17
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 13 2332 2343
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
07 Oct 30 G1
08 Oct 12 G0
09 Oct 20 G0, chance of G1
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 47 was issued on 5 October
and is current for 6-7 Oct. G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed
in the Australian region on UT day 06-Oct. Mostly G0 geomagnetic
conditions were observed in the Antarctic region, with isolated
periods of G1 at Macquarie Island and Casey, and a period of
G3 observed at Mawson. G1 geomagnetic conditions are expected
on 07-Oct due to a possible CME impact. G0 geomagnetic conditions
are expected on 08-Oct. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected
on 09-Oct, with a chance of G1 due to a possible CME impact from
a CME first observed on 05-Oct.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Oct Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Oct Fair Fair Fair-poor
08 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
09 Oct Normal Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: Degraded HF conditions are possible on 07-Oct and 09-Oct
in response to anticipated geomagnetic activity from recent coronal
mass ejection activity associated with solar filament eruptions.
Mostly normal HF conditions are expected on 08-Oct.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
06 Oct 106
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
No data available over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 74
Oct 69
Nov 69
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
07 Oct 90 Near predicted monthly values
08 Oct 100 10 to 15% above predicted monthly values
09 Oct 90 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 78 was issued on
5 October and is current for 5-7 Oct. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) on UT day 06-Oct were near predicted monthly values to
15-20% enhanced. Spread F was observed in Hobart. Degraded HF
conditions are possible on 07 and 09 Oct due to anticipated geomagnetic
activity from recent solar filament eruptions. MUFs are expected
to be 10-15% above predicted monthly values on 08-Oct. Shortwave
fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 05 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 3.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.00E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 7%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Oct
Speed: 522 km/sec Density: 9.8 p/cc Temp: 320000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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