[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 05 October 22 issued 2330 UT on 05 Oct 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Oct 6 10:30:58 EST 2022
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/05 OCTOBER 2022
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 06 OCTOBER - 08 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Oct: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Oct: 161/115
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
06 Oct 07 Oct 08 Oct
Activity R1, chance R2 R1, chance R2 R1, chance R2
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 158/112 156/110 154/109
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 05-Oct was at the R0 level,
with several C-class flares. There are currently seven numbered
sunspot regions visible on the solar disk. AR3112 (N22E22, beta)
is the largest sunspot group and has shown minor decay in its
trailer spots. AR3115 (S18W22, beta), AR3116 (N31E26, beta) and
AR3117 (S12W07, beta) have all exhibited spot development over
the 24-hour period. AR3110 (N19W90, alpha) and AR3113 (N16W81,
beta) will soon rotate over the western limb. AR3111 (N28W26,
alpha) is stable. Solar activity is expected to be at R1 levels
over 06-08 Oct, with a slight chance of R2. An erupting solar
filament was observed, visible in H-alpha imagery from ~S28W31
at 05/0128UT. A subsequent southwest-directed CME was observed,
visible in LASCO C2 and STEREO-A imagery from 05/0236UT. Model
runs indicate this CME contains an Earth-directed component,
with a glancing blow possible on 09-Oct. No other Earth-directed
CMEs were observed. The solar wind speed on UT day 05-Oct was
elevated, ranging from 460 to 555 km/s, and is currently near
465 km/s. The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF,
Bt) was 9 nT, and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was
+7 to -7. A sustained period of southward IMF conditions was
observed from 05/1838UT to 05/2055UT. The solar wind speed is
expected to remain elevated over 06-08 Oct, due to waning coronal
hole effects and a possible CME impact on 07-Oct.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Oct: G0
Estimated Indices 05 Oct : A K
Australian Region 7 22222222
Cocos Island 5 22111212
Darwin 8 23222222
Townsville 7 22223221
Learmonth 7 22222222
Alice Springs 7 22222222
Gingin 11 22223333
Canberra 7 12213222
Hobart 7 12213222
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 05 Oct :
Macquarie Island 13 23324323
Casey 18 44432333
Mawson 32 44423465
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 2 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Hobart 5 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 13
Planetary 12 2342 1143
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
06 Oct 30 G1
07 Oct 30 G1
08 Oct 12 G0
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 47 was issued on 5 October
and is current for 6-7 Oct. G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed
in the Australian region on UT day 05-Oct. Mostly G0 geomagnetic
conditions were observed in the Antarctic region, with isolated
periods of G1 and G2 observed at Mawson. G1 geomagnetic conditions
are expected over 06-07 Oct due to CME impacts associated with filament
eruptions. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected on 08-Oct.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Oct Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Oct Fair Fair Fair-poor
07 Oct Fair Fair Fair-poor
08 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Degraded HF conditions are possible over 06-07 Oct in
response to anticipated geomagnetic activity from recent coronal
mass ejection activity associated with solar filament eruptions.
Mostly normal HF conditions are expected on 08-Oct.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
05 Oct 105
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day.
Enhanced by 50% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 50% during local night.
Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
No data available over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 74
Oct 69
Nov 69
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
06 Oct 85 Near predicted monthly values
07 Oct 85 Near predicted monthly values
08 Oct 95 10 to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 78 was issued on
5 October and is current for 5-7 Oct. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) on UT day 05-Oct were generally near predicted monthly
values to 15-20% enhanced. Degraded HF conditions are possible
over 06-07 Oct due to anticipated geomagnetic activity from recent
solar filament eruptions. MUFs are expected to be 10-15% above
predicted monthly values on 08-Oct. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 04 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 3.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.90E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.1
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Oct
Speed: 549 km/sec Density: 11.1 p/cc Temp: 522000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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