[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 04 October 22 issued 2333 UT on 04 Oct 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Oct 5 10:33:01 EST 2022
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/04 OCTOBER 2022
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 05 OCTOBER - 07 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Oct: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.6 1315UT possible lower European
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Oct: 152/107
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
05 Oct 06 Oct 07 Oct
Activity R1, chance R2 R1, chance R2 R1, chance R2
Fadeouts Probable Probable Probable
10.7cm/SSN 152/107 150/105 148/102
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 04-Oct reached the R1 level
due to a single M1 flare from AR3110(N16W77, beta). There are
currently two main solar regions of interest on the visible solar
disk, AR3110 and AR3112 (N23E33, beta). AR3112 was reported to
have briefly returned to the more complex beta-gamma magnetic
configuration during the day. The M1 flare from AR3110, which
is now located well westward on the solar disk, was associated
with a northwest directed CME, which subsequent modelling shows
will miss the Earth. The US GONG Halpha imagery showed that a
section (S31E10 to S24W08) of solar filament erupted at 04/1330UT
and was associated with a predominately southward directed CME.
Event modelling shows that a component of this mostly southward
associated CME is expected to reach the Earth's magnetosphere
at 07/0300UT. Solar region AR3112 remains the largest and most
complex region on the disk, with a magnetic gradient evident
at N23E23 within this region, though the region has not yet produced
any major flare activity. There is a slight chance for an ASWAS
S1 proton flare over the next few days. There are currently seven
sunspot regions on the solar disk. Solar activity is expected
to be predominantly at R1 level, with a chance of an isolated
R2 event. The solar wind speed on UT day 04-Oct was and variable,
and ranged between 519 to 605 km/s due the prolonged influence
of a coronal hole high speed wind stream, and is currently at
513km/sec. The anticipated arrival of glancing blow CMEs has
failed to eventuate with no CME signatures evident in the solar
wind in the past 24 hours. The peak total interplanetary field
strength (IMF, Bt) was 9 nT and the north-south IMF component
(Bz) range was 7 to -7 nT. Periodic fluctuations of mildly southward
IMF conditions observed 0030-0700UT.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Oct: G0
Estimated Indices 04 Oct : A K
Australian Region 9 23320232
Cocos Island 6 22310131
Darwin - --------
Townsville 10 33331222
Learmonth 10 33321232
Alice Springs 8 22320232
Gingin 10 32320242
Canberra 9 23330231
Hobart 10 23331231
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 04 Oct :
Macquarie Island 11 24431121
Casey 16 44431232
Mawson 29 34642254
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 Oct :
Darwin NA
Townsville 3 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 29 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 17 (Quiet)
Hobart 26 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 17
Planetary 21
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 16
Planetary 26 3321 5553
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
05 Oct 20 G0-G1
06 Oct 30 G1
07 Oct 30 G1
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 46 was issued on 3 October
and is current for 3-5 Oct. G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed
in the Australian region on UT day 04-Oct. Mostly G0 geomagnetic
conditions were observed in the Antarctic region, with a period
of G1 at Mawson. The forecast increase in geomagnetic activity
for 04-Oct has failed to eventuate. G0-G1 conditions are expected
today, with G1 conditions expected 06-07 Oct due to CMEs associated
with filament eruptions.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Oct Normal Normal-fair Fair
06 Oct Fair Fair Fair-poor
07 Oct Fair Fair Fair-poor
COMMENT: HF conditions at middle to high latitudes are now expected
to mostly normal for 05-Oct, as the anticipated increase in geomagnetic
activity for 04-Oct has failed to eventuate. Generally degraded
HF conditions possible 06-07 Oct in response to anticipated geomagnetic
activity from recent coronal mass ejection activity associated
with solar filament eruptions.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
04 Oct 92
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15-20%.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15-20%.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 74
Oct 69
Nov 69
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
05 Oct 80 10 to 15% above predicted monthly values
06 Oct 80 10 to 15% above predicted monthly values
07 Oct 60 Depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 04-Oct were
generally near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced. The
expected increase in geomagnetic activity for 04-Oct and subsequent
ionospheric response at middle latitudes for 05-Oct has failed
to eventuate. MUFs are now expected to be near predicted monthly
values to 15% enhanced on 05-Oct. Degraded HF conditions are
possible 06-07-Oct due to anticipated geomagnetic activity from
recent solar filament eruptions. Isolated fadeouts are likely
on daylight HF circuits.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 03 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.1E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.20E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.7
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Oct
Speed: 505 km/sec Density: 0.9 p/cc Temp: 278000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list