[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 03 October 22 issued 2330 UT on 03 Oct 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Oct 4 10:30:51 EST 2022
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/03 OCTOBER 2022
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 04 OCTOBER - 06 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:** RED ** ION: ** YELLOW **
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Oct: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M2.6 0233UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
M4.2 1011UT possible lower European
M1.1 1053UT possible lower European
M1.5 1111UT possible lower European
M1.7 1530UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
M1.3 2029UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
M1.8 2122UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
M1.3 2202UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Oct: 155/109
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
04 Oct 05 Oct 06 Oct
Activity R1-R2 R1-R2 R1-R2
Fadeouts Probable Probable Probable
10.7cm/SSN 154/109 152/107 148/102
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 03-Oct reached the R1 level
due to multiple flare events. Two regions, AR3112 (N23E47, beta)
and AR3110 (N16W63, beta), produced the M class flare activity.
The largest flare for the day, an M4.2 event, was produced by
AR3110, and was accompanied by a weak narrow northwest directed
coronal mass ejection. Event modelling shows this minor CME will
miss the Earth. Both of these regions have shown some degree
of partial decline spot area, with perhaps a more open configuration
and reported magnetic complexity appears to have somewhat simplified,
though whole disk R1 class flare probability is currently at
70%. There is a slight chance for an ASWAS S1 proton flare over
the next few days. There are currently seven sunspot regions
on the solar disk. Solar region AR3115(S18E06, beta) has shown
growth but exhibited little activity. Solar activity is expected
to be at predominantly R1-R2 levels over 04-06 Oct. A solar filament
located at S30E30, erupted with an associated CME observed from
03/00-02UT. The solar wind speed on UT day 03-Oct was and variable,
and ranged between 480 to 570 km/s due to a coronal hole high
speed wind stream, and is currently at 492km/sec. The solar wind
is expected to remain elevated over 04-06 Oct due to the combined
effects of declining coronal hole high speed wind streams effects
and partial impacts of several recent CMEs. The peak total interplanetary
field strength (IMF, Bt) was 15 nT and the north-south IMF component
(Bz) range was +12to -13 nT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Oct: G0
Estimated Indices 03 Oct : A K
Australian Region 13 22214343
Cocos Island 11 22223341
Darwin - --------
Townsville 14 32214343
Learmonth 15 32314343
Alice Springs 13 22214343
Gingin 15 32304343
Canberra 13 22204343
Hobart 14 22304343
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 03 Oct :
Macquarie Island 24 33405453
Casey 16 33323244
Mawson 58 64424385
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 Oct :
Darwin NA
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 13 (Quiet)
Canberra 11 (Quiet)
Hobart 31 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 23
Planetary 32
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 10 2103 2324
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
04 Oct 35 G1-G2
05 Oct 20 G0-G1
06 Oct 30 G1, chance G2
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 46 was issued on 3 October
and is current for 3-5 Oct. G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed
in the Australian region on UT day 03-Oct. Mostly G0 geomagnetic
conditions were observed in the Antarctic region, with isolated
periods of G1 and G2 at Mawson, and a period of G1 at Macquarie
Island. Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be initially at
the G0 level on 04-Oct, then increasing to G1-G2 geomagnetic
conditions from mid to late in the UT day on 04-Oct, in association
with CME events observed over 01-02-Oct. Further activity, isolated
G1 periods, is expected on 05-Oct due to possible glancing blows
from multiple recent flare associated CMEs. G1 conditions are
then expected from the middle of the UT day on 06-Oct due to
the expected arrival of a component of a CME associated with
an erupting solar filament observed on 03 Oct.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Oct Normal Normal Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Oct Normal Normal-fair Fair-poor
05 Oct Normal Fair Fair-poor
06 Oct Normal Fair Poor
COMMENT: HF conditions at middle to high latitudes are initially
expected to be normal on 04 Oct, then becoming degraded late
in the UT day, with generally degraded HF conditions possible
05-06 Oct in response to anticipated geomagnetic activity from
recent coronal mass ejection activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
03 Oct 94
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 25-45%.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15-20%.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15-25%.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 74
Oct 69
Nov 69
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
04 Oct 80 About 15% above predicted monthly values
05 Oct 70 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
15%
06 Oct 40 Depressed 15 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 77 was issued on
3 October and is current for 3-4 Oct. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) on UT day 03-Oct were generally near predicted monthly
values to 25% enhanced, with very strong enhancements observed
at Cocos Island. Spread F was observed during local night hours
at Perth. A shortwave fadeout impacting lower HF frequencies
was observed 03/0227-0310UT. Equatorial ionospheric scintillation
was briefly observed at Darwin 03/1700-1715UT. MUFs are expected
to be near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced on 04-Oct,
then becoming degraded during 05-06 Oct, in association with
an anticipated increase in geomagnetic activity during this interval.
The degree of middle latitude ionospheric depression response
to any expected increase in geomagnetic activity is difficult
to estimate due to the current enhanced ionospheric conditions.
Further fadeouts are likely on daylight HF circuits.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 02 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.4E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 3.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.4
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Oct
Speed: 451 km/sec Density: 0.9 p/cc Temp: 176000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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