[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 02 October 22 issued 2331 UT on 02 Oct 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Oct 3 10:31:14 EST 2022
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/02 OCTOBER 2022
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 03 OCTOBER - 05 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Oct: R3
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M8.8 0221UT probable lower E. Asia/Aust.
M1.3 1405UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
M1.1 1545UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
X1.1 2025UT probable all East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Oct: 154/109
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
03 Oct 04 Oct 05 Oct
Activity R1-R2, chance R3 R1-R2, chance R3 R1-R2, chance R3
Fadeouts Probable Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 155/109 155/109 145/99
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 02-Sep reached R3 levels, with
X-ray flux levels reaching X1.0. Two regions, AR3112 (N23E60,
beta-gamma-delta) and AR3110 (N16W50, beta), produced flares
at 02/2026UT contributing to the X1.0 flux. Both of these regions
have grown in size and complexity over 02-Oct. There are currently
five sunspot regions on the solar disk. In addition to the R3
event, AR3110 (N16W50, beta) produced an M8.8 flare at 02/0220UT.
AR3107 (S25W75, beta) appears to have decayed as it rotates over
the western limb, however it produced an M1.0 flare at 02/1544UT.
Region AR3113 (N16W40, beta) has been unstable, and all other
regions are either stable or in decay. Solar activity is expected
to be at predominantly R0-R1 levels over 03-05 Oct, with isolated
R2 and R3 flares possible. Several filament eruptions were associated
with the flaring activity from AR3110 on UT day 02-Oct and can
be observed in GOES SUVI imagery. Several CMEs were observed
in LASCO and STEREO-A imagery from 02/0236UT, 02/0548UT and 02/1514UT
from the northwest quadrant of the solar disk. Analysis suggests
these CMEs may interact, causing a glancing blow to Earth on
04-Oct, however confidence in low. The solar wind speed on UT
day 02-Oct steadily increased, and ranged from 387 to 588 km/s
and is currently near 545 km/s, suggesting the late arrival of
a coronal hole high speed wind stream. The solar wind is expected
to remain elevated over 03-05 Oct due to the combined effects
of coronal hole high speed wind streams and impacts of several
recent CMEs. The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF,
Bt) was 9 nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was
+8 to -9 nT. Bz has been southward since 02/1950UT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Oct: G0
Estimated Indices 02 Oct : A K
Australian Region 7 22122223
Cocos Island 6 22122212
Darwin 6 2212----
Townsville 10 32132233
Learmonth 9 22123323
Alice Springs 9 22232223
Gingin 8 31222223
Canberra 7 22122223
Hobart 9 22232223
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 02 Oct :
Macquarie Island 15 21143325
Casey 18 44432333
Mawson 26 43223635
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 13
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 3 0000 1112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
03 Oct 20 G0-G1, chance G2
04 Oct 36 G1-G2, chance G3
05 Oct 26 G0-G1
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 02-Oct. Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions were
observed in the Antarctica region, with an isolated period of
G2 at Mawson. G0-G1 conditions are generally expected on 03-Oct
as the late arrival of a coronal hole high speed wind stream
is expected to increase geomagnetic activity. G1-G2 geomagnetic
conditions are expected on 04-Oct, as coronal hole effects continue
and are combined with possible impacts from several recent CMEs.
G0-G1 conditions are expected on 05-Oct as these effects ease.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Oct Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Oct Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
04 Oct Fair Fair Fair-poor
05 Oct Fair Fair Fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are initially
expected for 03-Oct, with degraded HF conditions possible over
late 03-Oct to 05-Oct in response to anticipated geomagnetic
activity, particularly in middle to high latitude regions during
local night hours.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
02 Oct 93
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 74
Oct 69
Nov 69
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
03 Oct 80 Near predicted monthly values
04 Oct 75 Near predicted monthly values to
05 Oct 75 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 02-Oct were
mostly near predicted monthly values to 25% enhanced during local
night hours. Sporadic-E was observed briefly at northern sites
during local night hours. MUFs are expected to be near 15% enhanced
on 03-Oct, becoming near predicted monthly values by local night.
Degraded local night conditions with possible mild depressions
after local dawn may be experienced for southern Australian regions
over 03-05 Oct, in association with an anticipated increase in
geomagnetic activity. The degree of ionospheric depression is
difficult to estimate due to the current enhanced ionospheric
conditions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 01 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 3.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.5
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Oct
Speed: 429 km/sec Density: 0.6 p/cc Temp: 144000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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