[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 01 October 22 issued 2330 UT on 01 Oct 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Oct 2 10:30:57 EST 2022
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/01 OCTOBER 2022
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 02 OCTOBER - 04 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Oct: R2
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M5.9 2010UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Oct: 148/102
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
02 Oct 03 Oct 04 Oct
Activity R0-R1, chance R2 R0-R1, chance R2 R0-R1, chance R2
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 145/99 150/105 150/105
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 01-Oct was at the R2 level,
with a M5.9 flare at 01/2010UT from AR3110 (N16W36, alpha). All
other flares over the 24 hour period were C-class. There are
currently six numbered sunspot regions on the solar disk. AR3110,
AR3112 (N20E70, beta), AR3113 (N16W26, beta-gamma) and AR3114
(S34E29, beta) have grown. All other sunspot regions are either
stable or in decay. Solar activity is expected to be at R0-R1
levels over 02-04 Oct, with a chance of R2. A filament eruption
was observed in GOES SUVI imagery from 10/1228UT near AR3113,
and a CME was observed in STEREO-A imagery from 10/1309. Analysis
indicates this may weakly impact Earth on 04-Oct, however confidence
is low as there is limited imagery available. A filament eruption
can be seen in H-alpha imagery at 01/2015UT, in association with
the M5.9 flare from AR3110 and at 01/2024UT a CME can be observed
in LASCO imagery in the west. Preliminary analysis suggests it
does not have an Earth directed component. No other CMEs were
observed. The solar wind speed on UT day 01-Oct remained elevated
and ranged from 386 to 504 km/s, and is currently near 450 km/s
on a steady trend. The solar wind speed is expected to increase
over 02-04 Oct, as the second of a pair of coronal holes rotate
in to a geoeffective position. The peak total interplanetary
field strength (IMF, Bt) was 10 nT and the north-south IMF component
(Bz) range was +5 to -3 nT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Oct: G0
Estimated Indices 01 Oct : A K
Australian Region 4 33000101
Cocos Island 4 33010100
Darwin 4 33100101
Townsville 2 12100111
Learmonth 4 33000101
Alice Springs 1 -2000101
Gingin 4 33000101
Canberra 4 33000001
Hobart 0 -1000001
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 01 Oct :
Macquarie Island 1 -2000000
Casey 4 -2210122
Mawson 8 21011243
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 17
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 10 2332 3211
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
02 Oct 36 G0-G1, chance of G2
03 Oct 20 G0, chance of G1
04 Oct 16 G0, chance of G1
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 45 was issued on 28 September
and is current for 30 Sep to 2 Oct. G0 geomagnetic conditions
were observed in the Australian and Antarctic region on UT day
01-Oct. G0-G1 geomagnetic conditions are expected on 02-Oct,
with a chance of G2, as the second of a pair of coronal holes
rotate into a geoeffective position to produce high speed solar
wind streams. G0-G1 geomagnetic conditions are expected on 03-04
Oct as coronal hole high speed wind stream effects continue,
and from a potential weak CME impact 04-Oct.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Oct Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Oct Fair Fair Fair
03 Oct Normal Normal-fair Fair
04 Oct Normal Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are initially
expected for 02-Oct, with degraded HF conditions possible over
late 02-Oct to 04-Oct in response to anticipated geomagnetic
activity, particularly in middle to high latitude regions during
local night hours.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
01 Oct 89
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 50% during local night.
Enhanced by 35% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 74
Oct 69
Nov 69
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
02 Oct 80 Enhanced by 15-20% to near predicted monthly
values
03 Oct 75 Near predicted monthly values
04 Oct 75 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC Preliminary HF Communications Warning 75 was issued
on 30 September and is current for 1-2 Oct. ASWFC SWF HF Communications
Warning 76 was issued on 30 September and is current for 30 Sep
to 2 Oct. Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 01-Oct
were mostly enhanced by 15-35%, with enhancements up to 95% observed
at Darwin. Sporadic-E was observed at northern sites during local
night hours. MUFs are expected to be near 15% enhanced on 02-Oct,
becoming near predicted monthly values by local night. Degraded
local night conditions with possible mild depressions after local
dawn may be experienced for southern Australian regions over
03-04 Oct, in association with an anticipated increase in geomagnetic
activity. The degree of ionospheric depression is difficult to
estimate due to the current enhanced ionospheric conditions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 30 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.4E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 3.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.6
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 Sep
Speed: 538 km/sec Density: 10.3 p/cc Temp: 542000 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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