[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 30 September 22 issued 2330 UT on 30 Sep 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Oct 1 09:30:57 EST 2022
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/30 SEPTEMBER 2022
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 01 OCTOBER - 03 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 Sep: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.0 0402UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
M3.0 1622UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
M1.4 1734UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 Sep: 137/91
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
01 Oct 02 Oct 03 Oct
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 140/94 140/94 135/89
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 30-Sep was at R1 levels, with
three M-class flares. An M1.0 flare occurred at 30/0402UT, an
M2.9 flare occurred at 30/1622UT and an M1.4 flare occurred at
30/1735UT. All M-class flares were produced by returning region
AR3098, which is currently on the eastern limb at N25. There
are currently five numbered sunspots on the solar disk. Significant
growth was observed in the trailer spots of AR31110 (N16W18,
beta-gamma). All other sunspot regions are either stable or in
decay. Solar activity is expected to be at R0-R1 levels over
01-03 Oct, due to the returning region AR3089 which previously
produced M-class flares. No Earth directed CMEs have been observed.
Two equatorial coronal holes are currently near geoeffective
locations. The solar wind speed on UT day 30-Sep was moderate
and ranged from 460 to 591 km/s and is currently near 550 km/s.
The peak interplanetary field strength was 15 nT and the north-south
IMF component (Bz) range was +6 to -7 nT. Bz was southward intermittently
between 30/0619 and 30/1135UT. The solar wind is expected to
remain elevated over 01-03 Sep.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 Sep: G0
Estimated Indices 30 Sep : A K
Australian Region 11 23433201
Cocos Island 9 23333101
Darwin 10 23333211
Townsville 13 24433211
Learmonth 8 23333100
Alice Springs 12 24433200
Gingin 9 23333201
Canberra 10 23433200
Hobart 11 14433101
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 30 Sep :
Macquarie Island 14 13345200
Casey 21 25632212
Mawson 34 45555144
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 Sep :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 9 (Quiet)
Canberra 5 (Quiet)
Hobart 5 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 20
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 6 1022 2222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
01 Oct 30 G0-G1, chance of G2
02 Oct 36 G0-G1, chance of G2
03 Oct 20 G0-G1
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 45 was issued on 28 September
and is current for 30 Sep to 2 Oct. G0 geomagnetic conditions
were observed in the Australian region on UT day 30-Sep. Mostly
G0-G1 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Antarctic region,
with an isolated period of G2 at Casey. Mostly G1 geomagnetic
conditions are expected over 01-Oct, with a chance of G2, due
to the combination of a coronal hole high speed wind stream and
impact from a CME first observed 28-Sep. A second coronal hole
high speed wind stream is expected to become geoeffective over
02-03 Oct, likely producing further G1, possibly G2, geomagnetic
conditions.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Sep Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Oct Fair Fair Fair-poor
02 Oct Fair Fair-poor Poor
03 Oct Normal Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are initially
expected for 01-Oct, with degraded HF conditions possible over
late 01-Oct to 03-Oct in response to anticipated geomagnetic
activity, particularly in middle to high latitude regions during
local night hours.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
30 Sep 97
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 35% during local day.
Enhanced by 45% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Aug 53
Sep 68
Oct 69
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
01 Oct 85 Enhanced 10 to 15%/ near predicted monthly values
02 Oct 70 Near predicted monthly values
03 Oct 70 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC Preliminary HF Communications Warning 75 was issued
on 30 September and is current for 1-2 Oct. ASWFC SWF HF Communications
Warning 76 was issued on 30 September and is current for 30 Sep
to 2 Oct. Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 30-Sep
were mostly enhanced by 15-25% during local day and night hours
in the Australian region. Regional MUFs are expected to be near
15% enhanced on 01-Oct, becoming near predicted monthly values
by local night. Degraded local night conditions with possible
mild depressions after local dawn may be experienced for southern
Australian regions over 02-03 Oct in association with an anticipated
increase in geomagnetic activity. The degree of ionospheric depression
is difficult to estimate due to the current enhanced ionospheric
conditions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 29 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.4E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 3.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.6
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 Sep
Speed: 499 km/sec Density: 9.5 p/cc Temp: 239000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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