[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 30 October 22 issued 2331 UT on 30 Oct 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Oct 31 10:31:03 EST 2022
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/30 OCTOBER 2022
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 31 OCTOBER - 02 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 Oct: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 Oct: 131/85
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
31 Oct 01 Nov 02 Nov
Activity R0 R0 R0
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 130/84 130/84 130/84
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 30-Oct was at the R0 level,
with low-level C-class flaring only. There are currently three
numbered sunspot regions visible on the solar disk and one unnumbered
region. AR3131 (N25W09, beta) is the largest sunspot region and
is stable. AR3135 (N28E43, beta) has shown growth in its trailer
spots over the 24-hour period. AR3133 (N28E08, beta) has decayed.
A new unnumbered region has appeared at N22W67 (beta) and appears
stable. Solar activity is expected to be at the R0 level over
31-Oct to 02-Nov. No Earth-directed CMEs have been observed.
The solar wind speed on UT day 30-Oct was elevated, ranging from
500 to 585 km/s, and is currently near 510 km/s. The peak total
interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 6 nT, and the north-south
IMF component (Bz) range was +6 to -5. The solar wind speed is
expected to remain elevated over 31-Oct to 02-Nov due to ongoing
coronal hole high speed wind stream effects.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 Oct: G0
Estimated Indices 30 Oct : A K
Australian Region 7 22132222
Cocos Island 6 22122221
Darwin 6 22132112
Townsville 8 22133222
Learmonth 9 32133222
Alice Springs 7 22132222
Gingin 10 32133321
Canberra 8 23232221
Hobart - --------
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 30 Oct :
Macquarie Island 22 23365310
Casey 23 55443222
Mawson 18 34343333
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 22 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 7 (Quiet)
Hobart NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 94
Planetary 24 4354 4323
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
31 Oct 16 G0, chance G1
01 Nov 12 G0
02 Nov 16 G0, chance G1
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on 30-Oct. Mostly G0-G1 geomagnetic conditions were observed
in the Antarctic region, with an isolated period of G2 observed
at Macquarie Island. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected over
31-Oct to 02-Nov, with a chance of G1 on 31-Oct and 02-Nov due
to coronal hole high speed wind stream effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Oct Fair Fair Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
31 Oct Normal Normal-fair Fair
01 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
02 Nov Normal Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
over 31-Oct to 02-Nov, with mildly degraded conditions possible
due to coronal hole high speed wind stream effects, particularly
at high latitudes.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
30 Oct 60
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 74
Oct 69
Nov 69
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
31 Oct 65 Near predicted monthly values
01 Nov 70 Near predicted monthly values
02 Nov 65 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC HF Communications Warning 83 was issued on 30
October and is current for 30-31 Oct. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) on UT day 30-Oct were 15-20% depressed. MUFs are expected
to be near predicted monthly values over 31-Oct to 02-Nov. Mild
degradations are possible due to coronal hole high speed wind
stream effects.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 29 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 3.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.50E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B5.8
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 Oct
Speed: 539 km/sec Density: 11.0 p/cc Temp: 395000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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