[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 28 November 22 issued 2330 UT on 28 Nov 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Nov 29 10:30:57 EST 2022
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/28 NOVEMBER 2022
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 29 NOVEMBER - 01 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: ** YELLOW **
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Nov: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Nov: 107/57
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
29 Nov 30 Nov 01 Dec
Activity R0 R0 R0
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 110/60 115/66 115/66
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 28-Nov was at the R0 level.
There are currently four numbered sunspot regions visible on
the solar disk. Three of these regions will soon rotate over
the solar western limb. There is no solar region of significance
currently on the solar disk. Solar activity is generally expected
to be at the R0 level over 29-Nov to 01-Dec. A previously flaring
region AR3141 is due back to the northeast limb on 30-Nov to
01-Dec at around north 15 degrees. No Earth directed CMEs have
been observed. A southeast CME was observed from 28/0636UT in
LASCO C2 and could not be correlated to any on disk activity,
possibly related to prominence activity on the southeast solar
limb. A small 5 degree long solar filament located at N37E25,
lifted off the solar disk at 28/1252UT (observed in GONG H-alpha).
No CME appeared associated with this minor filament eruption.
The solar wind speed on UT day 28-Nov unexpectedly increased,
ranging from 479 to 684 km/s, and is currently near 570 km/s,
with yesterdays slight jump in solar wind speed at 27/1316UT
probably indicating the Earth's entry into another coronal hole
wind stream. This increase in wind speed is not evident in previous
solar rotations. The peak total interplanetary field strength
(IMF, Bt) was 12 nT, and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range
was +8 to -10, with a period of southward fluctuating IMF conditions
28/00-04UT. A period of elevated solar wind conditions is generally
expected, with speeds initially elevated on 29-Nov with a declining
trend, before increasing again from mid to late 29-Nov to 02-Dec.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Nov: G0
Estimated Indices 28 Nov : A K
Australian Region 12 34221233
Cocos Island 8 33121132
Darwin 12 34221233
Townsville 14 34222243
Learmonth 12 34222233
Alice Springs 12 34222233
Gingin 12 442211--
Canberra 14 34221144
Hobart 11 34221133
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 28 Nov :
Macquarie Island 18 45241233
Casey 33 56543243
Mawson 51 67423365
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 6 (Quiet)
Canberra 24 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 45 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 16
Planetary 19
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 14 3312 3343
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
29 Nov 16 G0, chance of G1
30 Nov 16 G0, chance of G1
01 Dec 16 G0, chance of G1
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 56 was issued on 27 November
and is current for 30 Nov to 1 Dec. G0 geomagnetic conditions
were observed in the Australian region on UT day 28-Nov. G1-G3
geomagnetic periods were observed in the Antarctic region. Isolated
G1 geomagnetic periods are expected over 29-Nov to 01-Dec. The
US planetary Kp index reached G1 for one K index period early
in the UT day on 28-Nov.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Nov Normal Fair-normal Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Nov Normal Normal-fair Fair
30 Nov Normal Normal-fair Fair
01 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Generally mildly degraded HF conditions expected for
middle to high latitudes during 29-Nov to 01-Dec.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
28 Nov 57
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Brief 50% enhancement during 04-05UT.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15-20% during 00-06UT.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
West coast depressed 15-30% during 00-04UT.
Depressed 15-20% after 20UT.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct 83
Nov 70
Dec 70
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
29 Nov 45 Depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
30 Nov 50 Depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
01 Dec 50 Depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC HF Communications Warning 91 was issued on 28
November and is current for 29-Nov only. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) on UT day 28-Nov were variable with western Australian
region MUFs initially depressed 20-30% and northern Australian
region MUFs enhanced by 20% early in the UT day, then MUFs returned
to near normal levels. MUFs are generally expected to be 15%
depressed to near predicted monthly values. Degraded HF conditions
may be experienced during local night hours 29-Nov to 01-Dec
for the southern Australian region due to mildly enhanced geomagnetic
conditions induced by coronal hole wind streams.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 27 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 3.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.30E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.3
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 Nov
Speed: 471 km/sec Density: 9.1 p/cc Temp: 173000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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