[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 29 November 22 issued 2331 UT on 29 Nov 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Nov 30 10:31:10 EST 2022


SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/29 NOVEMBER 2022
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 30 NOVEMBER - 02 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: ** YELLOW **
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 Nov:  R0

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 Nov: 108/58


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             30 Nov             01 Dec             02 Dec
Activity     R0                 R0                 R0
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   110/60             110/60             105/54

COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 29-Nov was at the R0 level 
with multiple C-class flares, including a long duration C4.2 
flare originating from AR151 (S14W84, alpha) at 29/1358UT. There 
are currently two numbered sunspot regions visible on the solar 
disk. AR3152 (N28W13, beta) showed spot development over the 
UT day. AR3151 will rotate off the solar disk on 30-Nov. Solar 
activity is expected to be at the R0 level over 30-Nov to 2-Dec. 
Several CMEs were observed but none are considered to be geoeffective. 
A filament eruption visible from 28/2119UT in SDO imagery at 
around S40E80 produced a CME visible from 28/2200UT in SOHO imagery. 
Modelling indicates this CME is not geoeffective. A filament 
lift-off is visible in SDO and H-alpha imagery from 29/1238UT 
at around S05E10. No associated CME is observable in available 
coronagraph imagery. The solar wind speed on UT day 29-Nov increased, 
ranging from 513 to 708 km/s, and is currently near 650 km/s. 
The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 7 
nT, and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was +5 to -6, 
with a period of sustained negative Bz from 29/0530UT to 29/0825UT. 
The solar wind speed is expected to remain elevated over 30-Nov 
to 2-Dec due to high speed wind stream effects from a group of 
small coronal holes in the northern hemisphere, which have since 
dissipated, and a large equatorial coronal hole which is expected 
to rotate into a geoeffective position on 30-Nov.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 Nov: G0

Estimated Indices 29 Nov : A   K           
   Australian Region      13   32333332
      Cocos Island         8   22223231
      Darwin              11   32233322
      Townsville          13   32233432
      Learmonth           14   32333432
      Alice Springs       10   22233322
      Gingin              18   33334343
      Canberra            14   32334332
      Hobart              15   33334332    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 29 Nov :
      Macquarie Island    27   32455533
      Casey               34   56544333
      Mawson              41   65545444

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 Nov : 
      Darwin               5   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin              33   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Canberra            27   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Hobart              35   (Quiet to unsettled)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg        18
           Planetary             26                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        18
           Planetary             23   4533 2154     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
30 Nov    20    G0, chance of G1
01 Dec    18    G0, chance of G1
02 Dec    18    G0, chance of G1

COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 56 was issued on 27 November 
and is current for 30 Nov to 1 Dec. G0 geomagnetic conditions 
were observed in the Australian region on UT day 29-Nov. G1 geomagnetic 
conditions were observed in the Antarctic region, with isolated 
periods of G2 at Casey and Mawson. G0 conditions are expected 
over 30-Nov to 2-Dec, with a chance of G1 due to ongoing coronal 
hole high speed wind stream effects.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
29 Nov      Fair           Fair           Poor           

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
30 Nov      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair
01 Dec      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair
02 Dec      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair

COMMENT: Mildly degraded HF conditions expected for middle to 
high latitudes from 30-Nov to 02-Dec due to ongoing coronal hole 
high speed wind stream effects.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
29 Nov    42

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Oct      83
Nov      70
Dec      70

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
30 Nov    45    Depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
01 Dec    45    Depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
02 Dec    50    Depressed 5 to 10%/near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: ASWFC Preliminary HF Communications Warning 90 was issued 
on 27 November and is current for 30 Nov to 1 Dec. Maximum usable 
frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 29-Nov varied from near predicted 
monthly values to 25% depressed due to geomagnetic activity caused 
by coronal hole high speed wind stream effects. Periods of sporadic 
E was observed across the Australian region during local evening 
and night. MUFs are generally expected to be near predicted monthly 
values to mildly depressed over 30-Nov to 2-Dec. Degraded HF 
conditions may be experienced during local night hours on 30-Nov 
to 02-Dec for the southern Australian region due to mildly enhanced 
geomagnetic conditions induced by coronal hole wind streams.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 28 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   7.7E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.9E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.90E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B3.8

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Nov
Speed: 594 km/sec  Density:   11.2 p/cc  Temp:   429000 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au



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