[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 29 November 22 issued 2331 UT on 29 Nov 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Nov 30 10:31:10 EST 2022
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/29 NOVEMBER 2022
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 30 NOVEMBER - 02 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: ** YELLOW **
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 Nov: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 Nov: 108/58
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
30 Nov 01 Dec 02 Dec
Activity R0 R0 R0
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 110/60 110/60 105/54
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 29-Nov was at the R0 level
with multiple C-class flares, including a long duration C4.2
flare originating from AR151 (S14W84, alpha) at 29/1358UT. There
are currently two numbered sunspot regions visible on the solar
disk. AR3152 (N28W13, beta) showed spot development over the
UT day. AR3151 will rotate off the solar disk on 30-Nov. Solar
activity is expected to be at the R0 level over 30-Nov to 2-Dec.
Several CMEs were observed but none are considered to be geoeffective.
A filament eruption visible from 28/2119UT in SDO imagery at
around S40E80 produced a CME visible from 28/2200UT in SOHO imagery.
Modelling indicates this CME is not geoeffective. A filament
lift-off is visible in SDO and H-alpha imagery from 29/1238UT
at around S05E10. No associated CME is observable in available
coronagraph imagery. The solar wind speed on UT day 29-Nov increased,
ranging from 513 to 708 km/s, and is currently near 650 km/s.
The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 7
nT, and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was +5 to -6,
with a period of sustained negative Bz from 29/0530UT to 29/0825UT.
The solar wind speed is expected to remain elevated over 30-Nov
to 2-Dec due to high speed wind stream effects from a group of
small coronal holes in the northern hemisphere, which have since
dissipated, and a large equatorial coronal hole which is expected
to rotate into a geoeffective position on 30-Nov.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 Nov: G0
Estimated Indices 29 Nov : A K
Australian Region 13 32333332
Cocos Island 8 22223231
Darwin 11 32233322
Townsville 13 32233432
Learmonth 14 32333432
Alice Springs 10 22233322
Gingin 18 33334343
Canberra 14 32334332
Hobart 15 33334332
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 29 Nov :
Macquarie Island 27 32455533
Casey 34 56544333
Mawson 41 65545444
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 Nov :
Darwin 5 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 33 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 27 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 35 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 18
Planetary 26
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 18
Planetary 23 4533 2154
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
30 Nov 20 G0, chance of G1
01 Dec 18 G0, chance of G1
02 Dec 18 G0, chance of G1
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 56 was issued on 27 November
and is current for 30 Nov to 1 Dec. G0 geomagnetic conditions
were observed in the Australian region on UT day 29-Nov. G1 geomagnetic
conditions were observed in the Antarctic region, with isolated
periods of G2 at Casey and Mawson. G0 conditions are expected
over 30-Nov to 2-Dec, with a chance of G1 due to ongoing coronal
hole high speed wind stream effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Nov Fair Fair Poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Nov Normal Normal-fair Fair
01 Dec Normal Normal-fair Fair
02 Dec Normal Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: Mildly degraded HF conditions expected for middle to
high latitudes from 30-Nov to 02-Dec due to ongoing coronal hole
high speed wind stream effects.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
29 Nov 42
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct 83
Nov 70
Dec 70
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
30 Nov 45 Depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
01 Dec 45 Depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
02 Dec 50 Depressed 5 to 10%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC Preliminary HF Communications Warning 90 was issued
on 27 November and is current for 30 Nov to 1 Dec. Maximum usable
frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 29-Nov varied from near predicted
monthly values to 25% depressed due to geomagnetic activity caused
by coronal hole high speed wind stream effects. Periods of sporadic
E was observed across the Australian region during local evening
and night. MUFs are generally expected to be near predicted monthly
values to mildly depressed over 30-Nov to 2-Dec. Degraded HF
conditions may be experienced during local night hours on 30-Nov
to 02-Dec for the southern Australian region due to mildly enhanced
geomagnetic conditions induced by coronal hole wind streams.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 28 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.7E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.90E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.8
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Nov
Speed: 594 km/sec Density: 11.2 p/cc Temp: 429000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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