[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 27 November 22 issued 2330 UT on 27 Nov 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Nov 28 10:30:57 EST 2022


SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/27 NOVEMBER 2022
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 28 NOVEMBER - 30 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Nov:  R0

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Nov: 107/57


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             28 Nov             29 Nov             30 Nov
Activity     R0                 R0                 R0
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   105/54             110/60             115/66

COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 27-Nov was at the R0 level. 
There are currently four numbered sunspot regions visible on 
the solar disk. Three of these minor solar regions are now located 
quite far west on the solar disk. There is no solar region of 
significance currently on the solar disk. Solar activity is expected 
to be at the R0 level over 28-30 Nov. No Earth directed CMEs 
have been observed. A southeast directed CME was observed from 
27/0712UT in LASCO C2 which could not be correlated to on disk 
activity, and a slower, narrower and more faint southwest CME 
was observed from 27/0936UT, this later CME was possibly related 
to a southwest limb prominence. Both these events are currently 
considered farside or limb activity. A previously flaring region 
AR3141 is due back to the northeast limb 30-Nov to 01-Dec. Solar 
activity may subsequently increase if this region returns. The 
solar wind speed on UT day 27-Nov decreased more quickly than 
expected, ranging from 547 to 412 km/s, and is currently near 
477 km/s, with a slight increase in wind speed observed after 
27/1316UT. The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF, 
Bt) was 10 nT, and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was 
+6 to -9. The solar wind speed is expected to be mildly elevated 
for 29-Nov. An isolated equatorial coronal hole is visible just 
to the east of the solar central meridian. Solar wind 27 day 
recurrence patterns suggest an increase in the solar wind speed 
during the interval 30-Nov to 01-Dec.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Nov: G0

Estimated Indices 27 Nov : A   K           
   Australian Region      10   22223332
      Cocos Island         6   21112231
      Darwin               8   21223322
      Townsville          11   22233332
      Learmonth            8   22123232
      Alice Springs        9   22223322
      Gingin               8   21223232
      Canberra             9   22223322
      Hobart               9   22223322    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 27 Nov :
      Macquarie Island    17   12235441
      Casey               21   45433233
      Mawson              27   43433463

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 Nov : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               2   (Quiet)
      Canberra            13   (Quiet)
      Hobart              35   (Quiet to unsettled)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg        11
           Planetary             15                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             13   3232 3323     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
28 Nov    13    G0
29 Nov     8    G0
30 Nov    20    G0, G1 periods second half of UT day.

COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 56 was issued on 27 November 
and is current for 30 Nov to 1 Dec. G0 geomagnetic conditions 
were observed in the Australian region on UT day 27-Nov. G1-G2 
geomagnetic periods were observed in the Antarctic region. Generally 
G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected over 28-29 Nov. Geomagnetic 
27 day recurrence patterns suggest that G0-G1 conditions are 
possible from mid 30-Nov to 01-Dec.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
27 Nov      Normal         Fair-normal    Fair-normal    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
28 Nov      Normal         Fair-normal    Fair-normal
29 Nov      Normal         Normal         Fair-normal
30 Nov      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair

COMMENT: Normal HF conditions are generally expected over 28-29 
Nov. Generally degraded HF conditions for middle to high latitudes 
are expected 30-Nov to 01-Dec.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
27 Nov    60

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Oct      83
Nov      70
Dec      70

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
28 Nov    55    Depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
29 Nov    70    Near predicted monthly values
30 Nov    70    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 27-Nov were 
generally near predicted monthly values. Spread F was observed 
at Hobart, and southern region MUFs are depressed about 15% after 
local dawn this morning. MUFs are expected to be mildly depressed 
to near predicted monthly values for 28-Nov, and near predicted 
monthly values for 29-30 Nov. Degraded HF conditions may be experienced 
during local night hours on 30-Nov and on 01-Dec for the southern 
Australian region in association with anticipated geomagnetic 
activity induced by a solar coronal hole wind stream.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 26 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   7.4E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.9E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.70E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B3.0

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 Nov
Speed: 507 km/sec  Density:   10.4 p/cc  Temp:   345000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au



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