[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 27 November 22 issued 2330 UT on 27 Nov 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Nov 28 10:30:57 EST 2022
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/27 NOVEMBER 2022
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 28 NOVEMBER - 30 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Nov: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Nov: 107/57
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
28 Nov 29 Nov 30 Nov
Activity R0 R0 R0
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 105/54 110/60 115/66
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 27-Nov was at the R0 level.
There are currently four numbered sunspot regions visible on
the solar disk. Three of these minor solar regions are now located
quite far west on the solar disk. There is no solar region of
significance currently on the solar disk. Solar activity is expected
to be at the R0 level over 28-30 Nov. No Earth directed CMEs
have been observed. A southeast directed CME was observed from
27/0712UT in LASCO C2 which could not be correlated to on disk
activity, and a slower, narrower and more faint southwest CME
was observed from 27/0936UT, this later CME was possibly related
to a southwest limb prominence. Both these events are currently
considered farside or limb activity. A previously flaring region
AR3141 is due back to the northeast limb 30-Nov to 01-Dec. Solar
activity may subsequently increase if this region returns. The
solar wind speed on UT day 27-Nov decreased more quickly than
expected, ranging from 547 to 412 km/s, and is currently near
477 km/s, with a slight increase in wind speed observed after
27/1316UT. The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF,
Bt) was 10 nT, and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was
+6 to -9. The solar wind speed is expected to be mildly elevated
for 29-Nov. An isolated equatorial coronal hole is visible just
to the east of the solar central meridian. Solar wind 27 day
recurrence patterns suggest an increase in the solar wind speed
during the interval 30-Nov to 01-Dec.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Nov: G0
Estimated Indices 27 Nov : A K
Australian Region 10 22223332
Cocos Island 6 21112231
Darwin 8 21223322
Townsville 11 22233332
Learmonth 8 22123232
Alice Springs 9 22223322
Gingin 8 21223232
Canberra 9 22223322
Hobart 9 22223322
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 27 Nov :
Macquarie Island 17 12235441
Casey 21 45433233
Mawson 27 43433463
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 13 (Quiet)
Hobart 35 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 13 3232 3323
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
28 Nov 13 G0
29 Nov 8 G0
30 Nov 20 G0, G1 periods second half of UT day.
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 56 was issued on 27 November
and is current for 30 Nov to 1 Dec. G0 geomagnetic conditions
were observed in the Australian region on UT day 27-Nov. G1-G2
geomagnetic periods were observed in the Antarctic region. Generally
G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected over 28-29 Nov. Geomagnetic
27 day recurrence patterns suggest that G0-G1 conditions are
possible from mid 30-Nov to 01-Dec.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Nov Normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Nov Normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
29 Nov Normal Normal Fair-normal
30 Nov Normal Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: Normal HF conditions are generally expected over 28-29
Nov. Generally degraded HF conditions for middle to high latitudes
are expected 30-Nov to 01-Dec.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
27 Nov 60
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct 83
Nov 70
Dec 70
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
28 Nov 55 Depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
29 Nov 70 Near predicted monthly values
30 Nov 70 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 27-Nov were
generally near predicted monthly values. Spread F was observed
at Hobart, and southern region MUFs are depressed about 15% after
local dawn this morning. MUFs are expected to be mildly depressed
to near predicted monthly values for 28-Nov, and near predicted
monthly values for 29-30 Nov. Degraded HF conditions may be experienced
during local night hours on 30-Nov and on 01-Dec for the southern
Australian region in association with anticipated geomagnetic
activity induced by a solar coronal hole wind stream.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 26 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.4E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.70E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 Nov
Speed: 507 km/sec Density: 10.4 p/cc Temp: 345000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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