[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 26 November 22 issued 2331 UT on 26 Nov 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Nov 27 10:31:06 EST 2022


SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/26 NOVEMBER 2022
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 27 NOVEMBER - 29 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Nov:  R0

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Nov: 107/57


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             27 Nov             28 Nov             29 Nov
Activity     R0                 R0                 R0
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   108/58             105/54             110/60

COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 26-Nov was at the R0 level. 
There are currently four numbered sunspot regions visible on 
the solar disk. There is no solar region of significance currently 
on the solar disk, with only B class flaring observed. Solar 
activity is expected to be at the R0 level over 27-29 Nov. No 
Earth directed CMEs have been observed. A small section of a 
solar filament located near N25-35W20 appears to have partially 
lifted off the solar disk during the interval 26/1500-2100UT 
(GONG H-alpha), though no plasma motion is visible in available 
GOES SUVI imagery, so this is not entirely certain. A northwest 
CME is visible in LASCO C2 from 26/1648UT. CME analysis tool 
fitting using both STEREO-A and LASCO coronagraph imagery shows 
that this CME is more likely to be a behind the limb event and 
not associated with the possible filament activity. The solar 
wind speed on UT day 26-Nov increased, ranging from 457 to 642 
km/s, and is currently near 557 km/s. The peak total interplanetary 
field strength (IMF, Bt) was 11 nT, and the north-south IMF component 
(Bz) range was +7 to -7, with Bz frequently fluctuating mildly 
southward. The solar wind speed is expected to remain elevated 
over 27-28 Nov due to a wind stream from a isolated coronal hole 
in the northern solar hemisphere which is now past the solar 
central meridian. Another isolated equatorial coronal hole is 
visible in the eastern solar hemisphere.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Nov: G0

Estimated Indices 26 Nov : A   K           
   Australian Region      11   23233322
      Cocos Island         7   22223221
      Darwin               9   22232322
      Townsville          12   23233332
      Learmonth           13   33233323
      Alice Springs       12   23233323
      Gingin              12   33223323
      Canberra             9   23223222
      Hobart              11   23323223    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 26 Nov :
      Macquarie Island    20   22436322
      Casey               21   45433233
      Mawson              27   35434354

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 Nov : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               4   (Quiet)
      Canberra            34   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Hobart              33   (Quiet to unsettled)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             17                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        15
           Planetary             14   1343 3333     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
27 Nov    15    G0
28 Nov    13    G0
29 Nov     8    G0

COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian 
region on UT day 26-Nov. G1-G2 geomagnetic conditions were observed 
in the Antarctic region. A coronal hole wind stream has very 
mildly increased geomagnetic activity. Generally G0 geomagnetic 
conditions are expected over 27-29 Nov, with a chance of an isolated 
G1 period around local midnight.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
26 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
27 Nov      Normal         Fair-normal    Fair
28 Nov      Normal         Fair-normal    Fair
29 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Normal HF conditions are generally expected over 27-29 
Nov. High latitude HF conditions may be degraded over the next 
two days.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
26 Nov    43

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Oct      83
Nov      70
Dec      70

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
27 Nov    55    Depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
28 Nov    55    Depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
29 Nov    70    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 26-Nov were 
15% depressed to near predicted monthly values. The mild ionospheric 
depression is probably in association with a mild increase in 
regional geomagnetic activity induced by a coronal hole wind 
stream. MUFs are expected to be depressed 10-15% to near predicted 
monthly values over 27-28 Nov.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 25 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.5E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  3.0E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B3.0

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 Nov
Speed: 493 km/sec  Density:   10.4 p/cc  Temp:   296000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au



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