[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 26 November 22 issued 2331 UT on 26 Nov 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Nov 27 10:31:06 EST 2022
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/26 NOVEMBER 2022
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 27 NOVEMBER - 29 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Nov: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Nov: 107/57
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
27 Nov 28 Nov 29 Nov
Activity R0 R0 R0
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 108/58 105/54 110/60
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 26-Nov was at the R0 level.
There are currently four numbered sunspot regions visible on
the solar disk. There is no solar region of significance currently
on the solar disk, with only B class flaring observed. Solar
activity is expected to be at the R0 level over 27-29 Nov. No
Earth directed CMEs have been observed. A small section of a
solar filament located near N25-35W20 appears to have partially
lifted off the solar disk during the interval 26/1500-2100UT
(GONG H-alpha), though no plasma motion is visible in available
GOES SUVI imagery, so this is not entirely certain. A northwest
CME is visible in LASCO C2 from 26/1648UT. CME analysis tool
fitting using both STEREO-A and LASCO coronagraph imagery shows
that this CME is more likely to be a behind the limb event and
not associated with the possible filament activity. The solar
wind speed on UT day 26-Nov increased, ranging from 457 to 642
km/s, and is currently near 557 km/s. The peak total interplanetary
field strength (IMF, Bt) was 11 nT, and the north-south IMF component
(Bz) range was +7 to -7, with Bz frequently fluctuating mildly
southward. The solar wind speed is expected to remain elevated
over 27-28 Nov due to a wind stream from a isolated coronal hole
in the northern solar hemisphere which is now past the solar
central meridian. Another isolated equatorial coronal hole is
visible in the eastern solar hemisphere.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Nov: G0
Estimated Indices 26 Nov : A K
Australian Region 11 23233322
Cocos Island 7 22223221
Darwin 9 22232322
Townsville 12 23233332
Learmonth 13 33233323
Alice Springs 12 23233323
Gingin 12 33223323
Canberra 9 23223222
Hobart 11 23323223
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 26 Nov :
Macquarie Island 20 22436322
Casey 21 45433233
Mawson 27 35434354
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 4 (Quiet)
Canberra 34 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 33 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 17
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 14 1343 3333
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
27 Nov 15 G0
28 Nov 13 G0
29 Nov 8 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 26-Nov. G1-G2 geomagnetic conditions were observed
in the Antarctic region. A coronal hole wind stream has very
mildly increased geomagnetic activity. Generally G0 geomagnetic
conditions are expected over 27-29 Nov, with a chance of an isolated
G1 period around local midnight.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Nov Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Nov Normal Fair-normal Fair
28 Nov Normal Fair-normal Fair
29 Nov Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Normal HF conditions are generally expected over 27-29
Nov. High latitude HF conditions may be degraded over the next
two days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
26 Nov 43
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct 83
Nov 70
Dec 70
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
27 Nov 55 Depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
28 Nov 55 Depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
29 Nov 70 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 26-Nov were
15% depressed to near predicted monthly values. The mild ionospheric
depression is probably in association with a mild increase in
regional geomagnetic activity induced by a coronal hole wind
stream. MUFs are expected to be depressed 10-15% to near predicted
monthly values over 27-28 Nov.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 25 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 3.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 Nov
Speed: 493 km/sec Density: 10.4 p/cc Temp: 296000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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