[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 25 November 22 issued 2330 UT on 25 Nov 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Nov 26 10:30:51 EST 2022
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/25 NOVEMBER 2022
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 26 NOVEMBER - 28 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Nov: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Nov: 109/59
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
26 Nov 27 Nov 28 Nov
Activity R0 R0 R0
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 110/60 110/60 108/58
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 25-Nov was at the R0 level,
with a single low level C-class flare from AR3149 (N23W36, alpha).
There are currently four numbered sunspot regions visible on
the solar disk. AR3152 (N28E38, beta) has shown minor spot growth
over the 24-hour period. All other sunspot regions are either
stable or in decay. Solar activity is expected to be at the R0
level over 26-28 Nov. Several CMEs were observed, but none are
considered geoeffective. The solar wind speed on UT day 25-Nov
increased, ranging from 400 to 565 km/s, and is currently near
500 km/s. The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF,
Bt) was 15 nT, and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was
+13 to -12. Several short periods of southward IMF conditions
were observed throughout the UT day. The solar wind speed is
expected to remain elevated over 26-28 Nov.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Nov: G0
Estimated Indices 25 Nov : A K
Australian Region 14 33333233
Cocos Island 9 23222232
Darwin 12 33233223
Townsville 14 33333233
Learmonth 14 33333233
Alice Springs 12 23333223
Gingin 15 33333333
Canberra 13 23333233
Hobart 13 23323333
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 25 Nov :
Macquarie Island 25 23545522
Casey 33 56533244
Mawson 44 36544456
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 Nov :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 4 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 14
Planetary 18
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 4 1220 1012
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
26 Nov 15 G0, slight chance G1
27 Nov 10 G0
28 Nov 8 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 25-Nov. G1-G2 geomagnetic conditions were observed
in the Antarctic region. Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions are
expected over 26-28 Nov, with a slight chance of isolated G1
periods on 26-Nov due to the combination of a possible weak glancing
blow from recent CMEs and small equatorial coronal hole high
speed solar wind stream.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Nov Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
27 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
28 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Normal HF conditions are expected over 26-28 Nov. Mild
degradations are possible for middle to high latitudes on 26-Nov.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
25 Nov 91
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night and after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct 83
Nov 70
Dec 70
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
26 Nov 70 Near predicted monthly values
27 Nov 70 Near predicted monthly values
28 Nov 70 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 25-Nov were
near predicted monthly values. Sporadic-E was observed at most
northern Australian sites during local night hours. MUFs are
expected to be mostly near predicted monthly values over 26-28
Nov, with a chance of degraded HF conditions during local night
hours for the southern Australian region on 26-Nov.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 24 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.7
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 Nov
Speed: 305 km/sec Density: 16.3 p/cc Temp: 26200 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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