[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 24 November 22 issued 2331 UT on 24 Nov 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Nov 25 10:31:19 EST 2022


SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/24 NOVEMBER 2022
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 25 NOVEMBER - 27 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Nov:  R0

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Nov: 110/60


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             25 Nov             26 Nov             27 Nov
Activity     R0                 R0                 R0
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   110/60             110/60             110/60

COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 24-Nov was at R0. There are 
currently four numbered sunspot regions on the solar disk. AR3152 
(N28E53, beta) has shown slight growth. All other sunspot regions 
are either stable or in decay. Solar activity is expected to 
be at R0 levels over 25-27 Nov. A CME can be seen in LASCO and 
STEREO-A imagery from 24/1048UT in the northwest quadrant. Analysis 
suggests it is a farside event and will not be geoeffective. 
A filament eruption can be seen in GOES SUVI imagery from 24/1444UT 
near S30E00. The solar wind speed on UT day 24-Nov was on an 
incline and ranged from 287 to 374 km/s, and is currently near 
370 km/s. The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF, 
Bt) was 15 nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was 
+13 to -11 nT. The increase in solar wind is likely due to a 
small equatorial coronal hole. The solar wind speed is likely 
to remain slightly elevated over 25-26 Nov, possibly returning 
to background levels by 27-Nov.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Nov: G0

Estimated Indices 24 Nov : A   K           
   Australian Region       6   22112123
      Cocos Island         4   01112122
      Darwin               6   22112123
      Townsville           6   22112123
      Learmonth            8   22112224
      Alice Springs        6   21112123
      Gingin               6   21112123
      Canberra             6   22212023
      Hobart               6   22212023    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 24 Nov :
      Macquarie Island     4   12121012
      Casey               16   35432113
      Mawson              11   22212225

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 Nov : 
      Darwin               2   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              7                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         1
           Planetary              2   0000 1011     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
25 Nov    17    G0, chance of G1
26 Nov    15    G0, slight chance G1
27 Nov    10    G0

COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian 
region on UT day 24-Nov. Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions were 
observed in the Antarctic region, with an isolated period of 
G1 at Casey. Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected over 
25-27 Nov, with a chance of isolated G1 periods on 25-26 Nov 
due to the combination of a possible weak glancing blow from 
recent CMEs and small equatorial coronal hole high speed solar 
wind stream.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
24 Nov      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
25 Nov      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair
26 Nov      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair
27 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Normal HF conditions are expected by 25-27 Nov. Mild 
degradation in HF conditions possible on 25-26 Nov middle to 
high latitudes only.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
24 Nov    84

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Oct      83
Nov      70
Dec      70

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
25 Nov    75    Near predicted monthly values
26 Nov    75    Near predicted monthly values
27 Nov    75    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 24-Nov were 
near predicted monthly values. Sporadic-E was observed at most 
northern Australian sites during local night hours. MUFs are 
expected to be mostly near predicted monthly values over 25-27 
Nov, with a chance of degraded HF conditions during local night 
hours for the southern Australian region on 25-26 Nov.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 23 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.6E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.9E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.70E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B2.6

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Nov
Speed: 306 km/sec  Density:   13.5 p/cc  Temp:    16900 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au



More information about the ips-dsgr mailing list