[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 24 November 22 issued 2331 UT on 24 Nov 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Nov 25 10:31:19 EST 2022
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/24 NOVEMBER 2022
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 25 NOVEMBER - 27 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Nov: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Nov: 110/60
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
25 Nov 26 Nov 27 Nov
Activity R0 R0 R0
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 110/60 110/60 110/60
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 24-Nov was at R0. There are
currently four numbered sunspot regions on the solar disk. AR3152
(N28E53, beta) has shown slight growth. All other sunspot regions
are either stable or in decay. Solar activity is expected to
be at R0 levels over 25-27 Nov. A CME can be seen in LASCO and
STEREO-A imagery from 24/1048UT in the northwest quadrant. Analysis
suggests it is a farside event and will not be geoeffective.
A filament eruption can be seen in GOES SUVI imagery from 24/1444UT
near S30E00. The solar wind speed on UT day 24-Nov was on an
incline and ranged from 287 to 374 km/s, and is currently near
370 km/s. The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF,
Bt) was 15 nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was
+13 to -11 nT. The increase in solar wind is likely due to a
small equatorial coronal hole. The solar wind speed is likely
to remain slightly elevated over 25-26 Nov, possibly returning
to background levels by 27-Nov.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Nov: G0
Estimated Indices 24 Nov : A K
Australian Region 6 22112123
Cocos Island 4 01112122
Darwin 6 22112123
Townsville 6 22112123
Learmonth 8 22112224
Alice Springs 6 21112123
Gingin 6 21112123
Canberra 6 22212023
Hobart 6 22212023
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 24 Nov :
Macquarie Island 4 12121012
Casey 16 35432113
Mawson 11 22212225
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 Nov :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 2 0000 1011
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
25 Nov 17 G0, chance of G1
26 Nov 15 G0, slight chance G1
27 Nov 10 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 24-Nov. Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions were
observed in the Antarctic region, with an isolated period of
G1 at Casey. Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected over
25-27 Nov, with a chance of isolated G1 periods on 25-26 Nov
due to the combination of a possible weak glancing blow from
recent CMEs and small equatorial coronal hole high speed solar
wind stream.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Nov Normal-fair Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Nov Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
26 Nov Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
27 Nov Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Normal HF conditions are expected by 25-27 Nov. Mild
degradation in HF conditions possible on 25-26 Nov middle to
high latitudes only.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
24 Nov 84
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct 83
Nov 70
Dec 70
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
25 Nov 75 Near predicted monthly values
26 Nov 75 Near predicted monthly values
27 Nov 75 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 24-Nov were
near predicted monthly values. Sporadic-E was observed at most
northern Australian sites during local night hours. MUFs are
expected to be mostly near predicted monthly values over 25-27
Nov, with a chance of degraded HF conditions during local night
hours for the southern Australian region on 25-26 Nov.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 23 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.70E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.6
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Nov
Speed: 306 km/sec Density: 13.5 p/cc Temp: 16900 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list