[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 23 November 22 issued 2331 UT on 23 Nov 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Nov 24 10:31:07 EST 2022


SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/23 NOVEMBER 2022
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 24 NOVEMBER - 26 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 Nov:  R0

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 Nov: 113/64


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             24 Nov             25 Nov             26 Nov
Activity     R0                 R0                 R0
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   112/63             112/63             112/63

COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 23-Nov was at R0, with only 
sporadic low-level C class flaring. A new small region has recently 
rotated onto the solar disk over the northeast limb, AR3152(N26E60, 
beta). Solar region AR3151(S14W05, beta) is in decay. Other regions 
are stable or in slight decay. There are currently 4 numbered 
solar regions on the disk. Solar activity is expected to be predominately 
at the R0 level, with the chance of isolated R1 activity over 
24-26 Nov. Yesterdays southward CME which was observed from 22/0824UT 
in LASCO C2 has now been correlated with a C7 flare from AR3151 
at 22/0737UT. Event modelling shows this predominately southward 
directed CME may reach the Earth mid to late 25-Nov, with the 
bulk of the CME passing under the Earth. A solar filament in 
SDO304 imagery located at S55W00-W50 lifted off 22/2332UT to 
23/0048UT but did not appear to have an associated CME. Another 
filament also observed in SDO304 imagery, near and perhaps over 
the northwest solar limb lifted off 23/1444-1558UT, with a northwest 
directed CME observed in LASCO C2 from 23/1624UT. Event modelling 
shows this slow CME is very unlikely to reach the Earth. The 
solar wind speed on UT day 22-Nov ranged from 333 to 294 km/s 
with a declining trend and is currently near 290km/s. The total 
peak interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 6 nT and the 
north south IMF component (Bz) range was +3 to -4 nT. A small 
coronal hole may slightly increase solar wind speeds on 24-Nov.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 Nov: G0

Estimated Indices 23 Nov : A   K           
   Australian Region       2   10102111
      Cocos Island         1   00002110
      Darwin               3   11102111
      Townsville           5   21103211
      Learmonth            4   10103211
      Alice Springs        2   10102111
      Gingin               2   10002121
      Canberra             2   10102100
      Hobart               2   11102101    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 23 Nov :
      Macquarie Island     0   00001000
      Casey                6   23321110
      Mawson              12   21101254

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 Nov : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart              14   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              4                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              2   1000 1001     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
24 Nov     8    G0
25 Nov    17    G0, chance of G1
26 Nov    10    G0

COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian 
region on UT day 23-Nov, with an isolated G1 period observed 
at Mawson in the Antarctic region. G0 geomagnetic conditions 
are generally expected over 24-26 Nov, with a chance of an isolated 
G1 period on 25-Nov due to a possible weak glancing blow from 
a recent CME.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
23 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
24 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
25 Nov      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair
26 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Normal HF conditions are expected by 24-26 Nov. Mild 
degradation in HF conditions possible on 25-Nov middle to high 
latitudes only.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
23 Nov    80

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Oct      83
Nov      70
Dec      70

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
24 Nov    75    Near predicted monthly values
25 Nov    75    Near predicted monthly values
26 Nov    75    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 23-Nov were 
near predicted monthly values. MUFs are expected to be mostly 
near predicted monthly values over 24-26 Nov, with a chance of 
degraded HF conditions during local night hours for the southern 
Australian region on 25-Nov.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 22 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.1E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.9E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B5.2

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 Nov
Speed: 379 km/sec  Density:    5.1 p/cc  Temp:    93300 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au



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