[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 23 November 22 issued 2331 UT on 23 Nov 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Nov 24 10:31:07 EST 2022
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/23 NOVEMBER 2022
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 24 NOVEMBER - 26 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 Nov: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 Nov: 113/64
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
24 Nov 25 Nov 26 Nov
Activity R0 R0 R0
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 112/63 112/63 112/63
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 23-Nov was at R0, with only
sporadic low-level C class flaring. A new small region has recently
rotated onto the solar disk over the northeast limb, AR3152(N26E60,
beta). Solar region AR3151(S14W05, beta) is in decay. Other regions
are stable or in slight decay. There are currently 4 numbered
solar regions on the disk. Solar activity is expected to be predominately
at the R0 level, with the chance of isolated R1 activity over
24-26 Nov. Yesterdays southward CME which was observed from 22/0824UT
in LASCO C2 has now been correlated with a C7 flare from AR3151
at 22/0737UT. Event modelling shows this predominately southward
directed CME may reach the Earth mid to late 25-Nov, with the
bulk of the CME passing under the Earth. A solar filament in
SDO304 imagery located at S55W00-W50 lifted off 22/2332UT to
23/0048UT but did not appear to have an associated CME. Another
filament also observed in SDO304 imagery, near and perhaps over
the northwest solar limb lifted off 23/1444-1558UT, with a northwest
directed CME observed in LASCO C2 from 23/1624UT. Event modelling
shows this slow CME is very unlikely to reach the Earth. The
solar wind speed on UT day 22-Nov ranged from 333 to 294 km/s
with a declining trend and is currently near 290km/s. The total
peak interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 6 nT and the
north south IMF component (Bz) range was +3 to -4 nT. A small
coronal hole may slightly increase solar wind speeds on 24-Nov.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 Nov: G0
Estimated Indices 23 Nov : A K
Australian Region 2 10102111
Cocos Island 1 00002110
Darwin 3 11102111
Townsville 5 21103211
Learmonth 4 10103211
Alice Springs 2 10102111
Gingin 2 10002121
Canberra 2 10102100
Hobart 2 11102101
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 23 Nov :
Macquarie Island 0 00001000
Casey 6 23321110
Mawson 12 21101254
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 14 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 2 1000 1001
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
24 Nov 8 G0
25 Nov 17 G0, chance of G1
26 Nov 10 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 23-Nov, with an isolated G1 period observed
at Mawson in the Antarctic region. G0 geomagnetic conditions
are generally expected over 24-26 Nov, with a chance of an isolated
G1 period on 25-Nov due to a possible weak glancing blow from
a recent CME.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Nov Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
25 Nov Normal Normal-fair Fair
26 Nov Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Normal HF conditions are expected by 24-26 Nov. Mild
degradation in HF conditions possible on 25-Nov middle to high
latitudes only.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
23 Nov 80
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct 83
Nov 70
Dec 70
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
24 Nov 75 Near predicted monthly values
25 Nov 75 Near predicted monthly values
26 Nov 75 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 23-Nov were
near predicted monthly values. MUFs are expected to be mostly
near predicted monthly values over 24-26 Nov, with a chance of
degraded HF conditions during local night hours for the southern
Australian region on 25-Nov.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 22 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B5.2
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 Nov
Speed: 379 km/sec Density: 5.1 p/cc Temp: 93300 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list