[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 22 November 22 issued 2331 UT on 22 Nov 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Nov 23 10:31:09 EST 2022
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/22 NOVEMBER 2022
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 23 NOVEMBER - 25 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Nov: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Nov: 116/68
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
23 Nov 24 Nov 25 Nov
Activity R0 R0 R0
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 118/70 118/70 118/70
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 22-Nov was at R0, with low-level
C class flaring from recently emerging solar region AR3151(S11E09,
beta). The largest C-flare from this solar region was a C7.0
at 22/0727UT. With region AR3050 departing over the northwest
solar limb there are currently three numbered sunspot regions
on the solar disk. The recent rapid growth in AR3151 appears
to have now slowed, and the other sunspot regions are in slight
decay. Solar activity is expected to be predominately at the
R0 level, with the chance of isolated R1 activity over 23-25
Nov. No geoeffective CMEs were observed. A small solar filament
slowly lifted off the solar disk S05E35 (GONG Chile) 22/13-17UT,
which may have been associated with a very narrow eastward CME.
A southward CME was observed 22/0824UT in LASCO C2 but could
not be confidently be correlated with any on disk activity. The
solar wind speed on UT day 22-Nov ranged from 403 to 338 km/s
with a declining trend and is currently near 325 km/s. The total
peak interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 6 nT and the
north south IMF component (Bz) range was +4 to -3 nT. A small
coronal hole may slightly increase solar wind speeds on 23-24-Nov.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Nov: G0
Estimated Indices 22 Nov : A K
Australian Region 2 11111110
Cocos Island 1 01011110
Darwin 3 11111111
Townsville 4 22111111
Learmonth 2 11110110
Alice Springs 1 11011100
Gingin 3 11111210
Canberra 2 02110100
Hobart 2 02111100
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 22 Nov :
Macquarie Island 0 01100000
Casey 10 34321211
Mawson 7 33112212
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 4 (Quiet)
Canberra 15 (Quiet)
Hobart 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 7 3322 1101
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
23 Nov 10 G0
24 Nov 8 G0
25 Nov 5 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
and Antarctic regions on UT day 22-Nov. G0 geomagnetic conditions
are expected over 23-25 Nov.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Nov Normal Normal Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
24 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
25 Nov Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Normal HF conditions are expected by 23-25 Nov.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
22 Nov 53
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct 83
Nov 70
Dec 70
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
23 Nov 70 Near predicted monthly values
24 Nov 70 Near predicted monthly values
25 Nov 70 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC HF Communications Warning 89 was issued on 22
November and is current for 22-23 Nov. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) on UT day 22-Nov were 15-20% depressed to near predicted
monthly values. The cause of the recent depressed ionospheric
conditions in the Australian region is unclear. In general MUFs
are expected to be mostly near predicted monthly values over
23-25 Nov.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 21 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.8
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Nov
Speed: 410 km/sec Density: 9.4 p/cc Temp: 114000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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