[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 21 November 22 issued 2331 UT on 21 Nov 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Nov 22 10:31:14 EST 2022
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/21 NOVEMBER 2022
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 22 NOVEMBER - 24 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Nov: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Nov: 117/69
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
22 Nov 23 Nov 24 Nov
Activity R0 R0 R0
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 118/70 115/66 115/66
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 21-Nov was at R0, with low-level
C class flaring only. There are currently four numbered sunspot
regions on the solar disk. AR31049 (N23E18, beta) has increased
in flare potential but has not yet produced any significant flares.
All other sunspot regions are either stable or in decay. Solar
activity is expected to be at R0 levels over 22-24 Nov, with
a slight chance of R1. No geoeffective CMEs were observed. The
solar wind speed on UT day 21-Nov was slightly elevated, and
ranged from 469 to 387 km/s and is currently near 400 km/s on
a steady trend. The total peak interplanetary field strength
(IMF, Bt) was 11 nT and the north south IMF component (Bz) range
was +9 to -11 nT. Bz was intermittently southward from 20/2330
until 21/0930. The expected increase in solar wind speed due
to a large coronal hole has failed to eventuate, however may
still occur on 22-Nov. The solar wind speed may also increase
on 22-Nov due to a possible weak glancing blow from a CME first
seen 19-Nov, however confidence is low. A small equatorial coronal
hole may increase solar wind speeds on 23-Nov.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Nov: G0
Estimated Indices 21 Nov : A K
Australian Region 7 32222211
Cocos Island 3 21212010
Darwin 7 32222121
Townsville 8 32222222
Learmonth 9 32232222
Alice Springs 7 32222211
Gingin 7 32222212
Canberra 7 32222211
Hobart 7 32222212
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 21 Nov :
Macquarie Island 10 33233211
Casey 24 55533222
Mawson 22 45333225
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 15 (Quiet)
Canberra 31 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 32 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 17
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 3 1000 0222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
22 Nov 14 G0, slight chance G1
23 Nov 10 G0
24 Nov 8 G0
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 54 was issued on 21 November
and is current for 21-22 Nov. G0 geomagnetic conditions were
observed in the Australian region on UT day 21-Nov. G0-G1 geomagnetic
conditions were observed in the Antarctic region. Generally G0
geomagnetic conditions are expected over 22-24 Nov, with the
possibility of isolated G1 periods on 22-Nov. The expected increase
in geomagnetic activity has failed to eventuate, however may
still occur on 22-Nov, especially combined with a possible weak
glancing blow from a CME first observed 19-Nov.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Nov Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Nov Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
23 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
24 Nov Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mild degradations are possible on 22-Nov, particularly
during local night hours. Normal HF conditions are expected by
23-24 Nov.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
21 Nov 47
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct 83
Nov 70
Dec 70
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
22 Nov 60 Near predicted monthly values to 10-15% depressed
23 Nov 70 Near predicted monthly values
24 Nov 75 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 21-Nov were
mostly near predicted monthly values, with some depressions of
20% in the northern Australian regions and of 15% in the southern
Australian regions after local dawn. Mild depressions of 10-15%
may continue over 22-Nov during local night hours, but are generally
expected to be near predicted monthly values over 23-24 Nov.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 20 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 3.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.70E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.9
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 Nov
Speed: 332 km/sec Density: 9.2 p/cc Temp: 42400 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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