[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 20 November 22 issued 2331 UT on 20 Nov 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Nov 21 10:31:14 EST 2022


SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/20 NOVEMBER 2022
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 21 NOVEMBER - 23 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Nov:  R0

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Nov: 119/71


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             21 Nov             22 Nov             23 Nov
Activity     R0, chance of R1   R0                 R0
Fadeouts     Possible           None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   120/72             125/78             125/78

COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 20-Nov was at the R0 level, 
with a single C-class flare from solar region AR3150 (N21W67, 
beta). There are currently four numbered sunspot regions on the 
solar disk. AR3149 (N23E31, beta) has grown substantially. AR3150 
has decayed. All other sunspot regions are stable. Solar activity 
is expected to be at R0 levels over 21-23 Nov, with a slight 
chance of isolated low-level R1 flares. A filament eruption can 
be seen in H-alpha and GOES SUVI imagery on the limb in the south 
quadrant. A narrow southward directed CME can be observed from 
the filament eruption, however is not considered geoeffective. 
A northwest directed CME can be observed in STEREO-A imagery 
from 20/1238UT. While there are large gaps in the available imagery, 
analysis suggests it is slow and not geoeffective. The solar 
wind speed on UT day 20-Nov ranged from 312 to 415 km/s, and 
is currently near 415 km/s on a slight incline, possibly suggesting 
the late arrival of the coronal hole high speed wind stream. 
The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 12 
nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was +9 to -9 
nT. Bz was southward oriented from 20/1535 to 20/1710UT. The 
solar wind speed is expected to continue to increase over 21-22 
Nov due to the late arrival of a coronal hole high speed wind 
stream, and then possibly easing by 23-Nov.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Nov: G0

Estimated Indices 20 Nov : A   K           
   Australian Region       6   11101332
      Cocos Island         5   10011331
      Darwin               6   11101332
      Townsville           7   11112332
      Learmonth            7   20002342
      Alice Springs        6   10102332
      Gingin               5   20001332
      Canberra             5   11001332
      Hobart               6   11101332    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 20 Nov :
      Macquarie Island     3   10000231
      Casey               14   34422232
      Mawson              10   23112333

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 Nov : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra            21   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Hobart              29   (Quiet to unsettled)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              3   2011 0001     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
21 Nov    18    G0-G1
22 Nov    14    G0, chance G1
23 Nov    10    G0

COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in both the 
Australian region and Antarctic region on UT day 20-Nov. The 
anticipated increase in geomagnetic activity failed to eventuate, 
however may be expected to arrive over 21-Nov. Periods of G1 
geomagnetic activity may be expected over 21-22 Nov due to high 
speed solar wind streams from a broad coronal hole, with G0 geomagnetic 
conditions expected by 23-Nov.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
20 Nov      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
21 Nov      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair
22 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
23 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Mild degradations are possible late 21-Nov to 22-Nov 
at middle to high latitudes, particularly during local night 
hours, due to anticipated geomagnetic activity from a coronal 
hole high speed wind stream, which has yet to eventuate.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
20 Nov    81

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Oct      83
Nov      70
Dec      70

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
21 Nov    65    Near predicted monthly values to 10-15% depressed
22 Nov    60    Near predicted monthly values to 15% depressed
23 Nov    70    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 20-Nov were 
mostly near predicted monthly values. Sporadic-E was observed 
at most sites during local night hours. Mildly degraded ionospheric 
conditions were observed At Darwin and Learmonth during local 
night hours. MUFs are generally expected to be at predicted monthly 
values over 21-23 Nov, with mild depressions possible in local 
night hours to high latitude regions in response to anticipated 
geomagnetic activity from a coronal hole.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 19 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.3E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  3.0E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B6.0

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Nov
Speed: 365 km/sec  Density:    7.5 p/cc  Temp:    84300 K  Bz:   3 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au



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