[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 20 November 22 issued 2331 UT on 20 Nov 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Nov 21 10:31:14 EST 2022
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/20 NOVEMBER 2022
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 21 NOVEMBER - 23 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Nov: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Nov: 119/71
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
21 Nov 22 Nov 23 Nov
Activity R0, chance of R1 R0 R0
Fadeouts Possible None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 120/72 125/78 125/78
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 20-Nov was at the R0 level,
with a single C-class flare from solar region AR3150 (N21W67,
beta). There are currently four numbered sunspot regions on the
solar disk. AR3149 (N23E31, beta) has grown substantially. AR3150
has decayed. All other sunspot regions are stable. Solar activity
is expected to be at R0 levels over 21-23 Nov, with a slight
chance of isolated low-level R1 flares. A filament eruption can
be seen in H-alpha and GOES SUVI imagery on the limb in the south
quadrant. A narrow southward directed CME can be observed from
the filament eruption, however is not considered geoeffective.
A northwest directed CME can be observed in STEREO-A imagery
from 20/1238UT. While there are large gaps in the available imagery,
analysis suggests it is slow and not geoeffective. The solar
wind speed on UT day 20-Nov ranged from 312 to 415 km/s, and
is currently near 415 km/s on a slight incline, possibly suggesting
the late arrival of the coronal hole high speed wind stream.
The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 12
nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was +9 to -9
nT. Bz was southward oriented from 20/1535 to 20/1710UT. The
solar wind speed is expected to continue to increase over 21-22
Nov due to the late arrival of a coronal hole high speed wind
stream, and then possibly easing by 23-Nov.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Nov: G0
Estimated Indices 20 Nov : A K
Australian Region 6 11101332
Cocos Island 5 10011331
Darwin 6 11101332
Townsville 7 11112332
Learmonth 7 20002342
Alice Springs 6 10102332
Gingin 5 20001332
Canberra 5 11001332
Hobart 6 11101332
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 20 Nov :
Macquarie Island 3 10000231
Casey 14 34422232
Mawson 10 23112333
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 21 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 29 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 3 2011 0001
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
21 Nov 18 G0-G1
22 Nov 14 G0, chance G1
23 Nov 10 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in both the
Australian region and Antarctic region on UT day 20-Nov. The
anticipated increase in geomagnetic activity failed to eventuate,
however may be expected to arrive over 21-Nov. Periods of G1
geomagnetic activity may be expected over 21-22 Nov due to high
speed solar wind streams from a broad coronal hole, with G0 geomagnetic
conditions expected by 23-Nov.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Nov Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Nov Normal Normal-fair Fair
22 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
23 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mild degradations are possible late 21-Nov to 22-Nov
at middle to high latitudes, particularly during local night
hours, due to anticipated geomagnetic activity from a coronal
hole high speed wind stream, which has yet to eventuate.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
20 Nov 81
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct 83
Nov 70
Dec 70
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
21 Nov 65 Near predicted monthly values to 10-15% depressed
22 Nov 60 Near predicted monthly values to 15% depressed
23 Nov 70 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 20-Nov were
mostly near predicted monthly values. Sporadic-E was observed
at most sites during local night hours. Mildly degraded ionospheric
conditions were observed At Darwin and Learmonth during local
night hours. MUFs are generally expected to be at predicted monthly
values over 21-23 Nov, with mild depressions possible in local
night hours to high latitude regions in response to anticipated
geomagnetic activity from a coronal hole.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 19 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.3E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 3.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B6.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Nov
Speed: 365 km/sec Density: 7.5 p/cc Temp: 84300 K Bz: 3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list