[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 19 November 22 issued 2331 UT on 19 Nov 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Nov 20 10:31:08 EST 2022
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/19 NOVEMBER 2022
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 20 NOVEMBER - 22 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Nov: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1/-- 1256UT possible lower European
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Nov: 115/66
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
20 Nov 21 Nov 22 Nov
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 115/66 115/66 120/72
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 19-Nov was at the R1 level,
due to an isolated M1.6 flare from solar region AR3050 (N21W56,
beta). This region also produced a C8.3 flare at 19/0623UT. After
initial rapid growth the development of AR3050 appears to have
now somewhat slowed, with the region perhaps showing a more open
spot configuration. Solar region AR3147 (S10E32, beta) produced
three C class flares. There are currently 4 numbered regions
on the solar disk. The other two regions were mostly flare quiet.
Solar activity is expected to be at the R0 level over 20-22 Nov,
with a chance for a further isolated R1 flare. No geoeffective
CMEs were observed in available space based coronagraph imagery.
A southwest CME was observed in LASCO C2 from 19/0348UT and appears
to be a farside event. A small thin solar filament was observed
to have slowly erupted between 18/2236-19/0154UT (GONG Halpha
- Mauna Loa) located near N05E10, which did not appear to be
associated with a CME, though there are large data gaps in available
coronagraph imagery. Another solar filament located at N50E40
erupted at 19/0600UT (GOES SUVI imagery), possibly associated
with a faint narrow north eastward CME in LASCO C2 imagery from
19/0724UT. Due to this filaments solar disk location it is considered
unlikely to be geoeffective. Whilst the C8.3 flare showed evidence
of a shockwave in SDO193 imagery no CME appeared to be associated
with this flare. A CME was observed to the northwest from 19/1336UT
in LASCO C2 imagery following the M1.6 flare. Event modelling
shows this slow narrow CME as an Earth miss. The solar wind speed
on UT day 19-Nov ranged from 324 to 393 km/s with an overall
declining trend following yesterday's slight jump in wind speed
and total field late in the UT day on 18-Nov, which may be an
indistinct very weak CME signature. A general increase in solar
wind speed was expected over 19-Nov due to a coronal hole in
the southern solar hemisphere which is now west of solar central
meridian. The solar wind speed is currently near 350 km/s. The
peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 12 nT
and the north-south IMF component range was +11 to -4 nT, with
Bz oriented predominately mildly northward for most of the day.
The solar wind speed is still expected to increase in response
to a high speed wind stream from a broad coronal hole over 20-21
Nov.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Nov: G0
Estimated Indices 19 Nov : A K
Australian Region 4 20122111
Cocos Island 3 20122100
Darwin 4 20122111
Townsville 6 30132111
Learmonth 6 31122112
Alice Springs 4 21122111
Gingin 4 20122112
Canberra 3 20122011
Hobart 3 21121011
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 19 Nov :
Macquarie Island 0 10100000
Casey 17 44442123
Mawson 7 32222122
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 4 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5 0001 1232
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
20 Nov 20 G0-G1
21 Nov 20 G0-G1
22 Nov 14 G0
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 53 was issued on 18 November
and is current for 19-20 Nov. G0 geomagnetic conditions were
observed in both the Australian region and the Antarctic region
on UT day 19-Nov. The anticipated increase in geomagnetic activity
over 19-Nov failed to eventuate. Periods of G1 geomagnetic conditions
remain expected over 20-21 Nov due to a high speed wind stream
from a broad coronal hole.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Nov Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Nov Normal Normal-fair Fair
21 Nov Normal Normal-fair Fair
22 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mild degradations are possible late 20-Nov to 21-Nov
at middle to high latitudes, particularly during local night
hours, due to anticipated geomagnetic activity from a coronal
hole high speed wind stream, which has yet to eventuate.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
19 Nov 71
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct 83
Nov 70
Dec 70
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
20 Nov 75 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
15%
21 Nov 65 Depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
22 Nov 65 Depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 19-Nov were
mostly near predicted monthly values. MUFs are generally expected
to be near predicted monthly values. Mild depressions are possible
in the southern Australian region 21-Nov and 22-Nov in response
to anticipated geomagnetic activity induced from a coronal hole
high speed wind stream, which is yet to eventuate.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 18 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.6E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 3.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.70E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B7.5
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Nov
Speed: 323 km/sec Density: 6.6 p/cc Temp: 47500 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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