[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 18 November 22 issued 2331 UT on 18 Nov 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Nov 19 10:31:08 EST 2022


SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/18 NOVEMBER 2022
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 19 NOVEMBER - 21 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 Nov:  R0

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 Nov: 116/68


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             19 Nov             20 Nov             21 Nov
Activity     R0                 R0                 R0
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   115/66             115/66             115/66

COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 18-Nov was at the R0 level, 
with C-class flaring only. The C class flares were from departing 
solar regions AR3140 and AR3145 which have just rotated over 
the solar north west limb, and from on disk AR3148 (S32E36, alpha) 
and newly emerging region AR3150(N18W39, beta). This new region 
has emerged relatively quickly and will be monitored for further 
development. There are currently 4 numbered regions on the solar 
disk. Solar activity is expected to be at the R0 level over 19-21 
Nov. No geoeffective CMEs were observed in available space based 
coronagraph imagery. Departing solar region AR3140 produced a 
C5.5 flare at 18/0914UT, which was associated with a northwest 
directed CME first visible in LASCO C2 at 18/0936UT. Due to the 
western limb location of this event it is not considered geoeffective. 
The solar wind speed on UT day 18-Nov ranged from 306 to 351 
km/s for most of the UT day. The solar wind speed is currently 
near 380 km/s, with a little jump in IMF total field and wind 
speed at 18/2226UT. The peak total interplanetary field strength 
(IMF, Bt) was 12 nT and the north-south IMF component range was 
+8 to -10 nT. An interval of mildly southward IMF conditions 
was observed 18/1600-1930UT. The solar wind speed is expected 
to increase over 19-Nov in response to a high speed wind stream 
from a broad coronal hole and remain elevated over 20-21-Nov. 
On this holes previous rotation a southward bay in the north-south 
IMF component preceded the increase in solar wind speed.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 Nov: G0

Estimated Indices 18 Nov : A   K           
   Australian Region       6   11112133
      Cocos Island         4   -0011132
      Darwin               6   11112133
      Townsville           8   21122233
      Learmonth            5   10112132
      Alice Springs        5   01112123
      Gingin               5   10012133
      Canberra             5   01112123
      Hobart               4   00112123    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 18 Nov :
      Macquarie Island     4   00023122
      Casey               13   33332233
      Mawson              15   32222254

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 Nov : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               2   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         1
           Planetary              1   0000 1000     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
19 Nov    16    G0-G1
20 Nov    24    G0-G1
21 Nov    18    G0, chance G1

COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 53 was issued on 18 November 
and is current for 19-20 Nov. G0 geomagnetic conditions were 
observed in both the Australian region and the Antarctic region 
on UT day 18-Nov. Periods of G1 geomagnetic conditions are expected 
over 19-21 Nov due to a high speed wind stream from a broad coronal 
hole.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
18 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
19 Nov      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair
20 Nov      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair
21 Nov      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair

COMMENT: Mild degradations are possible late 19-Nov to 21-Nov 
at middle to high latitudes, particularly during local night 
hours, due to anticipated geomagnetic activity from a coronal 
hole high speed wind stream.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
18 Nov    89

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15-25%.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Oct      83
Nov      70
Dec      70

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
19 Nov    80    Near predicted monthly values
20 Nov    70    Depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
21 Nov    70    Depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 18-Nov were 
generally near predicted monthly values, with enhanced conditions 
observed at Niue. Southern Australian region MUFs were very mildly 
depressed after local dawn this morning and MUFs are generally 
expected to be mostly near predicted monthly values for today. 
Mild with the chance for moderate depressions are expected in 
the southern Australian region 20-Nov and 21-Nov in response 
to anticipated geomagnetic activity induced from a coronal hole 
high speed wind stream.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 17 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.3E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  3.0E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.30E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: C1.1

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 Nov
Speed: 364 km/sec  Density:    3.6 p/cc  Temp:    70600 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au



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