[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 18 November 22 issued 2331 UT on 18 Nov 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Nov 19 10:31:08 EST 2022
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/18 NOVEMBER 2022
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 19 NOVEMBER - 21 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 Nov: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 Nov: 116/68
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
19 Nov 20 Nov 21 Nov
Activity R0 R0 R0
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 115/66 115/66 115/66
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 18-Nov was at the R0 level,
with C-class flaring only. The C class flares were from departing
solar regions AR3140 and AR3145 which have just rotated over
the solar north west limb, and from on disk AR3148 (S32E36, alpha)
and newly emerging region AR3150(N18W39, beta). This new region
has emerged relatively quickly and will be monitored for further
development. There are currently 4 numbered regions on the solar
disk. Solar activity is expected to be at the R0 level over 19-21
Nov. No geoeffective CMEs were observed in available space based
coronagraph imagery. Departing solar region AR3140 produced a
C5.5 flare at 18/0914UT, which was associated with a northwest
directed CME first visible in LASCO C2 at 18/0936UT. Due to the
western limb location of this event it is not considered geoeffective.
The solar wind speed on UT day 18-Nov ranged from 306 to 351
km/s for most of the UT day. The solar wind speed is currently
near 380 km/s, with a little jump in IMF total field and wind
speed at 18/2226UT. The peak total interplanetary field strength
(IMF, Bt) was 12 nT and the north-south IMF component range was
+8 to -10 nT. An interval of mildly southward IMF conditions
was observed 18/1600-1930UT. The solar wind speed is expected
to increase over 19-Nov in response to a high speed wind stream
from a broad coronal hole and remain elevated over 20-21-Nov.
On this holes previous rotation a southward bay in the north-south
IMF component preceded the increase in solar wind speed.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 Nov: G0
Estimated Indices 18 Nov : A K
Australian Region 6 11112133
Cocos Island 4 -0011132
Darwin 6 11112133
Townsville 8 21122233
Learmonth 5 10112132
Alice Springs 5 01112123
Gingin 5 10012133
Canberra 5 01112123
Hobart 4 00112123
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 18 Nov :
Macquarie Island 4 00023122
Casey 13 33332233
Mawson 15 32222254
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 1 0000 1000
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
19 Nov 16 G0-G1
20 Nov 24 G0-G1
21 Nov 18 G0, chance G1
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 53 was issued on 18 November
and is current for 19-20 Nov. G0 geomagnetic conditions were
observed in both the Australian region and the Antarctic region
on UT day 18-Nov. Periods of G1 geomagnetic conditions are expected
over 19-21 Nov due to a high speed wind stream from a broad coronal
hole.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Nov Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Nov Normal Normal-fair Fair
20 Nov Normal Normal-fair Fair
21 Nov Normal Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: Mild degradations are possible late 19-Nov to 21-Nov
at middle to high latitudes, particularly during local night
hours, due to anticipated geomagnetic activity from a coronal
hole high speed wind stream.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
18 Nov 89
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15-25%.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct 83
Nov 70
Dec 70
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
19 Nov 80 Near predicted monthly values
20 Nov 70 Depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
21 Nov 70 Depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 18-Nov were
generally near predicted monthly values, with enhanced conditions
observed at Niue. Southern Australian region MUFs were very mildly
depressed after local dawn this morning and MUFs are generally
expected to be mostly near predicted monthly values for today.
Mild with the chance for moderate depressions are expected in
the southern Australian region 20-Nov and 21-Nov in response
to anticipated geomagnetic activity induced from a coronal hole
high speed wind stream.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 17 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.3E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 3.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.30E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.1
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 Nov
Speed: 364 km/sec Density: 3.6 p/cc Temp: 70600 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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