[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 17 November 22 issued 2330 UT on 17 Nov 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Nov 18 10:30:54 EST 2022
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/17 NOVEMBER 2022
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 18 NOVEMBER - 20 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Nov: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Nov: 119/71
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
18 Nov 19 Nov 20 Nov
Activity R0, chance of R1 R0 R0
Fadeouts Possible None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 118/70 118/70 118/70
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 17-Nov was at the R0 level,
with C-class flaring only. There are currently four numbered
sunspot regions on the solar disk. AR3146 (N33W19, alpha), AR3147
(S08E48, alpha), AR3148 (S33E43, alpha) have all been stable
and AR3149 (N23E70. beta) has shown some slight growth but has
not yet produced any flares. Solar activity is expected to be
at the R0 level over 18-20 Nov. No geoeffective CMEs were observed
in available imagery. The solar wind speed on UT day 17-Nov was
on a mild incline, and ranged from 299 to 392 km/s. The solar
wind speed is currently near 360 km/s. The peak total interplanetary
field strength (IMF, Bt) was 8 nT and the north-south IMF component
range was +6 to -2 nT. The solar wind speed is expected to remain
at background levels over 18-Nov, increasing on 19-Nov in response
to a moderately large coronal hole high speed wind stream and
remaining elevated over 20-Nov.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Nov: G0
Estimated Indices 17 Nov : A K
Australian Region 1 10001011
Cocos Island 1 10011000
Darwin 1 10101011
Townsville 1 11001011
Learmonth 1 10001011
Alice Springs 1 10001011
Gingin 1 10001001
Canberra 0 01001000
Hobart 1 11001000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 17 Nov :
Macquarie Island 0 01000000
Casey 7 33321011
Mawson 5 23101022
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 3
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 2 1000 0101
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
18 Nov 6 G0
19 Nov 16 G0-G1
20 Nov 24 G0-G1
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in both the
Australian region and the Antarctic region on UT day 17-Nov.
G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected over 18-Nov. Periods of
G1 geomagnetic conditions are expected over 19-20 Nov due to
a moderately large coronal hole high speed wind stream.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Nov Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Nov Normal Normal Normal
19 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
20 Nov Normal Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
over 18-Nov and early 19-Nov. Mild degradations are possible
late 19-Nov and 20-Nov in high latitudes due to anticipated geomagnetic
activity from a coronal hole high speed wind stream.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
17 Nov 93
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct 83
Nov 70
Dec 70
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
18 Nov 85 Near predicted monthly values
19 Nov 80 Near predicted monthly values to 15% depressed
20 Nov 70 Near predicted monthly values to 15% depressed
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 17-Nov were
generally near predicted monthly values, with 30% enhancements
in the northern Australian region and 25% enhancements at Cocos
islands. Sporadic-E was observed at most northern sites during
local night hours. MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly
values to mildly enhanced over 18-19 Nov. Some depressions are
expected in southern regions late 19-Nov and 20-Nov in response
to anticipated geomagnetic activity from a moderately large coronal
hole high speed wind stream.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 16 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.8E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 3.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.90E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.2
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Nov
Speed: 343 km/sec Density: 2.5 p/cc Temp: 61100 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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