[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 16 November 22 issued 2331 UT on 16 Nov 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Nov 17 10:31:14 EST 2022


SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/16 NOVEMBER 2022
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 17 NOVEMBER - 19 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Nov:  R0

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Nov: 133/87


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             17 Nov             18 Nov             19 Nov
Activity     R0, chance R1      R0, chance R1      R0
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           None expected
10.7cm/SSN   133/87             125/78             122/75

COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 16-Nov was at the R0 level, 
with C-class flaring only. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot 
regions on the solar disk. AR3140 (N23W87, beta) and AR3141 (N14W78, 
beta) have been stable and will rotate over the western limb 
today. AR3145 (N25W74, beta) has shown some growth. AR3146 (N33W06, 
alpha) is stable. Solar activity is expected to be at the R0 
level over 17-19 Nov, with a chance of isolated low-level R1 
flares from AR3140 on 17-Nov. A filament eruption was observed 
in H-alpha and GOES SUVI imagery at 16/1048UT near S30W30. A 
CME was observed from the southwest quadrant from 16/1336UT. 
It is not expected to be geoeffective. No other CMEs were observed. 
The solar wind speed on UT day 16-Nov showed a mildly declining 
trend from 396 to 311 km/s, and is currently near 315 km/s. The 
peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 5 nT and 
the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was +5 to -4 nT. The 
solar wind speed is expected to remain at background levels over 
17-18 Nov, with a slight chance of increasing on late 17-Nov 
due to the possibility of an impact from a glancing blow of a 
recent CME. The solar wind may then possibly increase on 19-Nov 
in response to a moderately large coronal hole currently near 
the southeast quadrant about to cross the central meridian.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Nov: G0

Estimated Indices 16 Nov : A   K           
   Australian Region       1   11000101
      Cocos Island         1   11010100
      Darwin               2   11100112
      Townsville           2   20001111
      Learmonth            2   21010102
      Alice Springs        1   10000102
      Gingin               3   21010202
      Canberra             1   10000101
      Hobart               1   10000101    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 16 Nov :
      Macquarie Island     0   10000000
      Casey               10   33331221
      Mawson               8   22121242

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 Nov : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              3                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              2   0100 0001     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
17 Nov    15    G0, slight chance of G1
18 Nov    10    G0
19 Nov    16    G0, chance of G1

COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian 
and Antarctic regions on 16-Nov. Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions 
are expected on 17-Nov, with a slight chance of G1 due to the 
possibility of a glancing blow of a recent CME. G0 geomagnetic 
conditions are expected on 18-19 Nov, with the possibility of 
G1 conditions late on 19-Nov in response to a moderately large 
coronal hole high speed wind streams.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
16 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
17 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
18 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal
19 Nov      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair-normal

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected 
over 17-18 Nov. There is a slight possibility of mildly degraded 
conditions at local night in high latitudes. Mostly normal HF 
propagation conditions are expected on 19-Nov, with a chance 
of mild degradations at local night due to anticipated geomagnetic 
activity from a coronal hole high speed wind stream.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
16 Nov    95

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Oct      83
Nov      70
Dec      70

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
17 Nov    85    Near predicted monthly values
18 Nov    80    Near predicted monthly values
19 Nov    70    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 87 was issued on 
15 November and is current for 15-17 Nov. Maximum usable frequencies 
(MUFs) on UT day 16-Nov were generally near predicted monthly 
values, with enhancements of 15% in the Australian region and 
enhancements of 25% at Cocos Islands during local day. Sporadic-E 
was observed at most sites during local night hours. MUFs are 
expected to be near predicted monthly values to mildly enhanced 
over 17-18 Nov. There is a possibility of 15% depressions by 
the end of 19-Nov in the southern Australian regions due to anticipated 
geomagnetic activity from coronal hole high speed wind streams. 
Isolated shortwave fadeouts are possible on 17-Nov.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 15 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.9E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  3.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.00E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: C1.2

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Nov
Speed: 411 km/sec  Density:    4.0 p/cc  Temp:   109000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au



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