[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 16 November 22 issued 2331 UT on 16 Nov 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Nov 17 10:31:14 EST 2022
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/16 NOVEMBER 2022
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 17 NOVEMBER - 19 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Nov: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Nov: 133/87
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
17 Nov 18 Nov 19 Nov
Activity R0, chance R1 R0, chance R1 R0
Fadeouts Possible Possible None expected
10.7cm/SSN 133/87 125/78 122/75
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 16-Nov was at the R0 level,
with C-class flaring only. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot
regions on the solar disk. AR3140 (N23W87, beta) and AR3141 (N14W78,
beta) have been stable and will rotate over the western limb
today. AR3145 (N25W74, beta) has shown some growth. AR3146 (N33W06,
alpha) is stable. Solar activity is expected to be at the R0
level over 17-19 Nov, with a chance of isolated low-level R1
flares from AR3140 on 17-Nov. A filament eruption was observed
in H-alpha and GOES SUVI imagery at 16/1048UT near S30W30. A
CME was observed from the southwest quadrant from 16/1336UT.
It is not expected to be geoeffective. No other CMEs were observed.
The solar wind speed on UT day 16-Nov showed a mildly declining
trend from 396 to 311 km/s, and is currently near 315 km/s. The
peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 5 nT and
the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was +5 to -4 nT. The
solar wind speed is expected to remain at background levels over
17-18 Nov, with a slight chance of increasing on late 17-Nov
due to the possibility of an impact from a glancing blow of a
recent CME. The solar wind may then possibly increase on 19-Nov
in response to a moderately large coronal hole currently near
the southeast quadrant about to cross the central meridian.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Nov: G0
Estimated Indices 16 Nov : A K
Australian Region 1 11000101
Cocos Island 1 11010100
Darwin 2 11100112
Townsville 2 20001111
Learmonth 2 21010102
Alice Springs 1 10000102
Gingin 3 21010202
Canberra 1 10000101
Hobart 1 10000101
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 16 Nov :
Macquarie Island 0 10000000
Casey 10 33331221
Mawson 8 22121242
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 3
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 2 0100 0001
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
17 Nov 15 G0, slight chance of G1
18 Nov 10 G0
19 Nov 16 G0, chance of G1
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
and Antarctic regions on 16-Nov. Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions
are expected on 17-Nov, with a slight chance of G1 due to the
possibility of a glancing blow of a recent CME. G0 geomagnetic
conditions are expected on 18-19 Nov, with the possibility of
G1 conditions late on 19-Nov in response to a moderately large
coronal hole high speed wind streams.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Nov Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
18 Nov Normal Normal Normal
19 Nov Normal Normal-fair Fair-normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
over 17-18 Nov. There is a slight possibility of mildly degraded
conditions at local night in high latitudes. Mostly normal HF
propagation conditions are expected on 19-Nov, with a chance
of mild degradations at local night due to anticipated geomagnetic
activity from a coronal hole high speed wind stream.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
16 Nov 95
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct 83
Nov 70
Dec 70
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
17 Nov 85 Near predicted monthly values
18 Nov 80 Near predicted monthly values
19 Nov 70 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 87 was issued on
15 November and is current for 15-17 Nov. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) on UT day 16-Nov were generally near predicted monthly
values, with enhancements of 15% in the Australian region and
enhancements of 25% at Cocos Islands during local day. Sporadic-E
was observed at most sites during local night hours. MUFs are
expected to be near predicted monthly values to mildly enhanced
over 17-18 Nov. There is a possibility of 15% depressions by
the end of 19-Nov in the southern Australian regions due to anticipated
geomagnetic activity from coronal hole high speed wind streams.
Isolated shortwave fadeouts are possible on 17-Nov.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 15 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.9E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 3.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.00E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.2
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Nov
Speed: 411 km/sec Density: 4.0 p/cc Temp: 109000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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