[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 15 November 22 issued 2330 UT on 15 Nov 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Nov 16 10:30:53 EST 2022
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/15 NOVEMBER 2022
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 16 NOVEMBER - 18 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Nov: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1/-- 0251UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Nov: 134/88
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
16 Nov 17 Nov 18 Nov
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 130/84 126/79 120/72
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 15-Nov was at the R1 level,
due to an isolated M1 flare from solar region AR3140(N23W74,
beta). This region is the largest on disk and is now approaching
the solar northwest limb and also produced several C class flares,
the largest a C8.9 at 15/0555UT. A near simultaneous solar flare
was evident in GOES304 imagery on the southeast limb near S08.
Small solar region AR3146(N33E06, beta) showed decay in its leader
spots. Solar region AR3141(N14W66, beta) continued to show slight
decay. Solar region 3145(N26W59, beta) showed both minor growth
and minor decay. There are currently four numbered sunspot regions
visible on the solar disk. No Earth directed CMEs have been observed.
A faint narrow westward directed CME was observed in LASCO C2
from 15/0500UT which is considered insignificant. Solar activity
is expected to be at R0-R1 levels over 16-18 Nov, with a chance
for an isolated R2 event 16-17 Nov, before AR3140 rotates off
disk. A moderately large coronal hole is visible in the southeast
solar quadrant. The solar wind speed on UT day 15-Nov showed
a declining trend from 445 to 378km/s, and is currently near
390 km/s. The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF,
Bt) was 5 nT, and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was
+5 to -4. The 27 day solar wind patterns suggest the solar wind
may moderately increase over 16-17 Nov, then decline.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Nov: G0
Estimated Indices 15 Nov : A K
Australian Region 2 21101011
Cocos Island 1 11010000
Darwin 2 21101011
Townsville 3 11101022
Learmonth 3 22111001
Alice Springs 2 21100001
Gingin 2 21111001
Canberra 1 11100011
Hobart 2 11100111
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 15 Nov :
Macquarie Island 1 10101010
Casey 16 44531112
Mawson 7 23212113
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 Nov :
Darwin 3 (Quiet)
Townsville 3 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Hobart 22 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 3 0012 1011
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
16 Nov 10 G0
17 Nov 18 G0, chance G1
18 Nov 12 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on 15-Nov. Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed
in the Antarctic region, with an isolated period of G1 observed
at Casey. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected for 16 Nov,
with the chance of isolated G1 periods during the second half
of the UT day on 17-Nov due to glancing blow from a recent CME.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Nov Normal Normal Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
17 Nov Normal Normal-fair Fair
18 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
for 16 Nov, with degraded HF conditions possible second half
of UT day 17-Nov for middle to high latitudes, during local night
hours. Isolated shortwave fadeouts are possible during 16-17
Nov.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
15 Nov 89
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 35% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct 83
Nov 70
Dec 70
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
16 Nov 85 Near predicted monthly values
17 Nov 85 Near predicted monthly values
18 Nov 85 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 87 was issued on
15 November and is current for 15-17 Nov. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) on UT day 15-Nov were generally near predicted monthly
values, with enhancements of up to 35% observed at Cocos Island
during the local day. MUFs are expected to remain near predicted
monthly values over 16-18 Nov, with degraded conditions possible
local night hours 17-Nov for the southern Australian region.
Isolated shortwave fadeouts are possible 16-17 Nov.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 14 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.5E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 3.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.90E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Nov
Speed: 442 km/sec Density: 4.4 p/cc Temp: 159000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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