[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 14 November 22 issued 2330 UT on 14 Nov 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Nov 15 10:30:56 EST 2022


SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/14 NOVEMBER 2022
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 15 NOVEMBER - 17 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Nov:  R0

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Nov: 142/96


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             15 Nov             16 Nov             17 Nov
Activity     R0-R1              R0-R1              R0-R1
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   142/96             138/92             132/86

COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 14-Nov was at the R0 level, 
with several C-class flares. There are currently four numbered 
sunspot regions visible on the solar disk. Small solar region 
AR3145 (N25W48, alpha) produced a small optical flare with a 
dark surge on the solar disk observed in Learmonth GONG H-alpha 
imagery at 14/0307UT. This was followed by a relatively narrow 
westward CME in LASCO C2 at 14/0324UT. Event modelling suggests 
a glancing blow on the Earth's magnetosphere is possible around 
mid 17-Nov. Solar region AR3140 (N26W61, beta-gamma) produced 
several C class X-ray flares, the largest a C7.4 at 14/1340UT, 
and exhibited intermediate spot development. Solar region AR3141(N14W52, 
beta) showed decline. Solar activity is expected to be at R0-R1 
levels over 15-17 Nov. A moderately large coronal hole is visible 
in the southeast solar quadrant and small coronal holes are visible 
in the northwest and southwest solar quadrants. The solar wind 
speed on UT day 14-Nov showed a slight declining trend from 514 
to 416 km/s, and is currently near 425 km/s. The peak total interplanetary 
field strength (IMF, Bt) was 7 nT, and the north-south IMF component 
(Bz) range was +6 to -5. The 27 day solar wind patterns suggest 
the solar wind speed will continue to decline on 15-Nov, then 
moderately increase on 16-Nov.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Nov: G0

Estimated Indices 14 Nov : A   K           
   Australian Region       3   11210121
      Cocos Island         3   11210120
      Darwin               3   11211111
      Townsville           5   21221121
      Learmonth            5   21221121
      Alice Springs        3   11220110
      Gingin               4   11210131
      Canberra             2   10210110
      Hobart               2   10210111    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 14 Nov :
      Macquarie Island     2   10210010
      Casey               19   54522222
      Mawson              12   22323341

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 Nov : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              5   1201 2211     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
15 Nov    10    G0
16 Nov    12    G0
17 Nov    18    G0, chance G1

COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian 
region on 14-Nov. Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed 
in the Antarctic region, with an periods of G1 observed at Casey. 
G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected over 15-16 Nov, with G1 
conditions possible second half of the UT day on 17-Nov due to 
glancing blow from a recent CME.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
14 Nov      Normal         Normal         Fair-normal    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
15 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
16 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
17 Nov      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected 
over 15-16 Nov, with degraded HF conditions possible second half 
of UT day 17-Nov for middle to high latitudes, during local night 
hours. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
14 Nov    93

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 35% during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Oct      83
Nov      70
Dec      70

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
15 Nov    85    Near predicted monthly values
16 Nov    85    Near predicted monthly values
17 Nov    85    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 14-Nov were 
generally near predicted monthly values to 15-30% enhanced. MUFs 
are expected to be near predicted monthly values over 15-17 Nov, 
with degraded conditions possible local night hours 17-Nov for 
the southern Australian region. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 13 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.3E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  3.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.40E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B6.9

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Nov
Speed: 458 km/sec  Density:    4.9 p/cc  Temp:   142000 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au



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