[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 14 November 22 issued 2330 UT on 14 Nov 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Nov 15 10:30:56 EST 2022
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/14 NOVEMBER 2022
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 15 NOVEMBER - 17 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Nov: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Nov: 142/96
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
15 Nov 16 Nov 17 Nov
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 142/96 138/92 132/86
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 14-Nov was at the R0 level,
with several C-class flares. There are currently four numbered
sunspot regions visible on the solar disk. Small solar region
AR3145 (N25W48, alpha) produced a small optical flare with a
dark surge on the solar disk observed in Learmonth GONG H-alpha
imagery at 14/0307UT. This was followed by a relatively narrow
westward CME in LASCO C2 at 14/0324UT. Event modelling suggests
a glancing blow on the Earth's magnetosphere is possible around
mid 17-Nov. Solar region AR3140 (N26W61, beta-gamma) produced
several C class X-ray flares, the largest a C7.4 at 14/1340UT,
and exhibited intermediate spot development. Solar region AR3141(N14W52,
beta) showed decline. Solar activity is expected to be at R0-R1
levels over 15-17 Nov. A moderately large coronal hole is visible
in the southeast solar quadrant and small coronal holes are visible
in the northwest and southwest solar quadrants. The solar wind
speed on UT day 14-Nov showed a slight declining trend from 514
to 416 km/s, and is currently near 425 km/s. The peak total interplanetary
field strength (IMF, Bt) was 7 nT, and the north-south IMF component
(Bz) range was +6 to -5. The 27 day solar wind patterns suggest
the solar wind speed will continue to decline on 15-Nov, then
moderately increase on 16-Nov.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Nov: G0
Estimated Indices 14 Nov : A K
Australian Region 3 11210121
Cocos Island 3 11210120
Darwin 3 11211111
Townsville 5 21221121
Learmonth 5 21221121
Alice Springs 3 11220110
Gingin 4 11210131
Canberra 2 10210110
Hobart 2 10210111
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 14 Nov :
Macquarie Island 2 10210010
Casey 19 54522222
Mawson 12 22323341
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 5 1201 2211
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
15 Nov 10 G0
16 Nov 12 G0
17 Nov 18 G0, chance G1
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on 14-Nov. Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed
in the Antarctic region, with an periods of G1 observed at Casey.
G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected over 15-16 Nov, with G1
conditions possible second half of the UT day on 17-Nov due to
glancing blow from a recent CME.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Nov Normal Normal Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
16 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
17 Nov Normal Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
over 15-16 Nov, with degraded HF conditions possible second half
of UT day 17-Nov for middle to high latitudes, during local night
hours. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
14 Nov 93
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 35% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct 83
Nov 70
Dec 70
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
15 Nov 85 Near predicted monthly values
16 Nov 85 Near predicted monthly values
17 Nov 85 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 14-Nov were
generally near predicted monthly values to 15-30% enhanced. MUFs
are expected to be near predicted monthly values over 15-17 Nov,
with degraded conditions possible local night hours 17-Nov for
the southern Australian region. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 13 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.3E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 3.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.40E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B6.9
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Nov
Speed: 458 km/sec Density: 4.9 p/cc Temp: 142000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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