[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 13 November 22 issued 2331 UT on 13 Nov 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Nov 14 10:31:08 EST 2022
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/13 NOVEMBER 2022
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 14 NOVEMBER - 16 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Nov: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Nov: 137/91
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
14 Nov 15 Nov 16 Nov
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 135/89 135/89 120/72
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 13-Nov was at the R0 level,
with several C-class flares. There are currently four numbered
sunspot regions visible on the solar disk. AR3140 (N26W50, beta)
and AR3146 (N33E31, beta) have both exhibited spot development
over the 24-hour period. AR3141 (N14W39, beta) has decreased
in magnetic complexity and decayed. AR3145 (N25W35, beta) has
also decayed. Solar activity is expected to be at R0-R1 levels
over 14-16 Nov. Several CMEs were observed, but none are considered
geoeffective. The solar wind speed on UT day 13-Nov increased,
ranging from 430 to 530 km/s, and is currently near 525 km/s.
The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 7
nT, and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was +7 to -5.
The solar wind speed is expected to remain elevated over 14-16
Nov, possibly with an increasing trend due to a narrow coronal
hole rotating towards a geoeffective position.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Nov: G0
Estimated Indices 13 Nov : A K
Australian Region 8 13312311
Cocos Island 7 ----230-
Darwin 11 ----331-
Townsville 11 ----331-
Learmonth 11 ----331-
Alice Springs 9 -330231-
Gingin 11 ----331-
Canberra 8 -332121-
Hobart 6 12222311
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 13 Nov :
Macquarie Island 7 ----032-
Casey 9 ----322-
Mawson 13 1000354-
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 15 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 39 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 14 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 3 2210 0001
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
14 Nov 5 G0
15 Nov 10 G0
16 Nov 12 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on 13-Nov. Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed
in the Antarctic region, with an isolated period of G1 observed
at Mawson. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected over 14-16
Nov.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Nov Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Nov Normal Normal Normal
15 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
16 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
over 14-16 Nov. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
13 Nov 89
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct 83
Nov 70
Dec 70
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
14 Nov 85 Near predicted monthly values
15 Nov 85 Near predicted monthly values
16 Nov 85 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 86 was issued on
12 November and is current for 12-14 Nov. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) on UT day 13-Nov were near predicted monthly values to
15-30% enhanced in Northern Australia. MUFs are expected to be
near predicted monthly values over 14-16 Nov. Shortwave fadeouts
are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 12 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.1E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 3.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.90E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B5.3
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Nov
Speed: 465 km/sec Density: 7.9 p/cc Temp: 167000 K Bz: 4 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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