[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 12 November 22 issued 2331 UT on 12 Nov 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Nov 13 10:31:12 EST 2022
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/12 NOVEMBER 2022
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 13 NOVEMBER - 15 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Nov: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.1 0018UT possible lower West Pacific
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Nov: 138/92
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
13 Nov 14 Nov 15 Nov
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 140/94 130/84 125/78
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 12-Nov was at the R1 level,
due to a M1.1 flare at 12/0018UT from AR3141 (N14W26, beta-gamma).
There are currently three numbered sunspot regions and one unnumbered
region visible on the solar disk. AR3141 remains the largest
and most magnetically complex region and has shown decay in its
trailer spots. AR3140 (N26W37, beta) and AR3145 (N25W22, alpha)
have both exhibited spot development over the 24-hour period.
A new unnumbered region has appeared at N33E49 (alpha) and is
stable. Solar activity is expected to be at R0-R1 levels over
13-15 Nov. No Earth-directed CMEs have been observed. The solar
wind speed on UT day 12-Nov increased, ranging from 400 to 500
km/s, and is currently near 465 km/s. The peak total interplanetary
field strength (IMF, Bt) was 14 nT, and the north-south IMF component
(Bz) range was +10 to -8. The solar wind speed is expected to
remain mildly elevated over 13-15 Nov.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Nov: G0
Estimated Indices 12 Nov : A K
Australian Region 4 23210101
Cocos Island 4 22210---
Darwin 4 22210---
Townsville 6 32210---
Learmonth 8 33210---
Alice Springs 6 23210---
Gingin 8 33210---
Canberra 6 23210---
Hobart 5 23301101
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 12 Nov :
Macquarie Island 5 23110---
Casey 43 46641---
Mawson 17 35321---
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 7 (Quiet)
Hobart 24 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 8 1121 3323
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
13 Nov 5 G0
14 Nov 5 G0
15 Nov 10 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on 12-Nov. Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed
in the Antarctic region, with an isolated period of G1 observed
at Mawson and a period of G2 observed at Casey. G0 geomagnetic
conditions are expected over 13-15 Nov.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Nov Normal Normal-fair Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Nov Normal Normal Normal
14 Nov Normal Normal Normal
15 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
over 13-15 Nov. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
12 Nov 75
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct 83
Nov 70
Dec 70
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
13 Nov 80 Near predicted monthly values
14 Nov 80 Near predicted monthly values
15 Nov 80 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 86 was issued on
12 November and is current for 12-14 Nov. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) on UT day 12-Nov were near predicted monthly values to
15% depressed in Southern Australia. Sporadic E was observed
at Learmonth. MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly
values over 13-15 Nov. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 11 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 3.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.00E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B5.6
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Nov
Speed: 334 km/sec Density: 9.4 p/cc Temp: 54600 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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