[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 12 November 22 issued 2331 UT on 12 Nov 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Nov 13 10:31:12 EST 2022


SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/12 NOVEMBER 2022
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 13 NOVEMBER - 15 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Nov:  R1

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M1.1    0018UT  possible   lower  West Pacific

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Nov: 138/92


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             13 Nov             14 Nov             15 Nov
Activity     R0-R1              R0-R1              R0-R1
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   140/94             130/84             125/78

COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 12-Nov was at the R1 level, 
due to a M1.1 flare at 12/0018UT from AR3141 (N14W26, beta-gamma). 
There are currently three numbered sunspot regions and one unnumbered 
region visible on the solar disk. AR3141 remains the largest 
and most magnetically complex region and has shown decay in its 
trailer spots. AR3140 (N26W37, beta) and AR3145 (N25W22, alpha) 
have both exhibited spot development over the 24-hour period. 
A new unnumbered region has appeared at N33E49 (alpha) and is 
stable. Solar activity is expected to be at R0-R1 levels over 
13-15 Nov. No Earth-directed CMEs have been observed. The solar 
wind speed on UT day 12-Nov increased, ranging from 400 to 500 
km/s, and is currently near 465 km/s. The peak total interplanetary 
field strength (IMF, Bt) was 14 nT, and the north-south IMF component 
(Bz) range was +10 to -8. The solar wind speed is expected to 
remain mildly elevated over 13-15 Nov.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Nov: G0

Estimated Indices 12 Nov : A   K           
   Australian Region       4   23210101
      Cocos Island         4   22210---
      Darwin               4   22210---
      Townsville           6   32210---
      Learmonth            8   33210---
      Alice Springs        6   23210---
      Gingin               8   33210---
      Canberra             6   23210---
      Hobart               5   23301101    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 12 Nov :
      Macquarie Island     5   23110---
      Casey               43   46641---
      Mawson              17   35321---

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 Nov : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             7   (Quiet)
      Hobart              24   (Quiet to unsettled)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              6                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary              8   1121 3323     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
13 Nov     5    G0
14 Nov     5    G0
15 Nov    10    G0

COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian 
region on 12-Nov. Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed 
in the Antarctic region, with an isolated period of G1 observed 
at Mawson and a period of G2 observed at Casey. G0 geomagnetic 
conditions are expected over 13-15 Nov.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
12 Nov      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
13 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal
14 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal
15 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected 
over 13-15 Nov. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
12 Nov    75

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Oct      83
Nov      70
Dec      70

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
13 Nov    80    Near predicted monthly values
14 Nov    80    Near predicted monthly values
15 Nov    80    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 86 was issued on 
12 November and is current for 12-14 Nov. Maximum usable frequencies 
(MUFs) on UT day 12-Nov were near predicted monthly values to 
15% depressed in Southern Australia. Sporadic E was observed 
at Learmonth. MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly 
values over 13-15 Nov. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 11 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.5E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  3.0E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.00E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B5.6

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Nov
Speed: 334 km/sec  Density:    9.4 p/cc  Temp:    54600 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au



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