[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 11 November 22 issued 2330 UT on 11 Nov 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Nov 12 10:30:56 EST 2022


SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/11 NOVEMBER 2022
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 12 NOVEMBER - 14 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Nov:  R1

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M1.2    0714UT  possible   lower  Mid East/Indian
  M1.2    1140UT  possible   lower  European

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Nov: 138/92


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             12 Nov             13 Nov             14 Nov
Activity     R0-R1              R0-R1              R0-R1
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   140/94             140/94             130/84

COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 11-Nov was at the R1 level, 
due to a M1.2 flare at 11/0714UT and an additional M1.2 flare 
at 11/1140UT. Both flares originated from AR3141 (N14W12, beta-gamma). 
There are currently three numbered sunspot regions visible on 
the solar disk. AR3141 is the most magnetically complex region 
and has shown some minor decay in its trailer spots. AR3140 (N26W23, 
beta) has shown growth in its trailer spots over the 24-hour 
period. AR3145 (N25W08, alpha) has decayed. Solar activity is 
expected to be at R0-R1 levels over 12-14 Nov. A low velocity 
west-directed CME was observed, visible in LASCO C2 coronagraph 
imagery from 11/0924UT. Model runs indicate this CME is not geoeffective. 
Several other CMEs were observed, but none are considered geoeffective. 
The solar wind speed on UT day 11-Nov increased, ranging from 
300 to 440 km/s, and is currently near 415 km/s. The peak total 
interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 14 nT, and the north-south 
IMF component (Bz) range was +12 to -10. A period of sustained 
southward IMF conditions was observed from 11/0305UT to 11/1000UT. 
The solar wind speed is expected to remain mildly elevated over 
12-14 Nov.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Nov: G0

Estimated Indices 11 Nov : A   K           
   Australian Region       7   12222223
      Cocos Island         5   12112212
      Darwin               7   12212223
      Townsville           7   12222223
      Learmonth            7   12222223
      Alice Springs        7   12222223
      Gingin               8   11222323
      Canberra             6   01212223
      Hobart               6   02212223    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 11 Nov :
      Macquarie Island    16   02533423
      Casey               16   34422234
      Mawson              14   22333334

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 Nov : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary             12                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              1   0000 0011     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
12 Nov     8    G0
13 Nov     5    G0
14 Nov     5    G0

COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian 
region on 11-Nov. Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed 
in the Antarctic region, with an isolated period of G1 observed 
at Macquarie Island. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected over 
12-14 Nov.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
11 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
12 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
13 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal
14 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected 
over 12-14 Nov. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
11 Nov   118

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 35% during local day.
      Enhanced by 50% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Oct      83
Nov      70
Dec      70

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
12 Nov   100    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
13 Nov   100    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
14 Nov   100    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values

COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 85 was issued on 
9 November and is current for 10-12 Nov. Maximum usable frequencies 
(MUFs) on UT day 11-Nov were enhanced by 15-20%. Spread F was 
observed at Hobart during local night. MUFs are expected to be 
near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced over 12-14 Nov. 
Shortwave fadeouts are possible.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 10 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.8E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  3.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.00E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 7%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B5.0

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Nov
Speed: 318 km/sec  Density:    4.0 p/cc  Temp:    11000 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au



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