[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 11 November 22 issued 2330 UT on 11 Nov 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Nov 12 10:30:56 EST 2022
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/11 NOVEMBER 2022
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 12 NOVEMBER - 14 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Nov: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.2 0714UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
M1.2 1140UT possible lower European
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Nov: 138/92
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
12 Nov 13 Nov 14 Nov
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 140/94 140/94 130/84
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 11-Nov was at the R1 level,
due to a M1.2 flare at 11/0714UT and an additional M1.2 flare
at 11/1140UT. Both flares originated from AR3141 (N14W12, beta-gamma).
There are currently three numbered sunspot regions visible on
the solar disk. AR3141 is the most magnetically complex region
and has shown some minor decay in its trailer spots. AR3140 (N26W23,
beta) has shown growth in its trailer spots over the 24-hour
period. AR3145 (N25W08, alpha) has decayed. Solar activity is
expected to be at R0-R1 levels over 12-14 Nov. A low velocity
west-directed CME was observed, visible in LASCO C2 coronagraph
imagery from 11/0924UT. Model runs indicate this CME is not geoeffective.
Several other CMEs were observed, but none are considered geoeffective.
The solar wind speed on UT day 11-Nov increased, ranging from
300 to 440 km/s, and is currently near 415 km/s. The peak total
interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 14 nT, and the north-south
IMF component (Bz) range was +12 to -10. A period of sustained
southward IMF conditions was observed from 11/0305UT to 11/1000UT.
The solar wind speed is expected to remain mildly elevated over
12-14 Nov.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Nov: G0
Estimated Indices 11 Nov : A K
Australian Region 7 12222223
Cocos Island 5 12112212
Darwin 7 12212223
Townsville 7 12222223
Learmonth 7 12222223
Alice Springs 7 12222223
Gingin 8 11222323
Canberra 6 01212223
Hobart 6 02212223
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 11 Nov :
Macquarie Island 16 02533423
Casey 16 34422234
Mawson 14 22333334
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 1 0000 0011
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
12 Nov 8 G0
13 Nov 5 G0
14 Nov 5 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on 11-Nov. Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed
in the Antarctic region, with an isolated period of G1 observed
at Macquarie Island. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected over
12-14 Nov.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Nov Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
13 Nov Normal Normal Normal
14 Nov Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
over 12-14 Nov. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
11 Nov 118
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 35% during local day.
Enhanced by 50% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct 83
Nov 70
Dec 70
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
12 Nov 100 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
13 Nov 100 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
14 Nov 100 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 85 was issued on
9 November and is current for 10-12 Nov. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) on UT day 11-Nov were enhanced by 15-20%. Spread F was
observed at Hobart during local night. MUFs are expected to be
near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced over 12-14 Nov.
Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 10 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.8E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 3.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.00E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 7%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B5.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Nov
Speed: 318 km/sec Density: 4.0 p/cc Temp: 11000 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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