[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 10 November 22 issued 2330 UT on 10 Nov 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Nov 11 10:30:56 EST 2022
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/10 NOVEMBER 2022
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 11 NOVEMBER - 13 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Nov: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Nov: 139/93
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
11 Nov 12 Nov 13 Nov
Activity R0-R1 chance of R2 R0-R1 chance of R2 R0-R1 chance of R2
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 140/94 140/94 140/94
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 10-Nov was at the R0 level
with several C-class flares. There are currently four numbered
sunspot regions visible on the solar disk. AR3141 (N14E01, beta-gamma-delta)
remains the largest region on the disk, has increased in magnetic
complexity and exhibited spot development over the 24 hour period.
AR3140 (N26W10, beta) and AR3145 (N25E05, beta) also exhibited
spot development over the 24 hour period. AR3144 (S25W30, alpha)
is in decay. Solar activity is expected to be at the R0-R1 level
over 11-13 Nov, with a slight chance of R2. No Earth-directed
CMEs have been observed. The solar wind speed on UT day 10-Nov
was mild, ranging from 302 to 345 km/s, and is currently near
320 km/s. The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF,
Bt) was 7 nT, and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was
+5 to -2. The solar wind speed is expected to remain mild over
11-13 Nov.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Nov: G0
Estimated Indices 10 Nov : A K
Australian Region 1 11000011
Cocos Island 1 01100010
Darwin 1 10110011
Townsville 2 21110011
Learmonth 2 01010012
Alice Springs 1 10000011
Gingin 0 01000001
Canberra 0 00000011
Hobart 0 00000000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 10 Nov :
Macquarie Island 0 00000000
Casey 7 24210112
Mawson 3 31010011
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 7 2432 1101
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
11 Nov 5 G0
12 Nov 5 G0
13 Nov 5 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
and Antarctic regions on 10-Nov. G0 geomagnetic conditions are
expected over 11-13 Nov.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Nov Normal Normal Normal
12 Nov Normal Normal Normal
13 Nov Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
over 11-13 Nov. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
10 Nov 90
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct 83
Nov 70
Dec 70
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
11 Nov 85 Near predicted monthly values
12 Nov 85 Near predicted monthly values
13 Nov 85 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 85 was issued on
9 November and is current for 10-12 Nov. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) on UT day 10-Nov were near predicted monthly values. Spread
F was observed at Hobart during local night. Sporadic E was observed
at Norfolk Island during local evening. MUFs are expected to
be near predicted monthly values over 11-13 Nov. Shortwave fadeouts
are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 09 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.5E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 3.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.3
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Nov
Speed: 346 km/sec Density: 1.8 p/cc Temp: 18800 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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