[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 10 November 22 issued 2330 UT on 10 Nov 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Nov 11 10:30:56 EST 2022


SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/10 NOVEMBER 2022
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 11 NOVEMBER - 13 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Nov:  R0

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Nov: 139/93


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             11 Nov             12 Nov             13 Nov
Activity     R0-R1 chance of R2 R0-R1 chance of R2 R0-R1 chance of R2
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   140/94             140/94             140/94

COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 10-Nov was at the R0 level 
with several C-class flares. There are currently four numbered 
sunspot regions visible on the solar disk. AR3141 (N14E01, beta-gamma-delta) 
remains the largest region on the disk, has increased in magnetic 
complexity and exhibited spot development over the 24 hour period. 
AR3140 (N26W10, beta) and AR3145 (N25E05, beta) also exhibited 
spot development over the 24 hour period. AR3144 (S25W30, alpha) 
is in decay. Solar activity is expected to be at the R0-R1 level 
over 11-13 Nov, with a slight chance of R2. No Earth-directed 
CMEs have been observed. The solar wind speed on UT day 10-Nov 
was mild, ranging from 302 to 345 km/s, and is currently near 
320 km/s. The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF, 
Bt) was 7 nT, and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was 
+5 to -2. The solar wind speed is expected to remain mild over 
11-13 Nov.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Nov: G0

Estimated Indices 10 Nov : A   K           
   Australian Region       1   11000011
      Cocos Island         1   01100010
      Darwin               1   10110011
      Townsville           2   21110011
      Learmonth            2   01010012
      Alice Springs        1   10000011
      Gingin               0   01000001
      Canberra             0   00000011
      Hobart               0   00000000    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 10 Nov :
      Macquarie Island     0   00000000
      Casey                7   24210112
      Mawson               3   31010011

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 Nov : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg        11
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              7   2432 1101     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
11 Nov     5    G0
12 Nov     5    G0
13 Nov     5    G0

COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian 
and Antarctic regions on 10-Nov. G0 geomagnetic conditions are 
expected over 11-13 Nov.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
10 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
11 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal
12 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal
13 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected 
over 11-13 Nov. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
10 Nov    90

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Oct      83
Nov      70
Dec      70

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
11 Nov    85    Near predicted monthly values
12 Nov    85    Near predicted monthly values
13 Nov    85    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 85 was issued on 
9 November and is current for 10-12 Nov. Maximum usable frequencies 
(MUFs) on UT day 10-Nov were near predicted monthly values. Spread 
F was observed at Hobart during local night. Sporadic E was observed 
at Norfolk Island during local evening. MUFs are expected to 
be near predicted monthly values over 11-13 Nov. Shortwave fadeouts 
are possible.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 09 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.5E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  3.0E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B4.3

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Nov
Speed: 346 km/sec  Density:    1.8 p/cc  Temp:    18800 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au



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