[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 09 November 22 issued 2330 UT on 09 Nov 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Nov 10 10:30:54 EST 2022
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/09 NOVEMBER 2022
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 10 NOVEMBER - 12 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Nov: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Nov: 138/92
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
10 Nov 11 Nov 12 Nov
Activity R0-R1 chance of R2 R0-R1 chance of R2 R0-R1 chance of R2
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 135/89 135/89 140/94
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 9-Nov was at the R0 level with
several C-class flares. The largest of which was a C4.3 flare
at 9/2005UT originating at AR3140 (N26E02, beta). There are currently
five numbered sunspot regions visible on the solar disk and one
unnumbered region. AR3141 (N14E14, beta-gamma) remains the largest
region on the disk and has shown growth in its trailer spots.
A new unnumbered region recently appeared at S17E18 (alpha) and
is stable. All other sunspot regions are either stable or in
decay. Solar activity is expected to be at the R0-R1 level over
10-12 Nov, with a slight chance of R2. No Earth-directed CMEs
have been observed. The solar wind speed on UT day 9-Nov was
mild, ranging from 315 to 394 km/s, and is currently near 335
km/s. The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt)
was 7 nT, and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was +3
to -5. A period of sustained southward IMF conditions was observed
from 9/0000UT to 9/0715UT. The solar wind speed is expected to
remain mild over 10-12 Nov.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Nov: G0
Estimated Indices 09 Nov : A K
Australian Region 2 11210001
Cocos Island 1 11110000
Darwin 2 11210011
Townsville 3 11211011
Learmonth 1 11110001
Alice Springs 1 01110001
Gingin 1 11110000
Canberra 2 01211001
Hobart 3 12221000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 09 Nov :
Macquarie Island 5 13322000
Casey 7 33322001
Mawson 11 44322111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 12 2334 3212
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
10 Nov 5 G0
11 Nov 8 G0
12 Nov 8 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
and Antarctic regions on 9-Nov. G0 geomagnetic conditions are
expected over 10-12 Nov.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Nov Normal Normal Normal
11 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
12 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
over 10-12 Nov. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
09 Nov 78
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 40% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 35% during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct 83
Nov 70
Dec 70
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
10 Nov 75 Near predicted monthly values
11 Nov 75 Near predicted monthly values
12 Nov 75 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 9-Nov were
depressed by up to 25% during local day in the Australian region.
Spread F was observed at Hobart during local night hours. Sporadic
E was observed at Cocos Islands, Learmonth and Perth. MUFs are
expected to be near predicted monthly values over 10-12 Nov.
Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 08 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.5E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 3.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.50E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.3
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 Nov
Speed: 378 km/sec Density: 1.4 p/cc Temp: 79900 K Bz: -5 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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