[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 08 November 22 issued 2330 UT on 08 Nov 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Nov 9 10:30:57 EST 2022
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/08 NOVEMBER 2022
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 09 NOVEMBER - 11 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Nov: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Nov: 132/86
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
09 Nov 10 Nov 11 Nov
Activity R0, slight chance R1 R0, slight chance R1 R0, slight chance R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 130/84 130/84 130/84
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 08-Nov was at the R0 level,
with a single low level C-class flare only. There are currently
six numbered sunspot regions visible on the solar disk and one
unnumbered region. AR3141 (N14E27, beta) remains the largest
region on the disk and has shown decay in its trailer spots.
AR3135 (N28W72, alpha) will soon rotate over the western limb
and is stable. A new unnumbered region recently appeared at S25W03
(alpha) and has since decayed. All other sunspot regions are
either stable or in decay. Solar activity is expected to be at
the R0 level over 09-11 Nov, with a slight chance of R1. No Earth-directed
CMEs have been observed. The solar wind speed on UT day 08-Nov
declined, ranging from 350 to 435 km/s, and is currently near
355 km/s. The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF,
Bt) was 12 nT, and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was
+4 to -9. A period of sustained southward IMF conditions was
observed from 08/0605UT and is still ongoing. The solar wind
speed may increase over 09-11 Nov due to a pair of coronal holes
in the southern hemisphere.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Nov: G0
Estimated Indices 08 Nov : A K
Australian Region 5 12222111
Cocos Island 2 11211100
Darwin 5 11222112
Townsville 5 12222112
Learmonth 6 12222212
Alice Springs 5 12222111
Gingin 6 12222222
Canberra 4 12222011
Hobart 7 12323111
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 08 Nov :
Macquarie Island 17 24345310
Casey 11 44322111
Mawson 26 45433444
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 17
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
09 Nov 10 G0
10 Nov 12 G0
11 Nov 8 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on 08-Nov. Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed
in the Antarctic region, with isolated periods of G1 observed
at Mawson and Macquarie Island. G0 geomagnetic conditions are
expected over 09-11 Nov.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Nov Normal Normal-fair Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
10 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
11 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
over 09-11 Nov.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
08 Nov 75
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day.
Enhanced by 20-45% during local night and after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 20% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct 83
Nov 70
Dec 70
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
09 Nov 70 Near predicted monthly values
10 Nov 70 Near predicted monthly values
11 Nov 70 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 84 was issued on
7 November and is current for 7-9 Nov. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) on UT day 08-Nov were enhanced by up to 25% in Northern
Australia during local night and 15-25% depressed in Southern
Australia. Spread F was observed at Hobart during local night
hours. MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly values
over 09-11 Nov.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 07 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.1E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 3.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.80E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:18%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B6.4
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 Nov
Speed: 393 km/sec Density: 11.2 p/cc Temp: 25900 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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