[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 08 November 22 issued 2330 UT on 08 Nov 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Nov 9 10:30:57 EST 2022


SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/08 NOVEMBER 2022
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 09 NOVEMBER - 11 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Nov:  R0

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Nov: 132/86


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             09 Nov               10 Nov               11 Nov
Activity     R0, slight chance R1 R0, slight chance R1 R0, slight chance R1
Fadeouts     Possible             Possible             Possible
10.7cm/SSN   130/84               130/84               130/84

COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 08-Nov was at the R0 level, 
with a single low level C-class flare only. There are currently 
six numbered sunspot regions visible on the solar disk and one 
unnumbered region. AR3141 (N14E27, beta) remains the largest 
region on the disk and has shown decay in its trailer spots. 
AR3135 (N28W72, alpha) will soon rotate over the western limb 
and is stable. A new unnumbered region recently appeared at S25W03 
(alpha) and has since decayed. All other sunspot regions are 
either stable or in decay. Solar activity is expected to be at 
the R0 level over 09-11 Nov, with a slight chance of R1. No Earth-directed 
CMEs have been observed. The solar wind speed on UT day 08-Nov 
declined, ranging from 350 to 435 km/s, and is currently near 
355 km/s. The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF, 
Bt) was 12 nT, and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was 
+4 to -9. A period of sustained southward IMF conditions was 
observed from 08/0605UT and is still ongoing. The solar wind 
speed may increase over 09-11 Nov due to a pair of coronal holes 
in the southern hemisphere.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Nov: G0

Estimated Indices 08 Nov : A   K           
   Australian Region       5   12222111
      Cocos Island         2   11211100
      Darwin               5   11222112
      Townsville           5   12222112
      Learmonth            6   12222212
      Alice Springs        5   12222111
      Gingin               6   12222222
      Canberra             4   12222011
      Hobart               7   12323111    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 08 Nov :
      Macquarie Island    17   24345310
      Casey               11   44322111
      Mawson              26   45433444

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 Nov : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg        11
           Planetary             12                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             17        


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
09 Nov    10    G0
10 Nov    12    G0
11 Nov     8    G0

COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian 
region on 08-Nov. Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed 
in the Antarctic region, with isolated periods of G1 observed 
at Mawson and Macquarie Island. G0 geomagnetic conditions are 
expected over 09-11 Nov.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
08 Nov      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair           

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
09 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
10 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
11 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected 
over 09-11 Nov.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
08 Nov    75

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 30% during local day.
      Enhanced by 20-45% during local night and after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 20% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Oct      83
Nov      70
Dec      70

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
09 Nov    70    Near predicted monthly values
10 Nov    70    Near predicted monthly values
11 Nov    70    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 84 was issued on 
7 November and is current for 7-9 Nov. Maximum usable frequencies 
(MUFs) on UT day 08-Nov were enhanced by up to 25% in Northern 
Australia during local night and 15-25% depressed in Southern 
Australia. Spread F was observed at Hobart during local night 
hours. MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly values 
over 09-11 Nov.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 07 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.1E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  3.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.80E+08   (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:18%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B6.4

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 Nov
Speed: 393 km/sec  Density:   11.2 p/cc  Temp:    25900 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au



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