[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 07 November 22 issued 2331 UT on 07 Nov 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Nov 8 10:31:21 EST 2022
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/07 NOVEMBER 2022
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 08 NOVEMBER - 10 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Nov: R2
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M5.2 0011UT possible lower West Pacific
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Nov: 135/89
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
08 Nov 09 Nov 10 Nov
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 135/89 130/84 130/84
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 07-Nov was at the R2 level,
due to a single M5.2 flare from AR3141 (N14E40, beta) at 07/0011UT.
There are currently six numbered sunspot regions visible on the
solar disk and two unnumbered regions. AR3141 is the largest
sunspot region and is stable. AR3142 (N26E07, beta) has exhibited
spot development over the 24-hour period. An unnumbered region
has recently appeared at S14E60 (beta) and has shown minor decay.
An additional unnumbered region is visible at S22E09 (alpha)
and has shown minor growth. All other sunspot regions are either
stable or in decay. Solar activity is expected to be at R0-R1
levels over 08-10 Nov. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed.
The solar wind speed on UT day 07-Nov was stable, ranging from
390 to 430 km/s, and is currently near 400 km/s. The peak total
interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 16 nT, and the north-south
IMF component (Bz) range was +10 to -15. A period of sustained
southward IMF conditions was observed from 07/0922UT to 07/1730UT.
The solar wind speed is expected to decline on 08-Nov, then possibly
increase over 09-10 Nov due to a pair of coronal holes in the
southern hemisphere.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Nov: G1
Estimated Indices 07 Nov : A K
Australian Region 14 22234342
Cocos Island 11 12233341
Darwin 12 22234332
Townsville 14 32334332
Learmonth 19 22335442
Alice Springs 15 22235332
Gingin 14 22234342
Canberra 12 22234332
Hobart 16 13234442
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 07 Nov :
Macquarie Island 47 12156763
Casey 26 46433333
Mawson 21 23244543
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 6 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 16
Planetary 22
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 3 1111 0101
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
08 Nov 8 G0
09 Nov 10 G0
10 Nov 12 G0
COMMENT: Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the
Australian region on 07-Nov, with isolated periods of G1 observed
at Learmonth and Alice Springs. Mostly G0-G2 geomagnetic conditions
were observed in the Antarctic region, with an isolated period
of G3 observed at Macquarie Island. G0 geomagnetic conditions
are expected over 08-10 Nov.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Nov Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
09 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
10 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
over 08-10 Nov. Mildly degraded conditions are possible on 09-10
Nov, particularly at high latitudes due to coronal hole high
speed wind stream effects. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
07 Nov 95
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct 83
Nov 70
Dec 70
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
08 Nov 85 Near predicted monthly values
09 Nov 85 Near predicted monthly values
10 Nov 85 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 84 was issued on
7 November and is current for 7-9 Nov. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) on UT day 07-Nov were enhanced by up to 25% in Northern
Australia during local night and near predicted monthly values
in Southern Australia. A shortwave fadeout associated with the M
5.2 flare was observed from 07/0005UT to 07/0021UT.Spread F was
observed at Hobart during local night hours. Sporadic E was observed
at Brisbane. MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly values
over 08-10 Nov. Mild degradations are possible over 09-10 Nov due
to coronal hole high speed wind stream effects. Shortwave fadeouts
are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 06 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.3E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 3.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.00E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:23%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B5.7
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Nov
Speed: 419 km/sec Density: 3.7 p/cc Temp: 114000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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