[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 06 November 22 issued 2331 UT on 06 Nov 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Nov 7 10:31:18 EST 2022
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/06 NOVEMBER 2022
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 07 NOVEMBER - 09 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Nov: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Nov: 131/85
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
07 Nov 08 Nov 09 Nov
Activity R0 slight chance R1R0 slight chance R1R0 slight chance R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 130/84 130/84 125/78
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 6-Nov was at the R0 level with
several C-class flares. The largest flare was a C3.7 flare at
6/1727UT originating from AR3141(N15E53, beta). There are currently
six numbered sunspot regions visible on the solar disk. AR3141
is the largest region and was responsible for all the flaring
over the UT day. All sunspot regions are either stable or in
decay. Solar activity is expected to be at the R0 level, with
a slight chance of R1 over 7-9 Nov. No geoeffective CMEs were
observed. Two solar filament liftoffs were observed in H-alpha
imagery. One from 6/1357UT at around S23W55 and one from 6/1529UT
at around N50W50. No associated CMEs are visible in available
imagery. The solar wind speed on UT day 6-Nov decreased, ranging
from 480 to 375 km/s, and is currently near 390 km/s. The peak
total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 4 nT, and the
north-south IMF component (Bz) range was +3 to -3 nT. The solar
wind speed is expected to continue to decline over 7-8 Nov as
coronal hole high speed wind stream effects wane. There is a
possibility of an increase on 9-Nov due to high speed wind stream
effects from a pair of coronal holes in the southern hemisphere,
which are rotating towards a geoeffective location.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Nov: G0
Estimated Indices 06 Nov : A K
Australian Region 1 11000001
Cocos Island 0 11000000
Darwin 1 11000001
Townsville 2 11110012
Learmonth 1 20000001
Alice Springs 0 10000001
Gingin 1 20000001
Canberra 0 00100001
Hobart 1 01110001
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 06 Nov :
Macquarie Island 1 00120001
Casey 9 34321012
Mawson 8 21212214
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 9 3323 2211
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
07 Nov 5 G0
08 Nov 5 G0
09 Nov 8 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
and Antarctic regions on 6-Nov. G0 geomagnetic conditions are
expected over 7-9 Nov.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Nov Normal Normal Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Nov Normal Normal Normal
08 Nov Normal Normal Normal
09 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
over 7-9 Nov, with mildly degraded conditions possible on 9-Nov,
particularly at high latitudes, due to high speed wind stream
effects from a coronal hole rotating towards a geoeffective location.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
06 Nov 84
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct 83
Nov 70
Dec 70
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
07 Nov 80 Near predicted monthly values
08 Nov 80 Near predicted monthly values
09 Nov 80 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 6-Nov were
enhanced by up to 30% in Northern Australia during local night
and depressed by up to 15% in Southern Australia during local
day. MUFs were near predicted monthly values at other times.
Spread F was observed at Hobart during local night hours. Sporadic
E was observed at Brisbane, Niue, Darwin and Canberra. MUFs are
expected to be near predicted monthly values over 7-9 Nov. With
mild depressions possible on 9-Nov due to high speed wind stream
effects from a coronal hole rotating towards a geoeffective position.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 05 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.0E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 3.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.70E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:20%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B5.1
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Nov
Speed: 503 km/sec Density: 8.1 p/cc Temp: 349000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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