[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 05 November 22 issued 2330 UT on 05 Nov 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Nov 6 10:30:57 EST 2022
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/05 NOVEMBER 2022
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 06 NOVEMBER - 08 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Nov: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Nov: 131/85
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
06 Nov 07 Nov 08 Nov
Activity R0 R0 R0
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 130/84 130/84 130/84
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 5-Nov was at the R0 level.
There are currently six numbered sunspot regions visible on the
solar disk and one unnumbered region. AR3141 (N15E64, beta) is
the largest region and was stable over the 24-hour period. AR3135
(N28E33, beta) displayed some trailer spot development. AR3131(N23W76,
beta) rotated off the solar disk over 5-Nov. All other sunspot
regions are either stable or in decay. The unnumbered region
is at N27W11 (beta) and appears stable. Solar activity is expected
to be at the R0 level over 6-8 Nov. No geoeffective CMEs were
observed. The solar wind speed on UT day 5-Nov decreased, ranging
from 548 to 453 km/s, and is currently near 480 km/s. The peak
total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 5 nT, and the
north-south IMF component (Bz) range was +2 to -5. The solar
wind speed is expected to continue to decline over 6-7 Nov as
coronal hole high speed wind stream effects wane. There is a
possibility of an increase on 8-Nov due to high speed wind stream
effects from a coronal hole in the southern hemisphere, which
is rotating towards a geoeffective location.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Nov: G0
Estimated Indices 05 Nov : A K
Australian Region 5 22222101
Cocos Island 2 11112100
Darwin 5 22222111
Townsville 5 22221111
Learmonth 6 22223101
Alice Springs 4 22222100
Gingin 4 21122101
Canberra 4 22222100
Hobart 5 12232200
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 05 Nov :
Macquarie Island 12 22353200
Casey 12 34431112
Mawson 16 34333224
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 11
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 14 4433 3222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
06 Nov 5 G0
07 Nov 5 G0
08 Nov 8 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on 5-Nov. Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed
in the Antarctic region on 5-Nov, with one isolated period of
G1 at Macquarie Island. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected
over 6-8 Nov.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Nov Fair Fair Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Nov Normal Normal Normal
07 Nov Normal Normal Normal
08 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
over 6-8 Nov, with mildly degraded conditions possible on 8-Nov
due to high speed wind stream effects from a coronal hole rotating
towards a geoeffective location.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
05 Nov 77
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct 83
Nov 70
Dec 70
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
06 Nov 75 Near predicted monthly values
07 Nov 75 Near predicted monthly values
08 Nov 70 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 5-Nov were
enhanced by up to 20% in Northern Australia during local night
and depressed by up to 20% in Southern Australia during local
day. MUFs were near predicted monthly values at other times.
Spread F was observed at Hobart during local night hours. Sporadic
E was observed at Brisbane. MUFs are expected to be near predicted
monthly values over 6-8 Nov. With mild depressions possible on
8-Nov due to high speed wind stream effects from a coronal hole
rotating towards a geoeffective position.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 04 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 3.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.10E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:16%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B5.6
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Nov
Speed: 555 km/sec Density: 10.7 p/cc Temp: 598000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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