[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 05 November 22 issued 2330 UT on 05 Nov 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Nov 6 10:30:57 EST 2022


SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/05 NOVEMBER 2022
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 06 NOVEMBER - 08 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Nov:  R0

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Nov: 131/85


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             06 Nov             07 Nov             08 Nov
Activity     R0                 R0                 R0
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   130/84             130/84             130/84

COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 5-Nov was at the R0 level. 
There are currently six numbered sunspot regions visible on the 
solar disk and one unnumbered region. AR3141 (N15E64, beta) is 
the largest region and was stable over the 24-hour period. AR3135 
(N28E33, beta) displayed some trailer spot development. AR3131(N23W76, 
beta) rotated off the solar disk over 5-Nov. All other sunspot 
regions are either stable or in decay. The unnumbered region 
is at N27W11 (beta) and appears stable. Solar activity is expected 
to be at the R0 level over 6-8 Nov. No geoeffective CMEs were 
observed. The solar wind speed on UT day 5-Nov decreased, ranging 
from 548 to 453 km/s, and is currently near 480 km/s. The peak 
total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 5 nT, and the 
north-south IMF component (Bz) range was +2 to -5. The solar 
wind speed is expected to continue to decline over 6-7 Nov as 
coronal hole high speed wind stream effects wane. There is a 
possibility of an increase on 8-Nov due to high speed wind stream 
effects from a coronal hole in the southern hemisphere, which 
is rotating towards a geoeffective location.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Nov: G0

Estimated Indices 05 Nov : A   K           
   Australian Region       5   22222101
      Cocos Island         2   11112100
      Darwin               5   22222111
      Townsville           5   22221111
      Learmonth            6   22223101
      Alice Springs        4   22222100
      Gingin               4   21122101
      Canberra             4   22222100
      Hobart               5   12232200    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 05 Nov :
      Macquarie Island    12   22353200
      Casey               12   34431112
      Mawson              16   34333224

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 Nov : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             11                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             14   4433 3222     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
06 Nov     5    G0
07 Nov     5    G0
08 Nov     8    G0

COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian 
region on 5-Nov. Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed 
in the Antarctic region on 5-Nov, with one isolated period of 
G1 at Macquarie Island. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected 
over 6-8 Nov.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
05 Nov      Fair           Fair           Fair           

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
06 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal
07 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal
08 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected 
over 6-8 Nov, with mildly degraded conditions possible on 8-Nov 
due to high speed wind stream effects from a coronal hole rotating 
towards a geoeffective location.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
05 Nov    77

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Oct      83
Nov      70
Dec      70

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
06 Nov    75    Near predicted monthly values
07 Nov    75    Near predicted monthly values
08 Nov    70    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 5-Nov were 
enhanced by up to 20% in Northern Australia during local night 
and depressed by up to 20% in Southern Australia during local 
day. MUFs were near predicted monthly values at other times. 
Spread F was observed at Hobart during local night hours. Sporadic 
E was observed at Brisbane. MUFs are expected to be near predicted 
monthly values over 6-8 Nov. With mild depressions possible on 
8-Nov due to high speed wind stream effects from a coronal hole 
rotating towards a geoeffective position.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 04 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.1E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  3.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.10E+08   (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:16%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B5.6

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Nov
Speed: 555 km/sec  Density:   10.7 p/cc  Temp:   598000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au



More information about the ips-dsgr mailing list