[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 04 November 22 issued 2330 UT on 04 Nov 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Nov 5 10:30:56 EST 2022
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/04 NOVEMBER 2022
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 05 NOVEMBER - 07 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Nov: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Nov: 118/70
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
05 Nov 06 Nov 07 Nov
Activity R0 R0 R0
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 120/72 125/78 125/78
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 04-Nov was at the R0 level,
with several C-class flares. There are currently six numbered
sunspot regions visible on the solar disk and one unnumbered
region. AR3137 (N39E33, beta-gamma) is the most magnetically
complex region and has shown some minor spot growth. All other
sunspot regions are either stable or in decay. A new unnumbered
region has recently rotated over the eastern limb at N16E78 (alpha)
and appears stable. Solar activity is expected to be at the R0
level over 05-07 Nov. A filament was observed lifting off the
solar disk in H-alpha imagery at S25E25 from 04/0122UT. A subsequent
southeast-directed CME was observed, visible in LASCO C2 coronagraph
imagery from 04/0248UT. This CME is not Earth-directed. Several
other CMEs were observed, but none are considered geoeffective.
The solar wind speed on UT day 04-Nov decreased, ranging from
510 to 610 km/s, and is currently near 510 km/s. The peak total
interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 8 nT, and the north-south
IMF component (Bz) range was +4 to -6. The solar wind speed is
expected to remain elevated over 05-07 Nov, with a declining
trend due to waning coronal hole effects.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Nov: G0
Estimated Indices 04 Nov : A K
Australian Region 9 23222322
Cocos Island 7 22222222
Darwin 7 23222212
Townsville 10 33222322
Learmonth 10 23322322
Alice Springs 8 23222312
Gingin 11 23323322
Canberra 8 33222221
Hobart 11 33332321
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 04 Nov :
Macquarie Island 18 33345321
Casey 21 55433222
Mawson 30 45444435
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 12 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 13
Planetary 16
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 16
Planetary 28 2134 5644
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
05 Nov 24 G0-G1
06 Nov 10 G0
07 Nov 6 G0
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 52 was issued on 3 November
and is current for 4-5 Nov. G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed
in the Australian region on 04-Nov. G0-G1 geomagnetic conditions
were observed in the Antarctic region. G0-G1 geomagnetic conditions
are expected on 05-Nov due to ongoing coronal hole high speed
wind stream effects. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected over
06-07 Nov.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Nov Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Nov Normal Normal-fair Fair
06 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
07 Nov Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
over 05-07 Nov, with mildly degraded conditions possible on 05-Nov
due to ongoing coronal hole high speed wind stream effects, particularly
at high latitudes.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
04 Nov 68
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 40% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night and after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 35-45% over the UT day.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct 83
Nov 70
Dec 70
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
05 Nov 60 Near predicted monthly values
06 Nov 70 Near predicted monthly values
07 Nov 70 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 04-Nov were
mostly near predicted monthly values. MUFs were enhanced by 35-45%
in Northern Australia. Spread F was observed at Hobart during
local night hours. Sporadic E was observed at Brisbane, Cocos
Island and Norfolk Island. MUFs are expected to be near predicted
monthly values over 05-07 Nov with mild depressions possible
on 05-Nov due to ongoing coronal hole high speed wind stream
effects.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 03 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 3.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.90E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 7%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.8
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Nov
Speed: 528 km/sec Density: 10.2 p/cc Temp: 480000 K Bz: -4 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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