[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 03 November 22 issued 2330 UT on 03 Nov 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Nov 4 10:31:00 EST 2022


SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/03 NOVEMBER 2022
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 04 NOVEMBER - 06 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** RED **     ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Nov:  R0

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Nov: 125/78


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             04 Nov             05 Nov             06 Nov
Activity     R0                 R0                 R0
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   130/84             135/89             135/89

COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 3-Nov was at the R0 level, 
with low-level C-class flaring only. There are currently five 
numbered active regions visible on the solar disk and one unnumbered 
region. AR3137 (N39E44, beta) has exhibited spot development. 
All other regions are either stable or decaying. Solar activity 
is expected to be at the R0 level over 4-6 Nov. No Earth-directed 
CMEs have been observed. The solar wind speed on UT day 3-Nov 
remained elevated, ranging from 438 to 591 km/s and is currently 
582 km/s. The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF, 
Bt) was 11 nT, and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was 
+5 to -10 nT. Several periods of sustained negative Bz were observed 
from 03/0500UT. The solar wind speed is expected to remain elevated 
over 4-6 Nov due to an equatorial coronal hole high speed wind 
stream.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Nov: G1

Estimated Indices 03 Nov : A   K           
   Australian Region      23   21255533
      Cocos Island        14   21244422
      Darwin              21   12255522
      Townsville          22   21255532
      Learmonth           23   21255533
      Alice Springs       22   11255523
      Gingin              21   21245533
      Canberra            20   11255433
      Hobart              21   22255433    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 03 Nov :
      Macquarie Island    50   21566743
      Casey               24   55343333
      Mawson              44   43445656

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 Nov : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           2   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               6   (Quiet)
      Canberra             5   (Quiet)
      Hobart              31   (Quiet to unsettled)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg        17
           Planetary             26                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         0
           Planetary              0   3433 3432     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
04 Nov    26    G0-G1
05 Nov    24    G0-G1
06 Nov    10    G0

COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 52 was issued on 3 November 
and is current for 4-5 Nov. G0-G1 geomagnetic conditions were 
observed in the Australian region on 3-Nov. G0-G2 geomagnetic 
conditions were observed in the Antarctic region with an isolated 
period of G3 at Macquarie Island magnetometer. G0-G1 geomagnetic 
conditions are expected on 4-5 Nov due to ongoing coronal hole 
high speed wind stream effects. G0 geomagnetic conditions are 
expected on 6-Nov.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
03 Nov      Normal         Normal         Fair           

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
04 Nov      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Fair
05 Nov      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Fair
06 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Normal to fair HF propagation conditions are expected 
over 4-6 Nov, with mildly degraded conditions possible due to 
ongoing coronal hole high speed wind stream effects, particularly 
at high latitudes.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
03 Nov    87

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20-25% during local night and after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 25-30% over the UT day.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 15-30% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Oct      83
Nov      70
Dec      70

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
04 Nov    72    Near predicted monthly values
05 Nov    70    Near predicted monthly values
06 Nov    75    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 3-Nov were 
mostly near predicted monthly values. MUFs were enhanced by 40% 
during local night in northern Australia. Spread F was observed 
at Hobart during local night. Sporadic E was observed at Brisbane, 
Cocos Island and Norfolk Island. MUFs are expected to be near 
predicted monthly values over 4-6 Nov with mild ionospheric depressions 
possible due to ongoing coronal hole high speed wind stream effects.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 02 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   8.4E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  3.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+08   (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:11%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B4.5

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Nov
Speed: 463 km/sec  Density:    7.0 p/cc  Temp:   133000 K  Bz:  -2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au



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