[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 03 November 22 issued 2330 UT on 03 Nov 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Nov 4 10:31:00 EST 2022
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/03 NOVEMBER 2022
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 04 NOVEMBER - 06 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Nov: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Nov: 125/78
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
04 Nov 05 Nov 06 Nov
Activity R0 R0 R0
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 130/84 135/89 135/89
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 3-Nov was at the R0 level,
with low-level C-class flaring only. There are currently five
numbered active regions visible on the solar disk and one unnumbered
region. AR3137 (N39E44, beta) has exhibited spot development.
All other regions are either stable or decaying. Solar activity
is expected to be at the R0 level over 4-6 Nov. No Earth-directed
CMEs have been observed. The solar wind speed on UT day 3-Nov
remained elevated, ranging from 438 to 591 km/s and is currently
582 km/s. The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF,
Bt) was 11 nT, and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was
+5 to -10 nT. Several periods of sustained negative Bz were observed
from 03/0500UT. The solar wind speed is expected to remain elevated
over 4-6 Nov due to an equatorial coronal hole high speed wind
stream.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Nov: G1
Estimated Indices 03 Nov : A K
Australian Region 23 21255533
Cocos Island 14 21244422
Darwin 21 12255522
Townsville 22 21255532
Learmonth 23 21255533
Alice Springs 22 11255523
Gingin 21 21245533
Canberra 20 11255433
Hobart 21 22255433
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 03 Nov :
Macquarie Island 50 21566743
Casey 24 55343333
Mawson 44 43445656
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 2 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 6 (Quiet)
Canberra 5 (Quiet)
Hobart 31 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 17
Planetary 26
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 0
Planetary 0 3433 3432
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
04 Nov 26 G0-G1
05 Nov 24 G0-G1
06 Nov 10 G0
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 52 was issued on 3 November
and is current for 4-5 Nov. G0-G1 geomagnetic conditions were
observed in the Australian region on 3-Nov. G0-G2 geomagnetic
conditions were observed in the Antarctic region with an isolated
period of G3 at Macquarie Island magnetometer. G0-G1 geomagnetic
conditions are expected on 4-5 Nov due to ongoing coronal hole
high speed wind stream effects. G0 geomagnetic conditions are
expected on 6-Nov.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Nov Normal Normal Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Nov Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
05 Nov Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
06 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Normal to fair HF propagation conditions are expected
over 4-6 Nov, with mildly degraded conditions possible due to
ongoing coronal hole high speed wind stream effects, particularly
at high latitudes.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
03 Nov 87
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20-25% during local night and after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 25-30% over the UT day.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15-30% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct 83
Nov 70
Dec 70
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
04 Nov 72 Near predicted monthly values
05 Nov 70 Near predicted monthly values
06 Nov 75 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 3-Nov were
mostly near predicted monthly values. MUFs were enhanced by 40%
during local night in northern Australia. Spread F was observed
at Hobart during local night. Sporadic E was observed at Brisbane,
Cocos Island and Norfolk Island. MUFs are expected to be near
predicted monthly values over 4-6 Nov with mild ionospheric depressions
possible due to ongoing coronal hole high speed wind stream effects.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 02 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 3.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:11%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.5
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Nov
Speed: 463 km/sec Density: 7.0 p/cc Temp: 133000 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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