[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 02 November 22 issued 2331 UT on 02 Nov 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Nov 3 10:31:14 EST 2022
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/02 NOVEMBER 2022
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 03 NOVEMBER - 05 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Nov: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Nov: 130/84
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
03 Nov 04 Nov 05 Nov
Activity R0 R0 R0
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 130/84 130/84 135/89
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 2-Nov was at the R0 level,
with low-level C-class flaring only. There are currently four
numbered sunspot regions visible on the solar disk. AR3135 (N28E06,
beta) is the most active sunspot region and appears stable. There
is one unnumbered region at N30E65 with beta magnetic characteristics
which appears stable. All other regions are either stable or
in decay. Solar activity is expected to be at the R0 level over
3-5 Nov. No Earth-directed CMEs have been observed. An East-directed
CME was observed in LASCO C2 and STEREO-A imagery from 2/1336UT.
This CME is not considered geoeffective. The solar wind speed
on UT day 2-Nov increased, ranging from 411 to 549 km/s, and
is currently near 540 km/s. The peak total interplanetary field
strength (IMF, Bt) was 10 nT, and the north-south IMF component
(Bz) range was +4 to -9. There was a sustained period of negative
Bz from 2/1120UT to 2/1600UT. The solar wind speed is expected
to remain elevated over 3-5 Nov due to high speed wind stream
effects from an equatorial coronal hole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Nov: G0
Estimated Indices 02 Nov : A K
Australian Region 7 22222321
Cocos Island 5 11112321
Darwin 6 22212221
Townsville 7 22222321
Learmonth 9 22112432
Alice Springs 7 12222321
Gingin 9 22113422
Canberra 7 12222321
Hobart 8 12223321
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 02 Nov :
Macquarie Island 25 13345631
Casey 16 44432322
Mawson 43 45433754
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 2 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 4 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 16
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 84
Planetary 6 1032 2012
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
03 Nov 12 G0, chance of G1
04 Nov 12 G0, chance of G1
05 Nov 12 G0, chance of G1
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 51 was issued on 2 November
and is current for 3-4 Nov. G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed
in the Australian region on 2-Nov. G0 geomagnetic conditions
were observed at Casey, periods of G1 and G2 conditions were
observed at Macquarie Island and G1 conditions, with a period
of G3 were observed at Mawson. G0 geomagnetic conditions, with
a chance of G1 are expected on 3-5 Nov due to ongoing coronal
hole high speed wind stream effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Nov Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
04 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
05 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
over 3-5 Nov, with mildly degraded conditions possible due to
ongoing coronal hole high speed wind stream effects, particularly
at high latitudes.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
02 Nov 74
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct 83
Nov 70
Dec 70
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
03 Nov 70 Near predicted monthly values
04 Nov 70 Near predicted monthly values
05 Nov 70 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 2-Nov were
near predicted monthly values. Spread F was observed at Hobart
during local night. MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly
values over 3-5 Nov with mild depressions possible due to ongoing
coronal hole high speed wind stream effects.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 01 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.5E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 3.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.40E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 8%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.6
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Nov
Speed: 435 km/sec Density: 4.9 p/cc Temp: 110000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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