[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 02 November 22 issued 2331 UT on 02 Nov 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Nov 3 10:31:14 EST 2022


SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/02 NOVEMBER 2022
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 03 NOVEMBER - 05 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Nov:  R0

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Nov: 130/84


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             03 Nov             04 Nov             05 Nov
Activity     R0                 R0                 R0
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   130/84             130/84             135/89

COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 2-Nov was at the R0 level, 
with low-level C-class flaring only. There are currently four 
numbered sunspot regions visible on the solar disk. AR3135 (N28E06, 
beta) is the most active sunspot region and appears stable. There 
is one unnumbered region at N30E65 with beta magnetic characteristics 
which appears stable. All other regions are either stable or 
in decay. Solar activity is expected to be at the R0 level over 
3-5 Nov. No Earth-directed CMEs have been observed. An East-directed 
CME was observed in LASCO C2 and STEREO-A imagery from 2/1336UT. 
This CME is not considered geoeffective. The solar wind speed 
on UT day 2-Nov increased, ranging from 411 to 549 km/s, and 
is currently near 540 km/s. The peak total interplanetary field 
strength (IMF, Bt) was 10 nT, and the north-south IMF component 
(Bz) range was +4 to -9. There was a sustained period of negative 
Bz from 2/1120UT to 2/1600UT. The solar wind speed is expected 
to remain elevated over 3-5 Nov due to high speed wind stream 
effects from an equatorial coronal hole.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Nov: G0

Estimated Indices 02 Nov : A   K           
   Australian Region       7   22222321
      Cocos Island         5   11112321
      Darwin               6   22212221
      Townsville           7   22222321
      Learmonth            9   22112432
      Alice Springs        7   12222321
      Gingin               9   22113422
      Canberra             7   12222321
      Hobart               8   12223321    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 02 Nov :
      Macquarie Island    25   13345631
      Casey               16   44432322
      Mawson              43   45433754

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 Nov : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        2   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               4   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg        11
           Planetary             16                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        84
           Planetary              6   1032 2012     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
03 Nov    12    G0, chance of G1
04 Nov    12    G0, chance of G1
05 Nov    12    G0, chance of G1

COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 51 was issued on 2 November 
and is current for 3-4 Nov. G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed 
in the Australian region on 2-Nov. G0 geomagnetic conditions 
were observed at Casey, periods of G1 and G2 conditions were 
observed at Macquarie Island and G1 conditions, with a period 
of G3 were observed at Mawson. G0 geomagnetic conditions, with 
a chance of G1 are expected on 3-5 Nov due to ongoing coronal 
hole high speed wind stream effects.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
02 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
03 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
04 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
05 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected 
over 3-5 Nov, with mildly degraded conditions possible due to 
ongoing coronal hole high speed wind stream effects, particularly 
at high latitudes.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
02 Nov    74

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Oct      83
Nov      70
Dec      70

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
03 Nov    70    Near predicted monthly values
04 Nov    70    Near predicted monthly values
05 Nov    70    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 2-Nov were 
near predicted monthly values. Spread F was observed at Hobart 
during local night. MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly 
values over 3-5 Nov with mild depressions possible due to ongoing 
coronal hole high speed wind stream effects.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 01 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.5E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  3.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.40E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 8%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B4.6

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Nov
Speed: 435 km/sec  Density:    4.9 p/cc  Temp:   110000 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au



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