[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 01 November 22 issued 2330 UT on 01 Nov 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Nov 2 10:30:54 EST 2022
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/01 NOVEMBER 2022
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 02 NOVEMBER - 04 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Nov: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Nov: 128/81
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
02 Nov 03 Nov 04 Nov
Activity R0 R0 R0
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 130/84 135/89 135/89
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 1-Nov was at the R0 level,
with low-level C-class flaring only. There are currently four
numbered sunspot regions visible on the solar disk. AR3133 (N28W16,
beta) and AR3136 (S07E37, beta) showed spot development over
the 24-hour period. All other sunspot regions are either stable
or in decay. There are two unnumbered regions at S13E05 and N39E64,
both regions have beta magnetic characteristics. Solar activity
is expected to be at the R0 level over 2-4 Nov. No Earth-directed
CMEs have been observed. A northwest directed CME was observed
from 1/1548UT in STEREO-A and LASCO C2 imagery. An associated
filament lift off is visible in SDO and H-alpha imagery from
1/1533UT at around N40W75. Modelling indicates this CME is not
geoeffective. The solar wind speed on UT day 1-Nov decreased,
ranging from 488 to 410 km/s, and is currently near 425 km/s.
The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 5
nT, and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was +4 to -5.
The solar wind speed is expected to continue to slowly decline
over 2-Nov due to waning coronal hole high speed wind streams.
An increase in solar wind speed is expected over 3-4 Nov due
to coronal hole high speed wind stream effects from an equatorial
coronal hole rotating towards a geoeffective position.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Nov: G0
Estimated Indices 01 Nov : A K
Australian Region 5 11223021
Cocos Island 2 00212010
Darwin 5 11223012
Townsville 6 21223022
Learmonth 5 11223021
Alice Springs 5 11223011
Gingin 5 11223021
Canberra 4 01213021
Hobart 4 01213011
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 01 Nov :
Macquarie Island 11 11335011
Casey 13 34432122
Mawson 17 23333253
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 4 (Quiet)
Canberra 6 (Quiet)
Hobart 4 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 9
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 31 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 108
Planetary 9 3232 2222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
02 Nov 8 G0
03 Nov 18 G0-G1
04 Nov 12 G0, chance of G1
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on 1-Nov. Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed
in the Antarctic region, with isolated periods of G1 at Macquarie
Island and Mawson. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected on
2-Nov as coronal hole high speed wind stream effects wane. G0-G1
conditions are expected on 3-Nov and G0 conditions, with a chance
of G1 are expected on 4-Nov due to high speed wind stream effects
from an equatorial coronal hole expected to rotate into a geoeffective
position over 3-Nov.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Nov Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
03 Nov Normal Normal-fair Fair
04 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
over 2-4 Nov, with mildly degraded conditions possible due to
coronal hole high speed wind stream effects on 3-4 Nov, particularly
at high latitudes.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
01 Nov 59
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct 83
Nov 70
Dec 70
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
02 Nov 65 Near predicted monthly values
03 Nov 50 Near predicted monthly values
04 Nov 50 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 1-Nov were
near monthly predicted values in the Australian region. With
depressions observed at Learmonth, Perth and Darwin during local
day. Spread F was observed at Hobart during local night. Sporadic
E was observed at Brisbane, Cocos Islands and Norfolk Island
during local afternoon. MUFs are expected to be near predicted
monthly values over 2-4 Nov. Mild depressions are possible on
3-4 Nov due to coronal hole high speed wind stream effects.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 31 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 3.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:14%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B5.4
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 31 Oct
Speed: 479 km/sec Density: 9.2 p/cc Temp: 259000 K Bz: -3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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