[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 01 November 22 issued 2330 UT on 01 Nov 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Nov 2 10:30:54 EST 2022


SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/01 NOVEMBER 2022
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 02 NOVEMBER - 04 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Nov:  R0

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Nov: 128/81


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             02 Nov             03 Nov             04 Nov
Activity     R0                 R0                 R0 
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   130/84             135/89             135/89

COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 1-Nov was at the R0 level, 
with low-level C-class flaring only. There are currently four 
numbered sunspot regions visible on the solar disk. AR3133 (N28W16, 
beta) and AR3136 (S07E37, beta) showed spot development over 
the 24-hour period. All other sunspot regions are either stable 
or in decay. There are two unnumbered regions at S13E05 and N39E64, 
both regions have beta magnetic characteristics. Solar activity 
is expected to be at the R0 level over 2-4 Nov. No Earth-directed 
CMEs have been observed. A northwest directed CME was observed 
from 1/1548UT in STEREO-A and LASCO C2 imagery. An associated 
filament lift off is visible in SDO and H-alpha imagery from 
1/1533UT at around N40W75. Modelling indicates this CME is not 
geoeffective. The solar wind speed on UT day 1-Nov decreased, 
ranging from 488 to 410 km/s, and is currently near 425 km/s. 
The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 5 
nT, and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was +4 to -5. 
The solar wind speed is expected to continue to slowly decline 
over 2-Nov due to waning coronal hole high speed wind streams. 
An increase in solar wind speed is expected over 3-4 Nov due 
to coronal hole high speed wind stream effects from an equatorial 
coronal hole rotating towards a geoeffective position.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Nov: G0

Estimated Indices 01 Nov : A   K           
   Australian Region       5   11223021
      Cocos Island         2   00212010
      Darwin               5   11223012
      Townsville           6   21223022
      Learmonth            5   11223021
      Alice Springs        5   11223011
      Gingin               5   11223021
      Canberra             4   01213021
      Hobart               4   01213011    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 01 Nov :
      Macquarie Island    11   11335011
      Casey               13   34432122
      Mawson              17   23333253

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 Nov : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               4   (Quiet)
      Canberra             6   (Quiet)
      Hobart               4   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              9                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 31 Oct :  A   K
           Fredericksburg       108
           Planetary              9   3232 2222     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
02 Nov     8    G0
03 Nov    18    G0-G1
04 Nov    12    G0, chance of G1

COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian 
region on 1-Nov. Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed 
in the Antarctic region, with isolated periods of G1 at Macquarie 
Island and Mawson. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected on 
2-Nov as coronal hole high speed wind stream effects wane. G0-G1 
conditions are expected on 3-Nov and G0 conditions, with a chance 
of G1 are expected on 4-Nov due to high speed wind stream effects 
from an equatorial coronal hole expected to rotate into a geoeffective 
position over 3-Nov.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
01 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
02 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
03 Nov      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair
04 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected 
over 2-4 Nov, with mildly degraded conditions possible due to 
coronal hole high speed wind stream effects on 3-4 Nov, particularly 
at high latitudes.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
01 Nov    59

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Oct      83
Nov      70
Dec      70

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
02 Nov    65    Near predicted monthly values
03 Nov    50    Near predicted monthly values
04 Nov    50    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 1-Nov were 
near monthly predicted values in the Australian region. With 
depressions observed at Learmonth, Perth and Darwin during local 
day. Spread F was observed at Hobart during local night. Sporadic 
E was observed at Brisbane, Cocos Islands and Norfolk Island 
during local afternoon. MUFs are expected to be near predicted 
monthly values over 2-4 Nov. Mild depressions are possible on 
3-4 Nov due to coronal hole high speed wind stream effects.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 31 Oct
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.7E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  3.0E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+08   (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:14%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B5.4

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 31 Oct
Speed: 479 km/sec  Density:    9.2 p/cc  Temp:   259000 K  Bz:  -3 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au



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