[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 31 October 22 issued 2331 UT on 31 Oct 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Nov 1 10:31:01 EST 2022
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/31 OCTOBER 2022
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 31 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 01 NOVEMBER - 03 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 31 Oct: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 31 Oct: 128/81
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
01 Nov 02 Nov 03 Nov
Activity R0 R0 R0
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 130/84 132/86 134/88
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 31-Oct was at the R0 level,
with low-level C-class flaring only. There are currently three
numbered sunspot regions visible on the solar disk. AR3131 (N22W20,
beta) and AR3135 (N28E32, beta-gamma) showed some trailer spot
development over the 24-hour period. AR3133 (N28W03, alpha) has
decayed. Three new unnumbered regions have appeared at S05E51,
N40E80 and S37E21, the first two have alpha magnetic classification
and all three appear stable. Solar activity is expected to be
at the R0 level over 1-3 Nov. No Earth-directed CMEs have been
observed. A east-directed CME was observed from 31/1423UT in
STEREO-A and LASCO C2 imagery. Modelling confirms this CME is
far side and not geoeffective. The solar wind speed on UT day
31-Oct remained moderately elevated, ranging from 437 to 555
km/s, and is currently near 470 km/s. The peak total interplanetary
field strength (IMF, Bt) was 6 nT, and the north-south IMF component
(Bz) range was +4 to -5. Bz was negative for the majority of
the UT day. The solar wind speed is expected to remain moderately
elevated over 1-2 Nov due to ongoing coronal hole high speed
wind stream effects. An increase in solar wind speed is expected
on 3-Nov due to coronal hole high speed wind stream effects from
an equatorial coronal hole rotating towards a geoeffective position.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 31 Oct: G0
Estimated Indices 31 Oct : A K
Australian Region 7 22212321
Cocos Island 4 11211310
Darwin 7 22211322
Townsville 8 22222322
Learmonth 7 22222321
Alice Springs 6 22211312
Gingin 8 21212421
Canberra 7 22212312
Hobart - --------
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 31 Oct :
Macquarie Island 17 22344511
Casey 13 34421322
Mawson 25 34323643
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 31 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 4 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 31 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 13
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 86
Planetary 9 2323 2222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
01 Nov 10 G0
02 Nov 10 G0
03 Nov 18 G0-G1
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on 31-Oct. Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed
in the Antarctic region, with an isolated period of G1 at Macquarie
Island and an isolated period of G2 at Mawson. Unsettled G0 geomagnetic
conditions are expected over 1-2 Nov due to ongoing coronal hole
high speed wind stream effects. G0-G1 conditions are expected
on 3-Nov due to high speed wind stream effects from an equatorial
coronal hole rotating towards a geoeffective location.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
31 Oct Normal-fair Normal Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
02 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
03 Nov Normal Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
over 1-3 Nov, with mildly degraded conditions possible due to
coronal hole high speed wind stream effects, particularly at
high latitudes on 3-Nov.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
31 Oct 64
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 74
Oct 69
Nov 69
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
01 Nov 65 Near predicted monthly values
02 Nov 65 Near predicted monthly values
03 Nov 65 Depressed 0 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 31-Oct were
near monthly predicted values to slightly enhanced in the Northern
Australian region. MUFs were slightly depressed during local
day in the Southern Australian region. Spread F was observed
at Hobart during local day. MUFs are expected to be near predicted
monthly values over 1-3 Nov. Mild depressions are possible on
3-Nov due to coronal hole high speed wind stream effects.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 30 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.8E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 3.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:12%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B5.7
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 Oct
Speed: 528 km/sec Density: 9.7 p/cc Temp: 380000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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