[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 20 May 22 issued 2330 UT on 20 May 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat May 21 09:30:49 EST 2022
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/20 MAY 2022 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 21 MAY - 23 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 May: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M3.0 0745UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 May: 166/120
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
21 May 22 May 23 May
Activity R1 R1 R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 160/114 162/116 165/119
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 20 May was at the R1 level,
with an M3.0/1B flare at 0745 UT from AR3014 (N20E03). AR3014
is complex with a Dkc/beta-gamma-delta configuration and appears
to be interacting with ARs 3015 and 3017. An unnumbered region
near N18W27 has developed and other regions are mostly stable
or in decline. Due to AR3014's complexity, solar activity is
expected to be at the R1 level with possible R2 to R3 levels
21-23 May. A southwest CME was first observed at 20/1224 UT with
activity around 1149 UT in the abovementioned unnumbered spot
region the likely origin. Analysis indicates this CME may just
graze Earth from later on 22 May. The solar wind speed range
on 20 May was elevated, 511-608 km/s, due to coronal hole effects.
The solar wind speed is currently near 600 km/s. The peak total
interplanetary magnetic field strength (Bt) was 7 nT, and the
north-south component (Bz) range was +/-6 nT. There is a very
slight chance of a weak CME arrival on 21 May from a CME first
observed on 17 May. The 20 May CME may arrive sometime in the
latter half of 22 or first half of 23 May and cause a moderate
elevation in solar wind conditions. Otherwise, the solar wind
is expected to decline towards ambient levels.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 May: G0
Estimated Indices 20 May : A K
Australian Region 7 12222223
Darwin 7 12221223
Learmonth 8 22222223
Alice Springs 7 12221223
Gingin 7 12222223
Canberra 6 12122222
Hobart 6 12122222
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 20 May :
Macquarie Island 8 01143311
Casey 21 23322634
Mawson 46 44443647
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 20 (Quiet)
Canberra 40 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 38 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 May : A
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 May : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 9 3232 2322
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
21 May 8 G0
22 May 14 G0. Possible G1 conditions.
23 May 16 G0. Possible G1 conditions.
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 20 May. G0 conditions were observed in the Antarctic
region, with an isolated period of G2 conditions. G0 conditions
are likely for the Australian region on 21-23 May. However, there
is a very slight chance of increased geomagnetic conditions on
21 May due to a possible weak CME arrival and the 20 May CME
grazing Earth and causing G1 conditions commencing in the latter
half of 22 May or on 23 May.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 May Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
22 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
23 May Normal Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
for 21-23 May. Shortwave fadeouts are possible during this period.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
20 May 91
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Apr 77
May 51
Jun 54
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
21 May 85 Near to 20% above predicted monthly values
22 May 85 Near to 20% above predicted monthly values
23 May 75 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: SWS SWF HF Communications Warning 45 was issued on 19
May and is current for 20-22 May. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) on UT day 20 May were mostly enhanced. Spread-F was observed
at Hobart during night hours and pre-dawn at Darwin. MUFs are
expected to be generally enhanced to 20% above predicted monthly
values on 21-23 May. Shortwave fadeouts are possible during this
period.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 19 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.2E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 3.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.80E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.7
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 May
Speed: 487 km/sec Density: 7.5 p/cc Temp: 207000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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