[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 21 May 22 issued 2331 UT on 21 May 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun May 22 09:31:04 EST 2022
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/21 MAY 2022 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 22 MAY - 24 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 May: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 May: 167/121
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
22 May 23 May 24 May
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 162/116 165/119 163/117
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 21 May was at the R0 level,
with a few low level C-class events from ARs 3010, 3011 and 3014.
AR3014 (N22W25) is stable with an Ekc/beta-gamma-delta configuration.
Regions 3015 (N15W06) and 3017 (N14E01) have increased in spot
count and ARs 3010 and 3011 are decaying. Solar activity is expected
to be at the R0 to R1 levels with a slight chance of R2 to R3
levels 22-24 May. A northwest CME was first observed at 20/2312
UT but the origin is uncertain. It may be related to activity
near N15W27 at the later time of 20/2339 UT. A southeast CME
at 21/1648 UT appears to be from over the east limb. The solar
wind speed range on 21 May was 453-581 km/s. The solar wind speed
is currently near 480 km/s. The peak total interplanetary magnetic
field strength (Bt) was 7 nT, and the north-south component (Bz)
range was +6/-7 nT. Further analysis of the 20/1224 UT CME indicates
it may arrive in the latter half of 23 May or first half of 24
May and cause a weak enhancement in solar wind conditions. Otherwise,
the solar wind is expected to be nearer ambient levels.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 May: G0
Estimated Indices 21 May : A K
Australian Region 8 32213310
Darwin 8 32213311
Learmonth 10 32323321
Alice Springs 8 32213310
Gingin 9 33213320
Canberra 7 22204210
Hobart 8 22204310
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 21 May :
Macquarie Island 13 23205420
Casey 11 33313330
Mawson 36 64432644
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Hobart 6 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 May : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 May : A K
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 10 2223 2323
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
22 May 9 G0
23 May 9 G0
24 May 9 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 21 May. G0 to G2 conditions were observed in
the Antarctic region. G0 conditions are likely for the Australian
region on 22 to 24 May. There is a slight chance of increased
geomagnetic conditions from late on 23 May due to a possible
weak CME arrival.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 May Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
23 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
24 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
for 22-24 May. Shortwave fadeouts are possible during this period.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
21 May 97
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 35% during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Apr 77
May 51
Jun 54
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
22 May 90 Near to 20% above predicted monthly values
23 May 90 Near to 20% above predicted monthly values
24 May 85 Near to 20% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: SWS SWF HF Communications Warning 45 was issued on 19
May and is current for 20-22 May. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) on UT day 21 May were mostly enhanced with larger enhancements
during the day and early evening. Spread F was observed at Hobart
during night hours and occasionally at Darwin and Brisbane. MUFs
are expected to be generally enhanced to about 20% above predicted
monthly values on 22-24 May. Shortwave fadeouts are possible
during this period.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 20 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.7E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 3.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.90E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.3
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 May
Speed: 544 km/sec Density: 9.7 p/cc Temp: 467000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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