[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 19 May 22 issued 2331 UT on 19 May 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri May 20 09:31:19 EST 2022
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/19 MAY 2022 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 20 MAY - 22 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 May: R2
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.1 18/2202UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
M5.6 0719UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
M1.5 1009UT possible lower European
M1.2 1516UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 May: 173/127
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
20 May 21 May 22 May
Activity R1 R1 R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 172/126 170/124 170/124
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 19-May was at R2 level, with
a M5.6 flare at 19/0719UT from AR3017 (N14E28, alpha). AR3017
exhibited a beta magnetic field at the time of the flare, but
has since decayed in magnetic complexity. Two additional M-class
flares were observed from AR3014 (N22E02, beta-gamma-delta),
a M1.5 and M1.1 at 19/1009UT and 19/1516UT respectively. AR3014
continues to be the most complex region, and has increased in
area and magnetic complexity. AR3014 has the greatest potential
to produce further M-class flares. Solar activity is expected
to be at R1 level on 20-22 May, with a slight chance of R2 level.
Several CMEs were observed, but none are considered to be geoeffective.
The solar wind speed on 19-May was mildly enhanced, ranging from
434-567 km/s, due to waning coronal hole effects. The solar wind
speed is currently near 515 km/s. The peak total interplanetary
magnetic field strength (IMF, Bt) was 11 nT, and the north-south
IMF component (Bz) range was +7 to -6 nT. The solar wind speed
is expected to slowly decrease to near background levels over
20-22 May. There is a very slight chance of a weak CME arrival
on 21-May from a CME first observed on 17-May.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 May: G0
Estimated Indices 19 May : A K
Australian Region 6 22212122
Darwin 6 22212122
Learmonth 8 22322222
Alice Springs 6 22212122
Gingin 6 22212122
Canberra 5 12212121
Hobart 6 22312112
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 19 May :
Macquarie Island 5 12312012
Casey 10 34322121
Mawson 23 53333254
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 2 (Quiet)
Gingin 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 16 (Quiet)
Hobart 23 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 May : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 May : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8 3202 2213
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
20 May 8 G0
21 May 8 G0
22 May 5 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 19-May. G0 conditions were observed in the Antarctic
region, with isolated periods of G1 observed at Mawson. G0 conditions
are likely for the Australian region during 20-22 May. There
is a very slight chance of increased geomagnetic conditions on
21-May due to a possible weak CME arrival.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 May Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
21 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
22 May Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
for 20-22 May. Shortwave fadeouts are possible during this period.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
19 May 89
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 55% during local day.
Enhanced by 50% during local night.
Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 45% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Apr 77
May 51
Jun 54
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
20 May 85 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
21 May 85 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
22 May 85 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: SWS SWF HF Communications Warning 45 was issued on 19
May and is current for 20-22 May. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) on UT day 19-May were near monthly predicted values to
slightly enhanced. Spread-F was observed at Hobart during 1300-2100UT.
MUFs are expected to be mostly near monthly predicted values
to slightly enhanced during 20-22 May. Shortwave fadeouts are
possible during this period.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 18 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.7E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 3.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.30E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.6
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 May
Speed: 489 km/sec Density: 6.8 p/cc Temp: 225000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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