[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 18 May 22 issued 2331 UT on 18 May 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu May 19 09:31:05 EST 2022
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/18 MAY 2022 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 19 MAY - 21 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 May: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.1 2202UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 May: 180/133
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
19 May 20 May 21 May
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 180/133 180/133 178/131
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 18-May was at R1 level, with
a M1.1 flare at 18/2202UT (optical location yet to be confirmed
at time of writing) and several low-level C-class flares. Majority
of the flaring has originated from the active regions in the
northeast quadrant, particularly from AR3014 (N22E15, beta-gamma).
AR3014 is the most complex region, and has increased in area
and spot count. AR3014 has the greatest potential to produce
M-class flares. Solar activity is expected to be at R0-R1 levels
on 19-21 May, with a slight chance of R2 level. A large prominence
eruption was observed in SDO and H-alpha imagery starting at
around 18/0600UT on the northwest limb, with a subsequent CME
observed in LASCO and STEREO-A imagery starting at around 18/1000UT.
This CME is not considered to be geoeffective. No other Earth-directed
CMEs have been observed. The solar wind speed on 18-May was mildly
enhanced with a declining trend, ranging from 418-542 km/s, due
to waning coronal hole effects. The solar wind speed is currently
near 480 km/s. The peak total interplanetary magnetic field strength
(IMF, Bt) was 7 nT, and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range
was +7 to -5 nT. The solar wind speed is expected to continue
to trend downwards to near background levels over 19-21 May,
although there is a slight chance that a small equatorial coronal
hole may briefly increase the solar wind speed during this period.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 May: G0
Estimated Indices 18 May : A K
Australian Region 3 22110201
Darwin 3 21101202
Learmonth 3 22110210
Alice Springs 3 22000201
Gingin 3 22110200
Canberra 3 22010201
Hobart 3 21011201
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 18 May :
Macquarie Island 2 11020100
Casey 8 33221222
Mawson 14 54322112
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 6 (Quiet)
Canberra 14 (Quiet)
Hobart 21 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 May : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 May : A K
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 13 1333 3232
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
19 May 5 G0
20 May 5 G0
21 May 5 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 18-May. G0 conditions were observed in the Antarctic
region, with an isolated period of G1 observed at Mawson in the
earlier part of the UT day. G0 conditions are likely for the
Australian region during 19-21 May.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 May Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 May Normal Normal Normal
20 May Normal Normal Normal
21 May Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
for 19-21 May. Short-wave fadeouts are possible during this period.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
18 May 87
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 75% during local day.
Enhanced by 50% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 45% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Enhanced by 35% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Apr 77
May 51
Jun 54
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
19 May 85 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
20 May 85 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
21 May 85 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: SWS SWF HF Communications Warning 44 was issued on 17
May and is current for 17-19 May. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) on UT day 18-May were near monthly predicted values to
slightly enhanced. Spread-F was observed at Hobart during 1100-2100UT.
MUFs are expected to be mostly near monthly predicted values
to slightly enhanced during 19-21 May. Short-wave fadeouts are
possible during this period.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 17 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.9E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 3.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.8
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 May
Speed: 555 km/sec Density: 10.4 p/cc Temp: 370000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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