[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 15 March 22 issued 2331 UT on 15 Mar 2022

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Mar 16 10:31:11 EST 2022 

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/15 MARCH 2022 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 16 MARCH - 18 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Mar:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
 M1/--    1239UT  possible   lower  European

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Mar: 110/60


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             16 Mar             17 Mar             18 Mar
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   110/60             108/58             108/58

COMMENT: Solar activity was moderate on UT day 15 Mar, with two 
M flares from region 2965 (N21W15) peaking at 15/1239 and 15/2246. 
There are seven numbered regions on the solar disc, with region 
2960 (S20W80) due to depart on 16 Mar. No geoeffective CMEs were 
observed. Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate for 
16-18 Mar. The solar wind speed increased slightly, now around 
around 425 km/s. Interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) total strength 
(Bt) declined from a peak of 13 nT, currently around 4 nT. The 
north-south IMF component (Bz) varied between +11 nT and -5 nT. 
Solar wind speed is likely to decline further into 17 Mar, with 
a CME expected to graze Earth late that day or early 18 Mar.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Mar: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 15 Mar : A   K           
   Australian Region       5   22202212
      Darwin               6   23201212
      Townsville           6   23202212
      Learmonth            7   23202312
      Alice Springs        5   22201212
      Gingin               4   11102212
      Canberra             4   12102212
      Hobart               6   12202312    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 15 Mar :
      Macquarie Island     3   01101221
      Casey               16   34532222
      Mawson              25   33212546

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 Mar : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              6                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        13
           Planetary             12   5221 2201     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
16 Mar     8    Quiet to Unsettled
17 Mar     8    Quiet to Unsettled
18 Mar    12    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were quiet to unsettled in the 
Australian region on UT day 15 Mar, with isolated storm periods 
in the Antarctic. Australian conditions are expected to remain 
quite to unsettled during 16-18 Mar.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
15 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
16 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
17 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
18 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Some high-latitude depressions possible during 16-18 
Mar.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
15 Mar    49

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 70% during local day.
      Enhanced by 80% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Feb      59
Mar      42
Apr      44

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
16 Mar    50    Near predicted monthly values
17 Mar    50    Near predicted monthly values
18 Mar    50    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 15 Mar were 
near predicted monthly values, with enhancements at Niue Is. 
Near monthly predicted MUFs are expected for 16-18 Mar.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 14 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   9.5E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  3.8E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B5.1

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Mar
Speed: 422 km/sec  Density:    6.8 p/cc  Temp:    66200 K  Bz:  16 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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