[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 16 March 22 issued 2331 UT on 16 Mar 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Mar 17 10:31:06 EST 2022


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/16 MARCH 2022 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 17 MARCH - 19 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Mar:  Low

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
 M1/-- 15/2246UT  possible   lower  East Pacific/
                                    North American

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Mar: 107/57


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             17 Mar             18 Mar             19 Mar
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   108/58             108/58             106/55

COMMENT: Solar activity was low on UT day 16 Mar, with X-ray 
flux below the C level, apart from the declining phase of an 
M flare from region 2965 (N21W28) on late 15 Mar. There are five 
numbered regions on the solar disc, with 2960 (S20) and 2962 
(N22) having departed. No geoeffective CMEs were observed. Solar 
activity is expected to be low to moderate for 17-19 Mar. The 
solar wind speed trended down and is now around around 385 km/s. 
Interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) total strength (Bt) peaked 
at 5 nT and is currently around 3 nT. The north-south IMF component 
(Bz) varied between +4 nT and -3 nT. A CME is expected to graze 
Earth late 17 Mar or early 18 Mar, possibly resulting in a mild 
solar wind disturbance.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Mar: Quiet

Estimated Indices 16 Mar : A   K           
   Australian Region       4   10122211
      Darwin               4   11112212
      Townsville           3   10022211
      Learmonth            4   10122211
      Alice Springs        4   00122212
      Gingin               4   01122221
      Canberra             3   10022211
      Hobart               7   30123221    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 16 Mar :
      Macquarie Island     4   00133110
      Casey               11   14322322
      Mawson              23   21222456

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 Mar : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart              12   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              6   1210 1123     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
17 Mar     8    Quiet to Unsettled
18 Mar    12    Quiet to Unsettled
19 Mar     8    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were mostly quiet in the Australian 
region on UT day 16 Mar, with an isolated storm period in the 
Antarctic. Australian conditions are expected to remain quiet 
until the possible CME arrival late 17 Mar or early 18 Mar, leading 
to unsettled conditions.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
16 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
17 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
18 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
19 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Some high-latitude depressions are possible during 17-18 
Mar.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
16 Mar    51

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 35% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Feb      59
Mar      42
Apr      44

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
17 Mar    50    Near predicted monthly values
18 Mar    50    Near predicted monthly values
19 Mar    50    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: SWS SWF HF Communications Warning 26 was issued on 15 
March and is current for 16-18 Mar. Maximum usable frequencies 
(MUFs) on UT day 15 Mar were near predicted monthly values, with 
enhancements at Cocos and Niue Is. Near monthly predicted MUFs 
are expected for 17-19 Mar.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 15 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.7E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  6.9E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B3.6

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Mar
Speed: 417 km/sec  Density:    2.6 p/cc  Temp:    89400 K  Bz:   3 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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