[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 16 March 22 issued 2331 UT on 16 Mar 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Mar 17 10:31:06 EST 2022
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/16 MARCH 2022 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 17 MARCH - 19 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Mar: Low
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1/-- 15/2246UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Mar: 107/57
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
17 Mar 18 Mar 19 Mar
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 108/58 108/58 106/55
COMMENT: Solar activity was low on UT day 16 Mar, with X-ray
flux below the C level, apart from the declining phase of an
M flare from region 2965 (N21W28) on late 15 Mar. There are five
numbered regions on the solar disc, with 2960 (S20) and 2962
(N22) having departed. No geoeffective CMEs were observed. Solar
activity is expected to be low to moderate for 17-19 Mar. The
solar wind speed trended down and is now around around 385 km/s.
Interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) total strength (Bt) peaked
at 5 nT and is currently around 3 nT. The north-south IMF component
(Bz) varied between +4 nT and -3 nT. A CME is expected to graze
Earth late 17 Mar or early 18 Mar, possibly resulting in a mild
solar wind disturbance.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Mar: Quiet
Estimated Indices 16 Mar : A K
Australian Region 4 10122211
Darwin 4 11112212
Townsville 3 10022211
Learmonth 4 10122211
Alice Springs 4 00122212
Gingin 4 01122221
Canberra 3 10022211
Hobart 7 30123221
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 16 Mar :
Macquarie Island 4 00133110
Casey 11 14322322
Mawson 23 21222456
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 12 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 6 1210 1123
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
17 Mar 8 Quiet to Unsettled
18 Mar 12 Quiet to Unsettled
19 Mar 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were mostly quiet in the Australian
region on UT day 16 Mar, with an isolated storm period in the
Antarctic. Australian conditions are expected to remain quiet
until the possible CME arrival late 17 Mar or early 18 Mar, leading
to unsettled conditions.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
18 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
19 Mar Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Some high-latitude depressions are possible during 17-18
Mar.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
16 Mar 51
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 35% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb 59
Mar 42
Apr 44
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
17 Mar 50 Near predicted monthly values
18 Mar 50 Near predicted monthly values
19 Mar 50 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: SWS SWF HF Communications Warning 26 was issued on 15
March and is current for 16-18 Mar. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) on UT day 15 Mar were near predicted monthly values, with
enhancements at Cocos and Niue Is. Near monthly predicted MUFs
are expected for 17-19 Mar.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 15 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 6.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.6
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Mar
Speed: 417 km/sec Density: 2.6 p/cc Temp: 89400 K Bz: 3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
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