[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 14 March 22 issued 2335 UT on 14 Mar 2022

Tue Mar 15 10:35:55 EST 2022

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/14 MARCH 2022 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 15 MARCH - 17 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Mar:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M2.0    0840UT  possible   lower  Mid East/Indian

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Mar: 115/66

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             15 Mar             16 Mar             17 Mar
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   116/68             114/65             116/68

COMMENT: Solar activity was moderate on UT day 15 Mar with an 
M flare from region 2965 (N21W02). There are eight numbered regions 
on the solar disc, with region 2964 (S27W82) due to depart on 
15 Mar. A south-west CME was observed in LASCO C2 at 14/1748 
from near this region, but is not expected to be geoeffective. 
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate for 15-17 Mar. 
The solar wind speed eased during 14 Mar from a maximum of 475 
km/s to around 420 km/s. Interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) 
total strength (Bt) peaked at 25 nT, and is currently around 
12 nT. The north-south IMF component (Bz) has been +ve since 
the start of 14 Mar. A weak northern hemisphere coronal hole 
will move into a geoeffective position during 15 Mar. Further 
settling of solar wind parameters is expected during 15-16 Mar 
A CME is expected to graze Earth late 17 Mar or early 18 Mar.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Mar: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 14 Mar : A   K           
   Australian Region       7   32222211
      Darwin               7   32222211
      Townsville           7   32222211
      Learmonth            9   32223311
      Alice Springs        7   32222211
      Gingin               8   42222201
      Canberra             5   12212---
      Hobart               8   42222211    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 14 Mar :
      Macquarie Island     5   32211111
      Casey               18   45431322
      Mawson              28   73322224

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 Mar : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               2   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg        15
           Planetary             19                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        30
           Planetary             45   1103 6666     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
15 Mar    15    Unsettled to Active
16 Mar     8    Quiet to Unsettled
17 Mar     8    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were quiet to unsettled in the 
Australian region on UT day 14 Mar, with an isolated storm period 
in the Antarctic. Australian conditions are expected to remain 
quite to unsettled during 15-17 Mar.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
14 Mar      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair           

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
15 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
16 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
17 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Some high-latitude depressions possible during 15-17 
Mar.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
14 Mar    44

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 35% during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 20% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Feb      59
Mar      42
Apr      44

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
15 Mar    40    Near predicted monthly values
16 Mar    40    Near predicted monthly values
17 Mar    40    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: SWS HF Communications Warning 25 was issued on 13 March 
and is current for 14-15 Mar. Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) 
on UT day 14 Mar were near predicted monthly values to about 
25% enhanced in the north, with depressions to 25% in the south. 
Geomagnetic activity has been occurring, but the interplanetary 
magnetic field has been benign. Near monthly predicted MUFs are 
expected for 15-17 Mar.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 13 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.5E+07
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.60E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B4.7

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Mar
Speed: 465 km/sec  Density:   13.0 p/cc  Temp:    99500 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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